A Day at the Track Using Tote Analysis

Yesterday (Thursday, January 24th) I went to my local track (Remington Park) and chose Gulfstream as the track to play for the day. I went for the purpose of writing this article for my blog and to give you some insight into toteboard analysis.

Before I went to the track I did some preparatory work in my notebook and wrote down the morning line (M/L) and Profit Line (P/L) for each horse in each race. After getting to the track I located a good seat where I could watch the toteboard and record the odds as they came up. Basically from the 20 minute (20m) mark to the 5 minute (5m) mark I recorded the odds on each horse at 5 minute intervals. This is simple enough to do provided you don't get distracted. At the 3 minute mark I would go to the betting machine (there are lots of them at the track) and place my bet. For instructional purposes I kept everything very simple. I would only make $2 win bets on any race. (I'm usually a bit more agressive than that.) In later articles I will demonstrate other kinds of bets, but not today.

Here is how things went for the day along with my thinking as we went from race to race. I have scanned my hand notes and furnish them for you so you can see what (I recorded and) what I was looking at before the race started.

[Tote analysis for races 1,2,and 3:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg ]

Race #1 was scheduled to go off at 1:15 Eastern time. At 12:45 I was ready to start recording. I started noting that at the 20m mark that the #2 horse and the #5 horse odds both got competitive with the rest of the horses all between 2/1 and 5/1. This pattern remained about the same right down to the 5m mark. I concluded that it appeared that any of the 5 horses could win. I decided to not bet (NB) this race. (There were 8 more races to go and with plenty of opportunities to choose from.)

Race # 2 was scheduled at 1:44. There were 6 entries in race 2. As I recorded at each 5m interval I could see that the number 3 horse (the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the Profit Line favorite at 9/5) was going to also be the tote pick. I bet $2 to win on the #3 horse. The result was that #3 came in to place. I lost this one. There's an old saying at the track "you can't win them all, but you can lose them all".

On to race #3. 7 horses in this race. After getting down to the 3m mark it is obvious that the M/L, P/L and tote pick point to the #3 horse. Glancing at the program I noticed that Elvis Truillo was riding #3. (He's one of the leading riders in Florida.) It looked like a solid bet. #3 did win and paid $4.20.

[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]

Race #4 has 10 horses. However, 4 horses were scratched. (4,5,8,9). We now had a 6 horse race. With so many scratches the race changes with the M/L and P/L having little significance any longer. As I began recording the odds I began to focus on 4 horses: 1,2,7,and 10. Why? Because at the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The #10 horse at the 5m mark was taking a lot of money. I bet the 10 horse to win. The horse won and paid a handsome $15.

Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. It was too inconclusive. I decided not to bet this race.

[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]

On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. I bet the #1 horse. 2b beat the 1 horse and I lost this one.

In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The horse won and paid $3.40.

[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]

The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstream's leading rider brought the horse in to win. #3 paid $5.20 to win.

Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was inconclusive and didn't show much, so I didn't bet this race.

For the afternoon $12 was bet and $27.80 was won for a net return of $15.80 for the afternoon.

You can see a table of the results at
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Results.jpg