Rolling $.50 Pick 3's

Continuing with the theme of "Better Payoffs from Exotics", let's look at pick 3's. They have become very popular at most tracks. In a way they are just a continuation of doubles. You will have to look at the particular track to see which races have pick 3's. You will also have to see what the minimums are for the pick 3's because a very popular minimum is $.50 although some tracks still have $1 minimums. The next thing to look for is rolling pick 3's. Like rolling doubles, rolling pick 3's are what were looking for. This gives us the opportunity to make more bets on a day's card.

Strategy #3: For race n,  n+1, n+2: (ML1, ML3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+2

 If we piggy back on my previous article where we showed that ML1 and ML3 both win about 30% of the time then a high return (but low cost) bet for Strategy #3 becomes for race n,  n+1, n+2: (ML1, ML3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1   WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+2.  For example if n=1 then the bet would be (ML1, ML3) race 1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 2 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 3.  Further if ML1=horse 3 and ML3=horse 7 in race 1 and ML1= horse 8 and ML3= horse 2 in race 2  and ML1= horse 5 and ML3= horse 6 in race 3 then (using a) $.50 bet would be a $.50 pick 3 in race 1: 3,7 WITH 8,2 WITH 5,6 .  This would cost $4 [(2 x 2 x2)/2].

Caveat Emptor:

Having studied each of the races on a day's card, there are usually 8, 9, or 10 races per day on a card at a track.  My empirical statistics have shown that some races work better than others for strategy #3 above.  I will break the races into two categories: #1 'the race follows the form most of the time' and #2 'the race that tends to be wide open'.  The races that tend to 'follow the form' are 1,2,3,7,8,and 9.  Races 4,5,and 6 tend to be 'wide open'.  I have found that using strategy #3 with races 4,5, and 6 are losing bets a large percentage of time.  Strategy #3 seems to be quite profitable with races 1,2,3,7,and 8.  Always look at races 4,5,and 6 very closely, particulary if there are over 10 horses in the race.  In fact be leery of any race on the card with over 10 horses in the race. Strategy #3 should not be used indiscriminately. 'Wide open' races are purposefully carded with lots of horses (>10) to make the race more difficult.

Handicapping versus Betting Strategies

Handicapping is about finding the horse or horses that could win. Betting strategies are about configuring a bet to include enough combinations to win the bet. Let me give you some examples. I'll talk about Bob in these examples.

Bob brings up on his computer the past performances (PP's) for a race he wants to handicap. He looks to see the type of race and the length of the race. He then looks through all of the horses in the race. Bob likes to keep track of the hot jockey/trainer winning combinations at this track. He especially looks to see if any of these attractive combinations are in this race. Bob then looks at each horse in the race and carefully studies the PP's of each horse. Bob likes to go through and eliminate all the horses he thinks have no chance or at very little chance of winning this race. Bob is trying to determine just how many horses are solid winning candidates in the race. Bob would like to narrow his list down to as few horses as possible. Ideally it would be nice to single just one horse. In most races he knows that this is impossible. He can usually narrow his list down to 2, 3, or 4 horses. If there are more than that Bob has no trouble in deciding to just not bet this race. Bob knows that unrealistic bad bets can reduce his bankroll. He knows that Minimizing his losses contributes to a higher ROI at the end of the day.

Now let's see how Bob handles his betting strategies. Bob has favorite kinds of bets that he is most confident in making. If he can single a horse in a race, especially if it's not the favorite, he likes to place a win bet. Sometimes it is a sizable bet. As a hedge, Bob will quite often place a 'win-place' bet on this horse. Bob is aware that this situation is very infrequent. So Bob looks to other kinds of bets that he likes. Bob also likes exactas. He is fond of finding 2, 3, or 4 horses in his handicapping where these horses he expects to dominate the race. Infact he feels confident that anyone of these horses could win or place. When Bob finds just two horses he will box those two horses in an exacta. Depending on his confidence level, he will measure the size of his bet. For three or four horses he would box them in an exacta also. Bob is always mindful of his bankroll balance.

I hope that these examples give you an idea of the differences between handicapping and betting strategies. Also I hope you see how the two are connected and depend on each other.

I will follow up later in this blog to explain how Bob may make other bets he likes such as trifectas, superfectas, doubles, pick 3's, pick 4's. I will show you how Bob can combine his handicapping skills with thoughtful betting strategies.

Good luck and have fun playing the ponies.

'til next time.

Using the Profit Line

If you have a Twinspires account you are probably familiar with the Profit Line (PL). It is a tool provided by Twinspires for its account holders. I have used it alot and found it very useful.

As many of you may know my home track is Remington Park. This meet I have been concentrating on pick3's and pick4's. I have used the profit line (PL) to my advantage in making my pick3 and pick4 selections. Being a statistician by profession (although retired now) I like to keep track of my bets and the corresponding results. I have put together for 34 racing days so far this meet a chart of my findings
( http://bwinters_2.tripod.com/ProfitLineAnalysis.jpg ). My chart has the PL positions from most favorite to least favorite along the top and the race number down the side. Keeping track of the winning PL position in each race here are my findings.

Remington Park (RP) has rolling pick3's starting with race 3 through race 7. Most of the time RP has 9 races on the card each racing day. Sometimes there are 10 races when special days have stakes races. In this case the pick4 will be races 7-10. Otherwise, the pick4 is races 6-9.

I kept track each race day from August 22 to October 26 in this study. Here is a summary of my results. It appears that race 5 is the most difficult because you have to go 5 deep in the PL on most days to find a winner. Races 3,7 and 8 can be singled on many days with success using the top PL choice. Using my results here is the pattern for the pick3 bet starting with race 3 PL1/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 (THESE ARE PROFIT LINE CHOICES). For a $1 pick3 this is a $15 bet. Getting past race 3 occurs about 50% of the time. In race 4 the PL choices PL1,PL2,PL3 win about 70% of the time. In race 5 the PL choice PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 will win about 80% of the time. In summary then if you were to bet this pick3 each day then one half of the time you will get past race 3 which is the first step necessary for the bet to win and pay off. The five pick3 combinations starting with race 3 and going through race 7 are as follows:

Race 3 PL1/PL1,PL2,PL3/ PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 cost $15

Race 4 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5/PL1,PL2,PL3 cost $45

Race 5 PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1 cost $15

Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1/PL1 cost $6 (assume a $2 pick3)

Race 7 PL1/PL2/PL1,PL2 cost $4 (assume a $2 pick3)

My two pick4's bets in race 6 are:

Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1/PL1/PL1,PL2 cost $12 (assume a $2 pick4)

Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2 cost $54 (assume a $1 pick4)

Depending on your bankroll you can use as many of these as you choose or limit the number of pick3's you bet on to stay within the cost constraints of your bankroll.

Pick 3 Aberrations

As you know from my previous blog I have been testing new strategies using the pick 3. In this article I want to show you two extreme aberrations that have occurred in the course of a week; the Belmont Stakes on June 7th and high profile races at Churchill Downs on June 14th. Since writing my last blog "Pick 3 Research" I have been concentrating on pick 3 strategies that locate races where the favorite has a high probablility of winning. A race that had one of the highest probabilities of winning was the Belmont Stakes. Big Brown was a certain winner if there ever was one. (I was not alone in this assessment.) It was almost certain until the race was run. Probabilities are just probabilities, no matter how high they are and nothing more. Anything can happen in a race and it did.

As a strategy that I was testing on June 7th I chose to arrange three pick 3 bets using Big Brown to win in the 11th race. The first pick 3 started in race 9, the second started in the 10th, and the third started in the 11th race. Here is a case where all three bets lost with Big Brown losing in the 11th. What is the lesson to be learned from this. The outcome in one race can affect several other bets. Betting across races can be very costly even with smaller amounts of money. Also you have to wait until the races in the bet are completed to know whether you have a winning ticket. Betting within a race has more immediate gratification. This experience has given me insight into aberrations that can occur in strategies that sometimes are overlooked.

On June 14th, a week later, I experienced a new and highly improbable aberration at Churchill Downs. I saw before my eyes 6 morning line favorites win 6 consecutive races. These races also happened to be the 6 races in the pick 6. The probability of this happening is very very small. Starting with the 6th race there were 4 consecutive pick 3's that had 3 favorites in the outcome. The probability of this happening is .03.

Let me summarize the results for both weekends. On Belmont Stakes day there was no ticket that hit the pick 6. It carried over to the following Wednesday. The horseplaying public could not visualize Big Brown losing. (That included me!) However, there were some pick 3 and pick 4 players who won on the pick 3 starting in the 9th race, $6,475.00, and $34,287.00 on the pick 4 that started in the 8th race. Because of the cost factor being lower there were long shots (infact, the longest on the board) included in the pick 3 and pick 4 combinations for race 11. On June 14th at Churchill Downs the morning line favorites Hystericalady, Pure Clan, Pyro, Tizdejavu, Curlin, and Dreaming of Anna were the winning picks in the pick 6 which paid $48.00. The $2 pick 3's starting with race 6 paid $14.60, 47.00, 31.80, 19.40 respectively.

What a difference a week makes in the extremes of horse racing. Stay tuned for results of my research.

'til then.

Pick 3 Research

Thanks to a comment I received on my blog from a reader, I was pointed to an article (http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf) on research about the pick 3. The article was couched in some mathematical statistics but has revealed some interesting results that may prove to be quite useful in developing some betting strategies. I am in the process of using these results in some experiments to see their usefulness. I will report to you at a later time about what I have found out.

Here are the obvious points that sparked my interest from this article. First, when you look at a pick 3 you are looking for the horses that will win in three consecutive races. Further, you focus in on whether the favorite in the race will win. It is well known that the favorite in a race will win about 30% (+-3%) of the time at any track in the country. Concentrating on the pick 3 you wonder how many pick 3's will have 0 favorites in the final outcome. How many will have 1 favorite in the final outcome. How many will have 2 favorites when the races are finished. How many will have 3 favorites in the final outcome. This article gives us some statistical evidence about what to expect.

An empirical analysis at Santa Anita by the author showed that out of 176 wagering opportunities that a pick 3 with no (0) winning favorites in the outcome occurred 36% of the time. With 1 favorite in the outcome, this occurred 42% of the time. With 2 favorites in the outcome, this occurred 19% of the time. With all three favorites in the outcome, this occurred just 3% of the time. What does this suggest? Don't depend on the favorite in your pick 3's. If you do include the favorite expect only one favorite in the outcome. 78% of the time there will be only 1 favorite or no favorites at all in the outcome. It takes guts to follow these results because the betting public tends to always include the favorites in their choice of pick 3 combinations. This therefore raises the cost of the bet when the cost does not match the benefit.

I will be looking at some strategies that take into account these statistical results.

Stay tuned ... I'll report back to you later.