More on the 10-cent Superfecta

In my previous article I had results from just one track, Beulah Park. In my continuing research on the superfecta I have used two other tracks, Keeneland and Tampa Bay, because they tend to have a larger field of horses in all of their races and you can bet the 10-cent superfecta in each race. Most of the other tracks have just selected races where they offer the 10-cent superfecta bet. Also, after studying the results for superfectas for a couple of weeks the payoffs are much larger at Keeneland and Tampa Bay.

I have put together an analysis that gives some insight as to how to structure a 10-cent superfecta bet so the probabilities are in your favor. Click on the link below and take a few minutes to study the analysis summary I have put into a table.

http://billwinters.org/SuperfectaAnalysis.jpg

Notice from the analysis that 84% of the time that the top 6 ranked profit line (PL) horses will be in the superfecta. Take note that the top 3 ranked horses will place more often than win. Using this information let's structure a preferred bet that will give us an edge and keep the bet to $18. So you will understand my notation PL1 stands for the number 1 ranked profit line horse. PL2 stands for the second ranked profit line horse. And so on. ALL6 equals PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5,PL6.

Our Preferred Bet then is ALL6/PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL6/ALL6.

As an example if PL1=horse#6, PL2=horse#9, PL3=horse#3, PL4=horse#2, PL5=horse#7, PL6=horse#1 then the preferred bet would be

6,9,3,2,7,1/6,9,3/6,9,3,2,7,1/6,9,3,2,7,1.

May good fortune come your way.

'til next time.

A 10-cent Superfecta Experiment

I have been running a poll on my blog "What is your success with 10 cent superfectas?". Take a look on the left side of my blog. The results so far are interesting. 45% are losing money using the 10-cent superfecta bet. 27% are making a net return of 0 to 50%. 18% are getting a net gain of 50 to 100% gain. 10% are getting over 100% net gain.

I have some useful statistics that can help with an experiment I ran today (April 8, 2008) at Beulah Race Track. If you use the Profit Line (PL), available at Twinspires.com, I have found that of the top three PL picks, one of the three will win better than 60% of the time. I have therefore formulated a High Probability 10-cent Superfecta bet that looks like this.

PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL/ALL/ALL (ALL = PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5,PL6) If there are just 6 horses in the race then ALL is all of the horses in the race. If there are more than 6 horses then use the first six Ranked PL horses. In my experiment I chose not to go above an $18 bet.

A second bet that I wanted to test was what I called the Lower Cost Obvious Bet. It again involves the first six Ranked PL horses. The Lower Cost 10-cent Superfecta bet looks like this. PL1/ALL/ALL/ALL It costs $6.

Go to the link below to see how the first and second races were bet.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820081.jpg

I followed the same pattern for each race. Go to the next link below to see the bets on races 3 and 4.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820082.jpg

The links to races 5 and 6 follow next.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820083.jpg

Races 7 and 8 are next.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820084.jpg

Race 9 follows and that completes the card for the day.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820085.jpg

What is most revealing is SUMMARY of results for the day. Click the link below to view the SUMMARY.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr82008Summary.jpg

The 10-cent super PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL/ALL/ALL paid in 7 of nine races. The Lower Cost 10-cent Superfecta bet PL1/ALL/ALL/ALL paid in only 2 races. This shows you the difference between an $18 bet and a $6 bet.

The net gain for the day was $85.21.

I hope that some of you horseplayers out there will try this approach and let me know how you do. I will be doing the same for some of the larger tracks and report on this at a later time.

Good Luck and God Bless.