Making good use of the Morning Line (M/L)

One of the statistics available to the horse player is the morning line (M/L). It's available in the program at your local track as well as on the internet at http://equibase.com in the free 'entries' for every track.

The morning line is often overlooked and not given much value by both the beginning horse player as well as the seasoned player. I took a recent look at a large sample of race tracks around the country and found that at the end of the track meet that the morning line favorite won at the track between 25 to 33 percent of the time depending on the track. So on average let's say that the M/L favorite wins about 30% of the time. If you were to bet the M/L favorite all of the time you would expect to win 30% of the time. This is a pretty good average for a baseball player but it's a losing proposition for a horse player.

So what good is the morning line and is it useful? I say yes. I use the M/L as a base for comparison at the track. If you have a pad of paper with you at the track or at home while watching the tote board on your PC screen, it is very useful to watch the tote change on some horses. For example, if you see a horse in a race whose M/L is 4/1 and as post time nears you see the actual tote odds go down to say even odds or 1/1, something is going on here. There is a lot of money being bet on this horse. Why? There can be a lot of reasons which you may not know about but this horse should gain your immediate attention and you should factor this in your handicapping of the race before you bet.

Another use of the M/L, particularly in grade I, II, or III stakes races is when the M/L favorite is a heavy favorite at say, even odds (1/1). Sometimes the tote goes against the heavy favorite. It maybe 2/1, 5/2 or even 3/1. This tells you that the money bet on the horse does not match the M/L expectations. This should get your attention and you should take a second look at how you will bet the race.

I believe the morning line has some value if you integrate it in your thinking properly.