A Days Analysis at the Track

So many times a horseplayer goes to the track and at the end of the day he only knows he has less money in his pocket than what he went with. He doesn't really keep track of what happened that day. It may be just a blurr in his mind. I'm going to go through a little exercise that can give some control and insight into your betting.

I've started as simple as possible with just the win bet. I'll also pick a track and the complete card (all the races) for the day. I'll also choose the M/L (morning line) favorite for my pick in each race. (This is to keep things simple.) First, there is no way to tell which races that the M/L favorite will win so we must bet the M/L favorite in each race. Again, just for simplicity let's just assume we place a $2 to win bet on the M/L favorite in each race.

I have arbitarily picked Turfway Park on the 9th of January to analyze. Here is the analysis at the end of the day. Click here:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/TurfwayWedJan9MLpicks.jpg
Note that the cost of our bets was $18 (that's $2 X 9 races). Note that the M/L favorite won in races 1, 4, and 8. Our winnings were $15.40. So we lost $2.60 for the day with this strategy.

As an alternative to the M/L I have also done an analysis using the P/L (Profit Line) that is available to you with a Twinspires account (http://twinspires.com/). Click on http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/TurfwayWedJan9PLpicks.jpg
to see what the P/L picks were for the same day. Note that the P/L pick won in races 1,2,4 and 6. Again note that the cost of betting the P/L pick in each race is $18. However, the winnings amounted to $25 so the net winnings for the day was $7.

What does this analysis tell us? First, we know where we stand at the end of the day. Secondly we are adding some discipline to our betting strategy. We also gain some insight into the lack of rewards of going with the M/L favorite all the time. I also picked a slight variation with the P/L picks to show how sensitive your betting can be. It may be the difference between winning and losing for the day. This should in no way convince you that the P/L will always produce better results. (This would need to be tested over a long period of time. I've been working on this.) However, it does show the sensitivity of outcomes depending on how you bet. This is what I am trying to illustrate here. I am also trying to show you how to raise your level of awareness in your own betting.

May luck always be with you 'til next time.