The Hedge Bet for the Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby 2019 was highly unusual and the outcome was very disappointing to tens of thousands of fans at Churchill Downs on Saturday May 4th.  At first after the race was over it looked as Maximum Security #7 was the winner.  The jockey, the trainer and the fans were celebrating.  Then the stewards took an unusually long look at the last part of the race.  It seemed like forever but finally the stewards came to a decision.  They disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th.  The decision was made to disqualify Maximum Security for interference with War of Will #1 and the chain reaction with Bodepress #21 and Long Range Toddy #18.  Country House #20 who came in second was delared the winner, #13 Code of Honor who was third became the place horse and #8 Tacitus coming in fourth became the show horse.  This is the first time in Kentucky Derby history that such an outcome like this has ever occured.

If Maximum Security was left as the winner there probably would have been no Kentucky Derby controversy.

I want to illustrate and explain how my Kentucky Derby bets were structured this year so let me refer back to the article "A Different Betting Strategy"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-different-betting-strategy.html

on my blog that was published on August 25, 2012.  I showed in this article that it can be very profitable in certain wide open races that betting all the horses in the race makes sense.  Infact it can be a very good hedge bet.  The last paragraph in this 2012 article is the following:

The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a  judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.

I bet the Kentucky Derby each year with $100 to $200 in bets.  My hedge bet each year is to bet all the horses to win.  I usually have one or more superfecta bets, trifecta and exacta bets along with my hedge bet.  This year here were my bets.

$1 superfecta 16/5,17/5,8,17/5,7,8,10,13,14,17  cost $20
$2 Win/Place/Show 7  cost $6
$5 Win 5, 6, 7, 8  cost $20
$1 exacta box 7, 8, 16  cost $6
$1 exacta box 5, 7, 8   cost $6
$1 exacta box 5, 16, 17  cost $6
$1 exacta box 5, 7, 8, 16  cost $20
$2 Win/Place/Show 5, 6, 10, 16, 17 $30
$2 Win All  cost $38

I felt that Bob Baffert had three horses 16, 17, 5 in the derby so my superfecta, exacta and win, place and show bets were structured around these 3 horses.  I had Maximum Security #7 to win, place and show as well as in several exacta box bets.  The total cost of my bets was $152.  When the outcome was finally declared my hedge bet had #20 Country House as the winner and paid $132.40.  All of my other bets were worthless, however I ended the race only down $19.60.

The Movie 50/1

If you love horse racing you'll love this movie.  My wife and I happened to be in Louisville the first Saturday in May 2009 for the Kentucky Derby.  We witnessed 'Mine that Bird' coming along the rail from last to first being ridden by Calvin Borel (he's sometimes referred to as Calvin Bo-rail).  Calvin is a fantastic rider at Churchill Downs and rides the rail with many of his mounts. He has won the Kentucky Derby three times in four consecutive years.

The story behind 'Mine that Byrd' is just remarkable.  He was transported by horse van from New Mexico to Louisville just days before the Kentucky Derby.  They made fun of the 'cowboys' who trained and owned him.  He turned the tables on them in one of the most exciting Kentucky Derbys ever.

Now each Kentucky Derby day I watch the movie Again! I never get tired of watching 50/1.

2012 Breeders Cup Races Fast Approaching

The 2012 Breeders Cup Races are fast approaching.  These races have the horses that are the cream of the crop - they are the best of the best.  This fact alone means that any horse in the race can win thus handicapping is, to say the least, very difficult.

 I have kept a very detail set of notes and empirical statistics from the 2011 BC races.  It's many times very informative to see what happened last year.  It should be noted that what happens this year may be very different than what happened last year, however, knowing the potential possibility of long shots winning in any race is a very important part of your wagering strategy.

Let me summarize last year's results and point out some of the interesting things that happened.  In the 2011 BC races out of 9 races there was only one race where the favorite won.  It was not a day to bet favorites.  All 9 races had 9 or more horses in each race, some had 14.  The favorite that did win was in the 6th race the BC Turf Sprint.  Corey Nakatani rode Regally Ready for the win.  A morning line 3/1 odds favorite that paid $6.60 to win. All the other races were won by long shots and in two of the races they were very long shots, 30/1 morning line.  These two races had Black Swan long shots that won.  They were races 3 and 10. Race 3 was the BC Marathon, a 17 furlong race won by Afleet Again and ridden by Corneilio Velasquez and paid for a $2 win bet $85.20.  Race 10 was the BC Mile.  It was won by another 30/1 morning line horse.  Jon Court rode Court Vision for the win and a $2 bet paid $131.60.

Although race 2 was not one of the Breeders Cup races, Hall of Fame Jockey Mike Smith won 3 races: races 2, 5, and 11. Mike won race 5, the BC Turf Sprint, aboard Amazombie a 5/1 morning line that paid $17.80.  He also won race 11 the BC Classic riding Drosselmeyer, a 15/1 morning line that paid $31.60 to win.

The Europeans won 2 races.  Race 4 was the BC Juvenile Turf.  Ryan Moore rode Wrote a 12/1 morning line for the win that paid $25.50.  Race 8 was the BC Turf.  J. O'Brien rode St Nicholas Abbey, a 9/2 morning line, for the win which paid $15.60.

Being from Oklahoma where Donnie Von Hemel has won the training title numerous times at Remington Park, race 7 was particularly impressive to me because Caleb's Posse came roaring to the finish to win.  Donnie was the horse's trainer and the horse was owned by Oklahoman Don McNeill.  The horse was named for Don McNeill's grandson.  Don McNeill was unable to be there because he is suffering from leukemia.  Race 7 was the BC Dirt Mile.  Caleb's Posse was ridden by Rajiv Maragh and paid $15.60 to win.

Race 9 was the BC Juvenile.  Ramon Dominguez rode Hansen to the win over Union Rags and paid $16.20 for the win.

Here are the summary of results in order by race with race number, morning line, and $2 win payoff.

Race 3 30/1 $85.20, Race 4 12/1 $25.50, Race 5 5/1  $17.80, Race 6 3/1 $6.60, Race 7 5/1 $17.80, Race 8 9/2 $15.60, Race 9  10/1 $16.20,  Race 10 30/1 $131.60, Race 11 15/1 $31.60

Let's look at some "what if you had" situations.

If you rank the morning lines odds for each race from lowest to highest odds here is one way to look at the results.  Associate ML1 with the morning line favorite,  ML2 is the second morning line favorite, ML5 is the 5th morning line favorite, etc.  If you had bet $2 to win on ML1,ML2,ML3,ML4,ML5 that would be a $10 bet in each race. You would have won in races 5,6,7,8,9 for a total of $74.00. Since you don't know which races will win you have to bet all nine races.  The cost for all 9 races would have been $90.00.  A loss of $16.  About 60% of the time ML1 to ML5 do win.

Instead, 'What if ' you had bet $2 win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 for those races with 10 or more horses in the race.  In the races with 10 to 14 horses in the race which would include races 3,4,6,9,10,11 if you had bet $2 to win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 you would have won the 3rd and the 10th race.  The 3rd paid $85.20 and the 10th paid $131.60.  Actually you would have bet ML10,ML11 a $4 bet on race 3.  You would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 a $10 bet on race 4.  On race 6 you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 an $8 bet. Race 9 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 another $8 bet. Race 10 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 again another $8 bet.  In Race 11 you would have bet another $8 on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13.  This was a total of $42 to win ($85.20 + $131.60 =) $216.80.

Now 'what if' you had "bet 'em all"  in each race with a $2 win bet, how would you have made out?  Well as it turns out it would have cost you $206.00.  You would have won $347.90. A Return On Investment (ROI) of 69%.  If you look at my previous article on my blog you would see that under the proper circumstances with 'wide open races' and 'very high class horses', this is not a bad strategy and can be quite profitable.

Good luck and have fun this year on November 3rd.

A Different Betting Strategy

It may sound crazy at first but bare with me for a bit. There are some interesting characteristics of horse racing that makes it different from other wagering venues like the stock or options market trading. There are a limited number of horses in a race (usually less than 14 but sometimes as many as 20 as in the Kentucky Derby). Quarter horse races are usually no more than 10 horses. Most races are completed under 2 minutes. The results and payoffs are made available immediately after a race is finished and declared official. You know right away whether you won or lost.

 Let's consider what would happen if you bet on all of the horses in a race to win. You would for sure win the bet. However, would you make money or lose money on this bet? I was first exposed to this idea a number of years ago when I was at the Kentucky Derby and by chance entered into a conversation with an older lady from Louisville who told me that she had won the Kentucky Derby for the last twenty- five years. My reaction at the time was ... really? How did you do that? She proceeded to tell me that she always bets every horse in the Kentucky Derby to win. She did tell me the truth now didn't she. This deserves bragging rights! I got to thinking later, just how much would you win or lose over the last 8 or 10 years if you bet like she did on the Kentucky Derby? I did a little research on the internet and here is what I found with $2 bets.

                                          Odds Paid Cost Win/Lose
2012 I'll Have Another 15.30 32.60 40.00 -7.40
2011 Animal Kingdom  8.00 18.00 40.00 -22.00
2010 Super Saver        20.90 43.80 40.00 +3.80
2009 Mine that Bird     50.60 103.20 40.00 +63.20 (+37.60)
2008 Big Brown           2.40 6.80 40.00 -33.20
2007 Street Sense        4.90 11.80 40.00 -28.20
2006 Barbaro              6.10 14.20 40.00 -25.80
2005 Giacomo            50.30 102.60 40.00 +62.60 (+13.00)

For the last 4 years you would be ahead $37.60. For the last 8 years you would still be ahead but only $13.00.

 I decided to go further with this idea in everyday betting. So I started with the hypothetical idea of betting all the horses in a race and then work backwards. [The usual approach is to find the horse(s) you think is going to win and then work forward.]

If you "bet them all" then you always win the bet. Whether you gain money or lose money on the bet is something else. For example let's assume there are 8 horses in a race we pick. If you bet 7 of the 8 horses to win then the only way you lose the bet is if the one horse you didn't bet wins. Otherwise you will win the bet. Again whether you make or lose money on the bet depends on the odds of the horse that wins. To illustrate, suppose the horse that won is one of the 7 you bet to win and the horse went off at 7/1 odds. On a $2 win bet the payoff would be $16. Your cost to bet the 7 horses would be $14. Your net winnings for this bet would be ($16 - 14 =) $2. If the horse that won went off at 3/1 odds, then your net would be ($8 - 14 =) -$6 or a loss of $6. In other words you won the bet but lost money.

 If we move backwards to betting 6 or 5 or 4 or 3 or 2 horses again depends on the horses you bet or didn't bet. It will also depend on the odds the winning horse went off at and what it cost you to make the bet. If you bet 5 of 8 horses to win then you lose the bet with 3 horses and win with 5.

 Looking at win betting in this way allows you to place a bet that takes into account a possible win with a long shot or a very long shot included in the bet. Long shots do come in but when and what do you look for?

The Kentucky Derby is a good example for "betting them all" as we showed earlier. Stakes Races are also a good place to look. But why? In the Kentucky Derby there is always a large field of horses, typically 20 horses. Many of these horses will have very long odds. There is not a horse in the field that the trainer for the horse does not believe that the horse can win. These are the finest cream of the crop 3 year olds. They will all be going for it.

 This is also true for Grade I, II, and III stakes races. The advantage with the stakes races is that there is usually far less then 20 horses in the race competing. This makes the cost of the bet a lot less. Take Saratoga this summer. Race 8 on July 30th was the Shakespeare Caress Stakes. There were 8 horses in the race. Rosa Salvaie won and paid $41.40 on a $2 bet. The cost of the "bet them all" bet was $16. This was a $25.40 gain. Race 10 on August 5th was the Grade I Vanderbilt Handicap. There were 8 horses in this race. Poseidon's Warrior won and paid $74.50. This was a spectacular gain of $58.50 on a $2 bet. R1 on August 9th was the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes. There were 8 horses in this race also. Cat Feathers won this "Two And One Sixteenth Miles On The Hurdle" race and paid $48.60 for a $2 bet. This was a $32.60 gain.

The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.

What Odds do you look for in a bet?

I have often wondered what is going through the other guys head at the race track. I thought it would be interesting to set up a poll to see what odds a horse bettor looks for when he is about to bet at the track. Compared to other polls I have conducted this one turned out to be quite popular as well as informative. Actually at this point in time (half way, I set it up for two months) there has been 29 horse players who have voted with 28 days remaining for the poll to be active.

The results so far show that 55% of you look for a horse with 4/1 but less than 10/1 odds. Now what does this tell me. I'd say that more than half of you are looking for some value with your bet. After all at 4/1 odds a $20 win bet will return $100 at the low end. At the high end at 10/1 a $20 win bet will pay $220. Now that's value if you are right and the horse wins.

Now some of you are looking for the long shot to come in. 13% of you say that you look for a horse with 10/1 odds or more to bet on. They do come in. Look at the Kentucky Derby this year when Mine That Bird went off at greater than 50/1 and took home the prize, $1000+ on a $20 win bet. I'll just bet that there were more than a few folks down in El Paso, Texas who collected on this bet too. In the Belmont Stakes there was another Bird, Summer Bird that went off better than 10/1 too - and won. Now you see that with some courage and conviction that these folks can be handsomely rewarded!

Add together 55% and 13% and this amounts to 68% of you out there are looking for "value" or "super value" with your bets. Hey, I'm with you. Go for it!

Now about 30% of the time the favorite wins. I'd say most of you have the right idea. Favorites don't give back much bang for the bet. However, from the poll it looks like 32% of you like those favorites.

Exotic Bets: The Exacta

I have been running a poll on my web site http://billwinters.org/handicap2.htm for quite a while now. The results of this poll show that the exacta bet (26%)is about as popular as the win bet (25%). This leads me to taking a look at the exacta and how it can be used as a profitable bet.

The concept of the exacta is to focus on who will win and who will place after the race is over. The horseplayer considers what horses can win the race as well as the horses that can place in the race. The bet takes into account your best possible combinations for a particular race. For example, if you believe horse A will win and horse B will place then an exacta bet is very simple and inexpensive to buy (A $2 exacta costs $2.). You merely bet the exacta A with B (written as A/B). This will rarely pay off no matter how good your handicapping is. The approach to placing exacta bets is to use your handicapping results to choose those horses that you believe can win over those horses that you believe could place and see what those combinations will cost you.

Example 1: You believe that horse D will surely win but you also believe horses A,B,E and F could place. In this case you would place a bet as D/A,B,E,F. If it is a $1 exacta it would cost you $4. You would have 4 possibilities working for you: DA, DB, DE and DF.

Example 2: You believe that horse C will win and that any of the other horses in the race could
place. Your bet would be C/ALL. (A race with 10 horses in it will cost $9.)

Example 3: You believe there are several long shot horses in the race that could win and that
horses A and D will place. You would place the bet ALL/A,D.

A popular bet is the exacta box. This is a bet that allows for any of the horses in a box to win or place and you win the bet as long as both horses are included in the box bet. The limitation of the bet is the cost. Using a $1 exacta, for example, boxing two horses will cost $2, three horses $6, four horses $12, five horses $20, six horses $30, and seven horses $42.

The approach to betting the exacta is to doing some careful handicapping ahead of time. Use the
technique of throwing out those horses that you believe from your handicapping can not either
win or place. This way you can bring down the cost of the bet and at the same time maximize
your profit.

Reference: http://vote.pollit.com/webpoll2?ID=329064