When the Unexpected Happens

I was at the race track watching the tote board for the 8th race at Finger Lakes on Tuesday, August 9th 2016.  From the beginning the #3 horse was the heavy favorite.  In fact, about 5 minutes to post time the tote odds were as low as 1/9.  You can't get any lower than that. All the the "win money" was on the #3 horse. This looked like a good place to play some exotics with the 3 horse on top.  This was an allowance race with 6 horses in the race.  What was interesting was that 5 of the 6 horses were at double digit odds right up to 1 minute to post time.  In fact 3 of the horses were more than 20/1 and one of the horses was 40/1.  This really made the favorite a "shoe in" according to the betting public on the tote board.

Sometimes when something like this looks too good to be true.  Guess what?  The unexpected happens.  From my past experience I have observed that many times, in fact, quite often this heavy favorite gets beat.  So along with exotics that use the heavy favorite in the win position it is worth while placing some hedge bets also.

Here are the final toteboard odds.

Horse 1 15/1
Horse 2 12/1
Horse 3 3/5
Horse 4 4/1
Horse 5 3/1
Horse 6 30/1

Here are the bets I made including hedge bets.

$2 exacta 3/1,2,4,5,6 (Cost: $10)
Hedge bets:
$2 exacta 3,4,5/1,2,6 (Cost: $18)
$1 trifecta 3,4,5/1,2,6/3,4,5 (Cost: $18)
$1 superfecta 3,4,5/1,2,6/3,4,5/1,2,6 (Cost: $36)

Total cost: $82

Here's how the race turned out, the race result. 4-6-3-1

The payouts for this race:

$2 exacta 4-6 paid: $185.00
$1 trifecta 4-6-3 paid: $259.50
$1 superfecta paid: $980.00
Total payout: $1424.50

To verify these results go to Equibase.com. Then go to results for Finger Lakes. Select August 9,2016 and race #8.

Wow, when the unexpected happens!  And with just 6 horses in the race.

Positioning your bets to win

I have spent a lot of time over the years at the race track and I've talked with lots of horseplayers as well as observed their habits and actions.  Let me share with you some things I've noticed .  Have you ever seen a horseplayer pour over the Daily Racing Form searching for the horse that will win?  Have you ever seen the guy who rushes up to the teller window at the last minute to place a bet on a horse that he has finally decided on at the last minute?  Have you ever heard several horseplayers discuss after a race how they "shoulda, woulda, or coulda" won that race?  Have you ever seen the horseplayer with several tip sheets trying to determine what bet or bets he'll make?  Have you ever picked up losing tickets on the floor after a race and seen the exotic bets that were made with small amounts of money?  There are certainly as many ways to bet as you can possibly imagine.  Also notice that in every race someone places a bet on every horse that is in the race.  It doesn't matter what the odds are there is always someone who is placing a bet on that horse.  There are some horseplayers who love to bet high odd horses. One way to look at it is that no win bet is really a bad bet because any horse in the race could potentially win.  When you consider that a morning line favorite horse in a race wins only about 1/3 of the time.  This means that a non-favorite wins 2/3 of the time.

So how does one position his bets to win?  Over time there are three  principles that lead to success: careful study, personal knowledge, and gut feel.

Careful study should start with doing your homework ahead of time.  This, in the worse possible case, means don't just go to the track unprepared.  There are so many ways to prepare the night before or the day before using the (printed) Daily Racing Form or DRF.com or Equibase.com.  This will enhance your LUCK tremendously.

Personal knowledge is something you acquire by getting to know the horses, jockeys, trainers, owners, and tracks.  As a suggestion at any track you should become familar with the winningest jockeys and trainers.  Also get familar with the winningest jockey-trainer combinations.

With experience over extended periods of time you will acquire a 'gut feel'.  This is true of any endeaver but especially horse handicapping and betting.  You'll know you have enough experience when the 'feel' is apparent in your awareness.

I have numerous articles in my blog that tell you about many betting strategies as well as many handicapping approaches.  Browse through my blog and take a look.

The very best of luck to each of you.

What I Should Know About Handicapping and Betting

[I am being encouraged by friends and new acquaintenaces at my home race track to write some articles for beginners.]

What is horse handicapping and what should I know about betting?

Handicapping a horse race is about determining which horse (or horses) could win the race. Betting is about determining what kind of a bet to place and how to configure it. Let's talk about handicapping first. When you go to a race track you can purchase a newspaper called the Daily Racing Form (DRF). The DRF has long been the means to getting a look at the Past Performances (PP) for all horses in a race. If you have the internet you can use your PC to access the PP's before you ever get to the track. Just go to DRF.com, pick the track and date. Reading the DRF PP's, if you are new to it may seem quite formitable. If you want to become more serious about handicapping and picking potential winners I suggest you study the form (DRF) and become familiar with the terminology in it. Those who do not use the form may resort to tip sheets. These are put together and sold by individuals who rate horses in a race. I have found that if you are at the track strictly for fun then tip sheets may be an easy way to skip the handicapping, use someone elses picks and have fun.

Placing a bet is determining what kind of a bet you will make and how you will structure it. There are many bets that can be structured. 50 years ago when I first went to Saratoga Race Track, close to where I lived at the time, there were three main bets that you could make; WIN, PLACE, and SHOW. Today there are many more bets that can be made at the track, at a simulcasting location, or over the internet. I'll list a few of them. WIN, PLACE, SHOW, QUINELLA, EXACTA, TRIFECTA, SUPERFECTA, DAILY DOUBLE, PICK 3, PICK 4, PICK 5, PICK 6. Each track across the country has some or many of these bets that can be placed depending on the race.

Doing your homework: A lot of homework can be done ahead of time to prepare for placing the bets you will make. As I mentioned before for those of you, especially starting out, you may prefer not to do any of this homework. You can buy tip sheets at the track and rely on someone else's opinions. You can decide whether you want to become a serious player or go to the track just to have some fun. It's up to you.

I hope this helps out the beginner to get started. Here are some links to past articles in my blog for further reading.

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/11/can-i-play-horses-over-internet_29.html

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/stay-on-top-of-your-handicapping.html

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/tote-picks.html

Free Horse Handicapping Contests

Recently I was with a few of my retired friends and they were asking me if there was a way they could get some experience playing the horses without losing a lot of money. I asked them if they had an internet account and were familiar with using the web. Most were, so I went on to tell them about some of the free horse handicapping contests that you can join and play to hone your skills.

There is a contest that you can play for free each day. All you have to do is sign up for a free account with Brisnet and play along each day. Just log in tohttp://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/daily-contest/index.cgi and click on "FREE Contest Registration". Follow the instructions to set up your free account. You're then ready to play "Race of the Day" each day. Brisnet keeps tab of your record and gives you one point each day just for playing. If you are in the top 50 of winning picks for the week you get a bonus of 50 extra points applied to your account for that week. Twice a year they have a drawing and you have a chance to go to the Kentucky Derby in May or to the Breeders Cup in October with all expenses paid for two.

If you only have time to play in a contest on weekends then there's a web site that you can join for free that lets you make your selections for four races each weekend. Just go to http://www.publichandicapper.com/ and click on "sign up to play for free here". You will get an email from the Public Handicapper folks each Thursday telling you what races you will be playing on Saturday. You can then use your favorite handicapping tools to make your three selections in each of the four races. Why three selections? Because if your top choice gets scratched then you have a second choice. If the top two get scratched (an unlikely event) then your pick is your third choice. They keep score for you and you can check at any time to see where you are in the standings. There are prizes at the end. It's a lot of fun and if your hit the winning horse in each race you get recognition as well as some free Past Performances for a period of time.

There is another web site that you can join, http://www.equibase.com/index.cfm, that has free contests at various times during the year. Go to "Equibase Virtual Stable" and click on "Register Now". It's free to set up an account. If you are registered then whenever Equibase has a contest they will send you an email so you can participate. The contest is for one track on a particular day, usually a Saturday, and you make a win and place bet on one horse in each race. There are cash prizes for the largest accumulated bankroll. It's fun and they keep score for you.

These contests are FREE so get started and have some fun. Good luck.

Betting Strategies

Fifty years ago when I first started betting on the horses, the win, place and show bets were about the only choices you had. If you wanted to bet you had to go to the race track to do it. At that time the computer wasn't used to determine the payouts. It was done manually at the track.

As the years passed and the computer started to be used to determine the payouts the exacta and the quinella were introduced. Then came a new stream of what became known as exotic bets. The trifecta, superfecta, rolling doubles, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, and pick 6 all became popular.

In 1993 the internet opened up betting from a personal computer. As the race tracks one by one began to allow betting from all over the country through simulcast betting at the home track, it then became possible to bet from your computer at home. Youbet, Expressbet, TVG, Twinspires (and others) were internet websites that allowed betting at most tracks around the world.

The process of betting now becomes quite complex. You have so many choices that you must resolve where, when and how much you're going to bet. Here is where betting strategies come into play. I remember as a kid going into a candy store and there were so many choices that with the dime I had to spend I had to decide which were my favorite candies and how much to spend on each. That's the situation that one is faced with today with horse betting. You have a bankroll that determines how much you have to wager with. If you bet exotics you must calculate and know for a particular bet what the cost will be. Your choice of bets, their cost, how the bets fit into your bankroll and how many of your bets have positive payouts will determine your success or failure. There is an old track saying "you can't win them all but you can lose them all". Let's summarize with some betting strategies.

Betting Strategy #1:
Determine the track and the race you're going to bet on.

Betting Strategy #2:
Determine the kind of bet that you are going to place and figure out what it will cost.

Betting Strategy #3:
Keep track of the running balance in your bankroll. Never exceed your bankroll if losses accumulate. Don't bet money that you can't afford to lose.

Betting Strategy #4:
Use discipline in the bets you make. Know when to "fold'um" if you hit a losing streak. Be able to accept your loses and never "double down".

May luck be with you.

Conditional Betting

What is conditional betting? Recently Twinspires offers the capability of making conditional bets. These are bets that are only executed if the condition you specify is satisfied. Why would you want to make a conditional bet? Some horse players already watch the toteboard to see if certain conditions are met before they place a bet. This is a rather intensive activity that can play upon your emotions. Many times not a good situation to be in. Also waiting to right before the race starts, 1 or 2 minutes before, you may not be able to get to a window at the track to place the bet. Rather than having to watch the toteboard constantly you can enter the conditional bet and not even be where the toteboard is available to you. You can be at home and enter the bet over the internet. Then you can check later and see what the result is.

So what does a conditional bet look like? Here is an example.

Race #3 07/01/2008
Philadelphia
$20.00 Win (6/5 @ 2mtp)
#4
$20.00

In race #3 on the 1st of July at Philadelphia Park I entered a $20 win bet on the #4 horse with the condition that the tote must be 6/5 or lower with 2 minutes to post. If that condition was satisfied then the bet was entered and executed.

Right now you can place conditional bets on win, place and show bets and exactas. The restriction on exactas is that the bet is a simple exacta bet like horse A with horse B. No boxes or key exactas can be conditional. This doesn't keep you from making multiple simple exactas however. That's a little laborious to do but it can be done if you have the patience.

I am experimenting with strategies that include conditional betting. I'll report back to you later on how well the strategies work.

Stay tuned.

Tote Analysis of the Mac Diarmida Handicap

The featured race, race 8, on Sunday, March 16th at Gulfstream was the Grade II Mac Diarmida Handicap. It started out with 14 horses but two were scratched. Here was a race with some quality horses. I want to illustrate with this tote analysis the choice of a race to bet on, how the tote analysis works, and the placement of the bets from the analysis.

The tote analysis for this race can be found at
http://billwinters.org/GulfstreamSundayR8Mar16.jpg . First observe that the 3 horse, True Cause, ridden by John Velazquez, at the 20m (20 minute) mark immediately took a lot of money and the tote odds were at 2/1. The morning line (ML) started at 5/1 and the profit line (PL) was at 9/1. The 3 horse was indeed one to watch closely. Down to the 10 minute mark True Cause was still at 2/1. Both the morning line (3/1) and profit line (9/5) favorite was the 9 horse, Stream of Gold ridden by Eibar Coa. At the 5m and 3m marks the 9 horse began taking a lot of money and the odds went down to 8/5. The 3 horse odds came up to 7/2. Both horses looked very strong on the toteboard.

To bet this race I will use $2 win bets, $1 exacta bets, and $1 Trifecta bets for illustrative purposes. My actual bets were higher than this. I chose to place $2 to win on both 3 and 9 ($2 win 9,3). I placed a $1 exacta box on 3 and 9 ($1 exacta 3/9 and 9/3). As a hedge I also bet the exacta 3,9/1,4,11. My trifecta bets were 3,9/3,9/1,4,11 and the hedge bet was 3,9/1,4,11/3,9. The finish for this turf race was 9-3-11. The 9 horse paid $4.60 to win, the $1 exacta paid $10 and the $1 trifecta paid $47.80.

Note from the tote analysis that I used the top five tote picks in my bets. Horse 9 was the top tote pick at 8/5. The 3 horse was second at 7/2. The 1 horse was third at 6/1. The 11 horse was fourth at 9/1 and the 4 horse was 5th at 10/1.

The cost of the bets in this race were as follows: Win bets cost was $4. The exactas cost $2 for the exacta box 3,9 an $6 for 3,9/1,4,11. The trifecta cost $6 for 3,9/3,9/1,4,11 and $6 for 3,9/1,4,11/3,9. The net gain for this race was (4.60+10.00+47.80)-(4.00+8.00+12.00)= $38.40.

Win Bet Stategies

Placing a win bet seems simple enough ... but is it? All to many times one has the tendency to just 'do it' without too much thought particularly if it's just a $2 win bet. Now a $100 win bet is a different matter unless you just have plenty of money to throw away. With a $100 win bet you want to have a very high confidence level that your bet will pay off. This is where your handicapping comes into play.

Just concentrating on a 'win bet', there are lots of considerations. If you pick a race to bet on you may come to the conclusion (from your handicapping) that there is just one horse that you are convinced will win the race. In this case scale your bet to your level of confidence. For example, you may be so convinced that you are willing to bet $50 to win on that horse but no more.

Now in another race that you have handicapped you find two horses, or maybe even three that you are convinced could win the race. You just don't know which one. With a little knowledge of the odds on each horse you can do a quick calculation to determine if you'll place a win bet on these 2 or 3 horses. For example, let's say these three horses have odds of 2/1, 3/1 and 5/1 on the tote board at race time. Quite simply you could place say, a $10 bet on each of these three horses to win. If the 2/1 odd horse wins your return would be (2 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $30. You bet $10 on all three horse so your cost was $30. You get your money back. Now if the 3/1 horse wins your pay off will be (3 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $40. So you come out $40 - $30 or $10 ahead. If the 5/1 horse wins your return is (5 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $60. That's $60 - $30 or $30 ahead. If you're totally wrong and one of the other horses comes in you lose $30.

Notice that in the above example that you bet the same amount "$10" on each horse. What if you wanted to scale your bets on each horse so that you come out ahead no matter which horse wins. This technique is called 'dutching'. By going to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutching you can learn more about dutching. If you google 'dutching' you can find calculators to take to the track with you to perform these strategies. A specific tool I have used is called 'hedgehog'. It can be found at http://www.crowncity.com/speedplus/hedgehog.html. I will dedicate a complete article at a later time to dutching.

More Profits by Eliminating Bad Bets

What is a bad bet? It is a bet that you have no idea of the chances for winning it. Why would someone want to make such a bet? When a horseplayer goes to the track there is the strong tendency to bet on every race just because you are there. It is just plain difficult to not bet every race. The emotion of it all is just too consuming. Many bets are made on pure emotion. These are bad bets.

There is a case for betting over the internet. When you go to the track you have the tendency to bet on all your local track races. You may also bet on a simulcast track or two. This leaves a lot of room for placing bad bets. However, when you bet over the internet you can remove most of the emotion associated with being at the track. You can look for and pick and chose the races that have a high probability of winning. Leave most of the races alone. Just don't bet them. Bet just those races that you have the edge in. I am planning a future article where I will chose
races from many tracks and I'll explain why I chose each race. This approach will allow you to remove the emotion from your betting and allow you to control the amount you bet.

In a previous article, "A Day at the Track using Tote Analysis", I explained why I did not bet 3 of the 9 races on the card that day. If you are using tote analysis it is a good way to prevent bad bets.


It takes courage not to place a bet on a race. Every bad bet you eliminate is money you keep in your bankroll. Your return on investment (ROI) can be much higher at the end of the day. The difference between a winning day and a losing one may be the bad bets you have eliminated.

A Starting Point for Betting Simulcast Tracks

Several years ago I set up a web page for myself that would allow me to go to the resources that I needed to get ready for a day of racing. It became popular by word of mouth to others, especially those horseplayers at Remington Park my home track, who also started using it. That web page has had over 125,000 hits in the last several years and is reached at
http://billwinters.org/handicap2

There is a selection bar on this page that includes the following: Race Tracks/E-ponies/Equibase/Handicapping/Twinspires/Brisnet/TVG/Racing Channel/Daily Racing Form
A click on "Race Tracks" takes you toUSA Horse RacingTracks - Listed by State.
http://www.officialusa.com/stateguides/horseracingtracks/index.html

A click on E-ponies takes you to Computer-based handicapping - the best source for free picks
http://www.e-ponies.com/

Official source for thoroughbred racing information
http://www.equibase.com/

To listen to daily free audio selections/ race of the day free selection
http://www.trackmaster.com/

A Churchill Downs Corp. Wagering Site
http://www.twinspires.com/content/

Bloodstock Research Information Services
http://www.brisnet.com/

TVG Interactive Horseracing
http://www.tvg.com/

Provides Toteboards for Thoroughbreds, Harness Racing, and Greyhounds
http://www.racingchannel.com/

America's Turf Authority Since 1894
http://www.drf.com/

I have found that the favorite link used by many horseplayers is the E-ponies link with the free computer-based handicapping free picks. I have done some studies on the E-ponies picks and can offer some advice. Just picking the top choice in each race is a losing proposition over the long run. Choosing the top three choices will get you close to making some money in the long run. The best advice is to use some handicapping tools along with the E-ponies free picks. I like Brisnet's Ultimate PP's.

Enjoy and good luck.

Exacta Betting using Tote Analysis

In a previous blog article, "A Day at the Track Using Tote Analysis", I chose Gulfstream on January 24, 2008. In that article I kept it simple and only used win bets. Let's look at how you would have done if you did exacta betting on the same races that day. The tote analysis for the first three races are found at
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg .

In race 1 we do not bet since our analysis showed that any horse in the race could likely
win.

In race 2 the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the profit Line favorite at 9/5 was going to also be the tote pick. The exacta bet here was to bet the 3 horse (on top in the win position) along with the rest of the horses in the place position. The bet then is written 3/ALL. As a hedge, in case another horse beats the 3, we place the bet ALL/3. [In summary then the bet is 3/ALL and ALL/3.] The cost of this bet (assuming a $1 exacta bet) is $5 + $5 or $10. The result of this race was that the #1 horse beat out the #3 horse who placed. We won the bet with the hedge part of the bet. 1 - 3 was the finish order. The $1 exacta paid $15.60. A net gain of (15.60 - 10.00) $5.60.

I wrote in an earlier blog article, "One of My Favorite Trifecta Bets", that I liked this bet when the conditions were right. The conditions were right in this race. The tote analysis showed at the 3m mark that the #3 horse was at even odds (1/1) and the #4 horse was at 2/1. These two horses were solid favorites in the race. The trifecta bet then was 3,4/3,4/ALL. The race finished with 3-4-7. The $1 trifecta paid $13.20 and cost $10. This gave us a net gain of $3.20. The $1 exacta box of the two favorites paid $4.50 and cost $2.00, a net gain of $2.50.

[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]

The 4th race had four scratched horses. We don't pay as much attention to the M/L and P/L favorite with all these scratches. This is the kind of race where we pay attention to the tote analysis and where the money is coming into the betting. It can really pay off. At the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The exacta bet here is to use all 4 of these horses in an exacta box (1,2,7,10). The race result was 10 - 7. A nice $1 exacta payoff of $27.00. The net gain was ($27.00 - $12) $15.00.

Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. I decided not to bet this race.

[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]

On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. The exacta bet here was 1/ALL and ALL/1. 2B came on to beat 1 with an exacta payoff of $16.90 and a cost of ($5 + $5) $10.00. The net gain was $6.90.

In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The exacta bet was 4/ALL and ALL/4. The result was 4 - 6 for a nice exacta payoff of $34.30. The cost was $18.00. A very nice net gain of $16.30.

[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]

The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstreams leading rider brought the horse in for the win. The exacta bet was with the two favorites, 3 and 7 both at 8/5 odds at the 3m mark, 3,7/ALL. The $1 exacta paid $18.60. The cost was $14.00 so the net gain was $4.60.

Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was in conclusive and didn't show much so I didn't bet this race.

The total net gain for the exacta betting for the afternoon was ($5.60 + $3.20 + $15 + $6.90 + $16.30 + $4.60) $45.60. Not bad for $1 betting.

Note that the net gain for win betting was $15.80. Which type bet do you like?

'til the next article. Good luck and enjoy yourself.

Where to Find Free Picks

One of the questions I am asked the most is: Where do I find free picks on the internet?Indeed an interesting question. Right now (01/05/08) there are a number of tracks having live racing. Some of the most popular tracks are: Calder, Santa Anita, Fairgrounds, Aqueduct, Turfway, Laurel, and Hawthorne.

One of the first places to look is Eponies at http://www.e-ponies.com/racingpicks.htm . There are free picks at Eponies for all the tracks except the Fairgrounds. If you want free picks at the Fairgrounds you can go to the Fairgrounds web site ( http://www.fairgroundsracecourse.com/ ) and Jessica Pacheco has free picks for you.

A second place to look is at the web site for the track you're interested in. For example, if you go to Calder ( http://www.calderracecourse.com/ ) under "Racing information/Handicapping" you will find free picks by Ron Nicoletti, an excellent handicapper with a 34% win percentage. He is dynamite with all Florida tracks.

At Santa Anita ( http://www.santaanita.com/ ) select Racing Information/Handicapping. You have your choice of "House Handicap" or "DRF Handicap".

At Aqueduct, http://www.drf.com/nyra/nyra.html , there is Dave Litfin's Race Analysis.

Here are the links to Turfway, Laurel, and Hawthorne:(Hint: look under "Racing Information/ Handicapping".)

Turfway http://www.turfway.com/

Laurel http://www.laurelpark.com/

Hawthorne http://www.hawthorneracecourse.com/

Free picks are just fine but remember to do some handicapping on your own. Nothing is "free" if you lose the bet. Free picks should be just your starting point. (Money management hint: keep bad bets to a minimum.)

Good luck and have fun.