My Favorite Exacta Bet

Sunday, March 2, 2008 I played the horses at Gulfstream. I wanted to combine both tote pick analysis and my favorite exacta bet. I set the threshold for a tote pick at less than 0.5 and used both the morning line (ML) and profit Line (PL) as my base. So to do the computation you just divide the tote odds by the ML (tote odds/ML) and/or the tote odds by the PL (tote odds/PL). The tote odds will be at the 3 minute mark(3m). You will see in my notes for each race what I did.

My favorite exacta is one where I take the favorite either on the basis of the ML or the PL or the tote pick or any combination of the three. My ideal would be when the favorite is the ML favorite, the profit line favorite, and the tote pick favorite. This doesn't always happen often enough so I may use the favorite who is both the ML and PL favorite. My exacta bet would then be the favorite/ALL (ALL is all of the other horses in the race). However, my hedge for this bet is ALL/the favorite. Actually the hedge is what I am hoping will happen. Why? Because the pay off can be quite large if the favorite is beaten by one of the long shots in the race. I have seen it happen hundreds of times where a heavy favorite is beaten in the last hundred yards by one of the other horses in the race. I don't have exact statistics on this phenonemon but it is often enough to play the hedge bet.

I am going to show you my notes for every race so you can see the tote analysis as well as my thinking for each race. Let's start with race 1. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes. In race 1 at the 3 minute (3m) mark, the 7 horse is a strong tote pick with 0.375 (ML) and 0.125 (PL). For purposes of illustration I'm going to use a $2 win bet on the 7 horse. (I actually bet $20 to win. I came with a $200 bankroll.) The 7 horse did win and paid $6 for each $2 bet. A good way to start for the day.

On to race 2. Click again on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes and the tote analysis. The tote pick in this race was the 5 horse with a 0.333 (ML). Again we bet $2 win on the 5 horse. Luck is with us again and the 5 horse wins. This time the pay off is $6.40 for each $2 bet. We're feeling pretty good at this point. Let's not get too over joyed at this point and emotional. We want to keep our emotions at a minimum.

Race 3 is next so click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis for this race. At the 3m mark the 2 horse has a 0.3 (ML) value and a 0.171 (PL) value. Again we have a strong tote pick so we bet $2 win on the #2 horse. This time the 2 horse fades and isn't even in the money. So back to reality.

The 4th race is next. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. The 5 horse is the ML and PL pick. I took a look at the Daily Racing Form (DRF) and came to the conclusion that several horses could beat the 5 horse. I took a break and didn't bet this race. The hamburger tasted pretty good.

The 5th race had a couple of scratched horses. One scratch was early (#6) and one scratch was right at post time (#5). Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. Here is another race where there was no obvious tote pick so I opted to not bet this one either. As it turned out I hadn't finished my hamburger and I got in a conversation so I lost my focus. I don't like to bet in this instance.

With the hamburger and conversation out of the way I now am ready to concentrate on race 6. I have to admit that one of my favorite jockeys is John Velasquez. He is riding the #4 horse.
Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg and take a look at my notes. The 5 horse is my ideal pick however. The horse is the ML, PL, and tote pick in this race. Now is the time to to play my favorite exacta bet: 5/ALL along with the hedge bet ALL/5. Johnnie V on the 4 horse leads all the way to win the $1 exacta for $13.40. The hedge bet (4/5) pays off. However, the net gain is only $3.40.

Race 7 is the first race on the card with a lot of horses in the race (11 horses, one was scratched). This race had three particularly good indicators. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg to take a look. Notice that the 12 horse was both the ML and PL favorite. He looked to be the quality in the race. See how the odds started at the 20m mark at 7/1. Money kept coming in on the horse for 15 minutes until at the 5m and 3m marks the horse was at 5/2. I really liked seeing this. I played my favorite exacta bet 12/ALL along with the hedge (for insurance) ALL/12. The 12 horse came around wide at the 3/4 pole and went on to pass all the horses in front to win. The 2 horse came in second at 22/1 odds to produce a nice $1 exacta of $79.10.

Race 8 was a nice allowance race with 6 horses after the 4 horse was scratched. Johnnie V was on the 1 horse who was a heavy ML and PL favorite as well as the money odds 1/2 favorite at 3m to post. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg to see my notes on this race. Again I placed my favorite exacta bet 1/ALL and ALL/1. Sure enough the 1 horse won by 8 1/2 lengths. Keep your eye on this horse for the Kentucky Derby, "One Hot Wish".

Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg for the 9th race. The feature race of the day, the Davona Dale Stakes, has John Velasquez and Todd Pletcher teaming up on "Game Face" a very heavy favorite. My favorite exacta is 4/ALL and ALL/4. The 1 horse beat the 4 and again the hedge bet pays $9.40 to just about break even.

The last race, race 10, Johnnie V and Pletcher again combine on "Linkin". Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR10.jpg . There were 14 horses in the race. Two were scratched. The ML and PL favorites were the 5 horse Linkin. I bet my favorite exacta again, 5/ALL and ALL/5. The 11 horse at 14/1 outfinished Linkin at the finish by a length and 3/4. A really nice way to finish the day. The hedge bet $1 exacta paid $109.70.

For the afternoon the net gain was $152 (assuming $2 win bets and $1 exactas). This was a nice Return On Investment of 295%. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundaySummary03022008.jpg for the summary.

'til next time.