Rolling $.50 Pick 3's

Continuing with the theme of "Better Payoffs from Exotics", let's look at pick 3's. They have become very popular at most tracks. In a way they are just a continuation of doubles. You will have to look at the particular track to see which races have pick 3's. You will also have to see what the minimums are for the pick 3's because a very popular minimum is $.50 although some tracks still have $1 minimums. The next thing to look for is rolling pick 3's. Like rolling doubles, rolling pick 3's are what were looking for. This gives us the opportunity to make more bets on a day's card.

Strategy #3: For race n,  n+1, n+2: (ML1, ML3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+2

 If we piggy back on my previous article where we showed that ML1 and ML3 both win about 30% of the time then a high return (but low cost) bet for Strategy #3 becomes for race n,  n+1, n+2: (ML1, ML3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1   WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+2.  For example if n=1 then the bet would be (ML1, ML3) race 1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 2 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 3.  Further if ML1=horse 3 and ML3=horse 7 in race 1 and ML1= horse 8 and ML3= horse 2 in race 2  and ML1= horse 5 and ML3= horse 6 in race 3 then (using a) $.50 bet would be a $.50 pick 3 in race 1: 3,7 WITH 8,2 WITH 5,6 .  This would cost $4 [(2 x 2 x2)/2].

Caveat Emptor:

Having studied each of the races on a day's card, there are usually 8, 9, or 10 races per day on a card at a track.  My empirical statistics have shown that some races work better than others for strategy #3 above.  I will break the races into two categories: #1 'the race follows the form most of the time' and #2 'the race that tends to be wide open'.  The races that tend to 'follow the form' are 1,2,3,7,8,and 9.  Races 4,5,and 6 tend to be 'wide open'.  I have found that using strategy #3 with races 4,5, and 6 are losing bets a large percentage of time.  Strategy #3 seems to be quite profitable with races 1,2,3,7,and 8.  Always look at races 4,5,and 6 very closely, particulary if there are over 10 horses in the race.  In fact be leery of any race on the card with over 10 horses in the race. Strategy #3 should not be used indiscriminately. 'Wide open' races are purposefully carded with lots of horses (>10) to make the race more difficult.

Better Payoffs from Exotics

In following up on my previous article, let's look at the kind of bets that transcend races.  The first one that I will discuss is the daily double.  In the not to distant past the daily double was just available in the first two races of the day.  It then became popular to include the last two races of the day.  It now has become so popular at many tracks that they now have what has become referred to as 'rolling doubles'.  You can bet them between any two races on the card.  So let's look carefully at what I will call 'Strategy #2', the rolling double strategy.

If we piggy back on my previous article where we showed that ML1 and ML3 both win about 30% of the time then a high return (but low cost) bet for Strategy #2 becomes for race n and n+1: (ML1, Ml3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1.  For example if n=1 then the bet would be (ML1, ML3) race 1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 2.  Further if ML1=horse 3 and ML3=horse 7 in race 1 and Ml1= horse 8 and ML3= horse 2 in race 2 then (using a) $2 bet would be a $2 daily double in race 1: 3,7 WITH 8,2.  This would cost $8.

Strategy #2: (ML1, Ml3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1

Caveat Emptor:

I have also studied each of the races on a day's card.  There are usually 8, 9, or 10 races per day on a card at a track.  My empirical statistics have shown that some races work better than others for strategy #2 above.  I will break the races into two categories: #1 'the race follows the form most of the time' and #2 'the race that tends to be wide open'.  The races that tend to 'follow the form' are 1,2,3,7,8,and 9.  Races 4,5,and 6 tend to be 'wide open'.  I have found that using strategy #2 with races 4,5, and 6 are losing bets a large percentage of time.  Strategy #2 seems to be quite profitable with races 1,2,3,7,and 8.  Always look at races 4,5,and 6 very closely, particulary if there are over 10 horses in the race.  In fact be leery of any race on the card with over 10 horses in the race. Strategy #2 should not be used indiscriminately. 'Wide open' races are purposefully carded with lots of horses (>10) to make the race more difficult.

Horse Betting for Profit

Let's look at 'horse betting' like you would a business.  In any business you have to know some statistics related to the business.  You have to know the risk involved and where the odds are in your favor.  You also need a business plan.

I have spent time at the race track just observing the nature of people with respect to how they bet. You learn a lot about what NOT to do by picking up tickets on the floor after a race to see what LOSING bets were made for that race.  It is very revealing.  Try it some time.

For years I have collected 'empirical statistics' at specific tracks as well as across tracks. One statistic that holds true for most tracks in the US and Canada is that the morning line favorite in the 'long run' wins between 28 and 32 percent of the time depending on the track.  This is very useful if you looking at 'horse betting' as you would in a business.  There is one other 'empirical statistic' to go along with this one that is very important and most people are completely unaware of.  Here it is.  The third morning line favorite wins between 25 and 30 percent of the time in the 'long run'.  This is true across tracks.  Now how can this information be used to structure a betting pattern that can lead to a 'long run' profit if followed consistently?

To be a bit more specific let me introduce some symbols and definitions.  Let's define the 'morning line favorite' with ML1 and the 'third morning line favorite' with ML3.  From the empirical statistics above (of all the horses in a race) ML3 will win almost as often as ML1.  Both win about 30% of the time.  Just knowing these two empirical statistics gives you important information on structuring your bets inorder to have the odds in your favor.

Using the notation ML1,ML2,ML3,ML4,...,MLn 'n' stands for 'the number of horses in the race'. If n=10, then there are 10 horses in the race etc.  The morning line odds are always readily available for any race at any track. I have chosen, over the years, to stick with the morning line odds because of this fact.  [Remember we're considering 'betting' as a business.]  We need data that is always available and reliable.

Let me point out an observation that should be obvious.  ML3 will always be larger than ML1 (ML3>ML1).  Therefore the payoffs for ML3 are always larger.  As an example, ML1 might be 7/5 and ML3 might be 7/2. Don't be fooled, sometimes when the horse that starts out as the third morning line favorite (ML3) suddenly becomes the 'tote board favorite' when large amounts of money are placed on the ML3 horse before post time.

So let's take the information we have layed out above and propose a 'business plan strategy'.

Strategy #1: Place a $3 to win on the horse ML3 and a $5 to show on the horse ML1.

"Over the long run" this approach works well.  Note that depending on your tolerance for bet size this could be $6 to win on ML3 and $10 to show on ML1 or $30 to win on ML3 and $50 to show on ML1.  You decide.  I have tested the ratio over time and it is about right for a "long run" return on investment (ROI) of 15 to 20%.

Caveat Emptor:

I have also studied each of the races on a day's card.  There are usually 8, 9, or 10 races /day on a card at a track.  My empirical statistics have shown that some races work better than others for strategy #1 above.  I will break the races into two categories: #1 'the race follows the form most of the time' and #2 'the race that tends to be wide open'.  The races that tend to follow the form are 1,2,3,7,8,and 9.  Races 4,5,and 6 tend to be wide open.  I have found that using strategy #1 with races 4,5, and 6 are losing bets a large percentage of time.  Strategy #1 seems to be quite profitable with races 1,2,3,7,8 and 9.  Always look at races 4,5,and 6 very closely, particulary if there are over 10 horses in the race.  In fact be leery of any race on the card with over 10 horses in the race. Strategy #1 should not be used indiscriminately. 'Wide open' races are purposefully carded with lots of horses (>10) to make the race more difficult.

2012 Breeders Cup Races Fast Approaching

The 2012 Breeders Cup Races are fast approaching.  These races have the horses that are the cream of the crop - they are the best of the best.  This fact alone means that any horse in the race can win thus handicapping is, to say the least, very difficult.

 I have kept a very detail set of notes and empirical statistics from the 2011 BC races.  It's many times very informative to see what happened last year.  It should be noted that what happens this year may be very different than what happened last year, however, knowing the potential possibility of long shots winning in any race is a very important part of your wagering strategy.

Let me summarize last year's results and point out some of the interesting things that happened.  In the 2011 BC races out of 9 races there was only one race where the favorite won.  It was not a day to bet favorites.  All 9 races had 9 or more horses in each race, some had 14.  The favorite that did win was in the 6th race the BC Turf Sprint.  Corey Nakatani rode Regally Ready for the win.  A morning line 3/1 odds favorite that paid $6.60 to win. All the other races were won by long shots and in two of the races they were very long shots, 30/1 morning line.  These two races had Black Swan long shots that won.  They were races 3 and 10. Race 3 was the BC Marathon, a 17 furlong race won by Afleet Again and ridden by Corneilio Velasquez and paid for a $2 win bet $85.20.  Race 10 was the BC Mile.  It was won by another 30/1 morning line horse.  Jon Court rode Court Vision for the win and a $2 bet paid $131.60.

Although race 2 was not one of the Breeders Cup races, Hall of Fame Jockey Mike Smith won 3 races: races 2, 5, and 11. Mike won race 5, the BC Turf Sprint, aboard Amazombie a 5/1 morning line that paid $17.80.  He also won race 11 the BC Classic riding Drosselmeyer, a 15/1 morning line that paid $31.60 to win.

The Europeans won 2 races.  Race 4 was the BC Juvenile Turf.  Ryan Moore rode Wrote a 12/1 morning line for the win that paid $25.50.  Race 8 was the BC Turf.  J. O'Brien rode St Nicholas Abbey, a 9/2 morning line, for the win which paid $15.60.

Being from Oklahoma where Donnie Von Hemel has won the training title numerous times at Remington Park, race 7 was particularly impressive to me because Caleb's Posse came roaring to the finish to win.  Donnie was the horse's trainer and the horse was owned by Oklahoman Don McNeill.  The horse was named for Don McNeill's grandson.  Don McNeill was unable to be there because he is suffering from leukemia.  Race 7 was the BC Dirt Mile.  Caleb's Posse was ridden by Rajiv Maragh and paid $15.60 to win.

Race 9 was the BC Juvenile.  Ramon Dominguez rode Hansen to the win over Union Rags and paid $16.20 for the win.

Here are the summary of results in order by race with race number, morning line, and $2 win payoff.

Race 3 30/1 $85.20, Race 4 12/1 $25.50, Race 5 5/1  $17.80, Race 6 3/1 $6.60, Race 7 5/1 $17.80, Race 8 9/2 $15.60, Race 9  10/1 $16.20,  Race 10 30/1 $131.60, Race 11 15/1 $31.60

Let's look at some "what if you had" situations.

If you rank the morning lines odds for each race from lowest to highest odds here is one way to look at the results.  Associate ML1 with the morning line favorite,  ML2 is the second morning line favorite, ML5 is the 5th morning line favorite, etc.  If you had bet $2 to win on ML1,ML2,ML3,ML4,ML5 that would be a $10 bet in each race. You would have won in races 5,6,7,8,9 for a total of $74.00. Since you don't know which races will win you have to bet all nine races.  The cost for all 9 races would have been $90.00.  A loss of $16.  About 60% of the time ML1 to ML5 do win.

Instead, 'What if ' you had bet $2 win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 for those races with 10 or more horses in the race.  In the races with 10 to 14 horses in the race which would include races 3,4,6,9,10,11 if you had bet $2 to win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 you would have won the 3rd and the 10th race.  The 3rd paid $85.20 and the 10th paid $131.60.  Actually you would have bet ML10,ML11 a $4 bet on race 3.  You would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 a $10 bet on race 4.  On race 6 you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 an $8 bet. Race 9 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 another $8 bet. Race 10 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 again another $8 bet.  In Race 11 you would have bet another $8 on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13.  This was a total of $42 to win ($85.20 + $131.60 =) $216.80.

Now 'what if' you had "bet 'em all"  in each race with a $2 win bet, how would you have made out?  Well as it turns out it would have cost you $206.00.  You would have won $347.90. A Return On Investment (ROI) of 69%.  If you look at my previous article on my blog you would see that under the proper circumstances with 'wide open races' and 'very high class horses', this is not a bad strategy and can be quite profitable.

Good luck and have fun this year on November 3rd.

A Different Betting Strategy

It may sound crazy at first but bare with me for a bit. There are some interesting characteristics of horse racing that makes it different from other wagering venues like the stock or options market trading. There are a limited number of horses in a race (usually less than 14 but sometimes as many as 20 as in the Kentucky Derby). Quarter horse races are usually no more than 10 horses. Most races are completed under 2 minutes. The results and payoffs are made available immediately after a race is finished and declared official. You know right away whether you won or lost.

 Let's consider what would happen if you bet on all of the horses in a race to win. You would for sure win the bet. However, would you make money or lose money on this bet? I was first exposed to this idea a number of years ago when I was at the Kentucky Derby and by chance entered into a conversation with an older lady from Louisville who told me that she had won the Kentucky Derby for the last twenty- five years. My reaction at the time was ... really? How did you do that? She proceeded to tell me that she always bets every horse in the Kentucky Derby to win. She did tell me the truth now didn't she. This deserves bragging rights! I got to thinking later, just how much would you win or lose over the last 8 or 10 years if you bet like she did on the Kentucky Derby? I did a little research on the internet and here is what I found with $2 bets.

                                          Odds Paid Cost Win/Lose
2012 I'll Have Another 15.30 32.60 40.00 -7.40
2011 Animal Kingdom  8.00 18.00 40.00 -22.00
2010 Super Saver        20.90 43.80 40.00 +3.80
2009 Mine that Bird     50.60 103.20 40.00 +63.20 (+37.60)
2008 Big Brown           2.40 6.80 40.00 -33.20
2007 Street Sense        4.90 11.80 40.00 -28.20
2006 Barbaro              6.10 14.20 40.00 -25.80
2005 Giacomo            50.30 102.60 40.00 +62.60 (+13.00)

For the last 4 years you would be ahead $37.60. For the last 8 years you would still be ahead but only $13.00.

 I decided to go further with this idea in everyday betting. So I started with the hypothetical idea of betting all the horses in a race and then work backwards. [The usual approach is to find the horse(s) you think is going to win and then work forward.]

If you "bet them all" then you always win the bet. Whether you gain money or lose money on the bet is something else. For example let's assume there are 8 horses in a race we pick. If you bet 7 of the 8 horses to win then the only way you lose the bet is if the one horse you didn't bet wins. Otherwise you will win the bet. Again whether you make or lose money on the bet depends on the odds of the horse that wins. To illustrate, suppose the horse that won is one of the 7 you bet to win and the horse went off at 7/1 odds. On a $2 win bet the payoff would be $16. Your cost to bet the 7 horses would be $14. Your net winnings for this bet would be ($16 - 14 =) $2. If the horse that won went off at 3/1 odds, then your net would be ($8 - 14 =) -$6 or a loss of $6. In other words you won the bet but lost money.

 If we move backwards to betting 6 or 5 or 4 or 3 or 2 horses again depends on the horses you bet or didn't bet. It will also depend on the odds the winning horse went off at and what it cost you to make the bet. If you bet 5 of 8 horses to win then you lose the bet with 3 horses and win with 5.

 Looking at win betting in this way allows you to place a bet that takes into account a possible win with a long shot or a very long shot included in the bet. Long shots do come in but when and what do you look for?

The Kentucky Derby is a good example for "betting them all" as we showed earlier. Stakes Races are also a good place to look. But why? In the Kentucky Derby there is always a large field of horses, typically 20 horses. Many of these horses will have very long odds. There is not a horse in the field that the trainer for the horse does not believe that the horse can win. These are the finest cream of the crop 3 year olds. They will all be going for it.

 This is also true for Grade I, II, and III stakes races. The advantage with the stakes races is that there is usually far less then 20 horses in the race competing. This makes the cost of the bet a lot less. Take Saratoga this summer. Race 8 on July 30th was the Shakespeare Caress Stakes. There were 8 horses in the race. Rosa Salvaie won and paid $41.40 on a $2 bet. The cost of the "bet them all" bet was $16. This was a $25.40 gain. Race 10 on August 5th was the Grade I Vanderbilt Handicap. There were 8 horses in this race. Poseidon's Warrior won and paid $74.50. This was a spectacular gain of $58.50 on a $2 bet. R1 on August 9th was the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes. There were 8 horses in this race also. Cat Feathers won this "Two And One Sixteenth Miles On The Hurdle" race and paid $48.60 for a $2 bet. This was a $32.60 gain.

The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.

The Spring Quarterhorse Meet at Remington Park 2011

The Spring Quarterhorse Meet at Remington Park has begun on March 2nd. The first few days have been devoted mostly to qualifying trials for the upcoming stakes races. The 2 year olds have been competing at 300 yards for the Oklahoma Futurity. The 3 year olds have been competing at 350 yards for the Oklahoma Derby.

This meet we're going to be keeping track of some of the statistics related to our success last year with side-by-side betting that we have concentrated on in the past. I'll also be looking in this meet for horses that will be hooking up as side-by-side pairs as well as three or four horses that may be hooking up to create a race within a race. We'll be looking for ways to detect these patterns. Hopefully, the frequency will occur often enough to make the patterns of this type betting profitable. I'll be reporting on this as the meet proceeds and I'll give you some statistics to show the results.

It will also be important this time to show how to preserve your betting capital by detecting those races to avoid. This is as important as finding those races that will be profitable.

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In the first 18 racing days of the 2011 Quarter Horse meet there have been 51 side-by-side bet results.  This is on average 2.83 side-by-side bet results per day. The average exacta payoff is $64.70. G R Carter was involved with either the win or place position of the side-by-side bet 17 out of 51 times. That's one third of the
time. Carter's average exacta payoff was $47.41. His highest exacta payoff was
$144.80 and the lowest was $7.80.

If Jimmy Brooks, and Larry Payne were included then 60% of the side-by-side bet
payouts involved these three. 6 out of 51 were Black Swan results. The average
Black Swan payout was $172.23.

The results for the first 17 days are found at this link.
http://billwinters.org/2011QuarterHorseMeet/SideBySideResults.pdf/

Previously in my blog for those unfamilar with 'Side-by-side Betting' here are
several articles about
"Side-By-Side Quarter Horse Bets"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/side-by-side-quarter-horse-bets.html,

"Remington Park Quarterhorse Side-by-side Results"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/remington-park-quarterhorse-side-by.html,

"Side-by-side Betting with Trifectas"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/side-by-side-betting-with-trifectas.html,

"Side-by-side Betting with Ten Cent Superfectas"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/04/side-by-side-betting-with-ten-cent.html and

"Black Swan Betting"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2009/08/black-swan-betting.html