A trip to the race track or a session on your computer with Twinspires.com can be a winning one or a painful loss. So let's take a look at both situations and see if we can identify what may be 'a winning strategy'.
First, a look at the 'behavior of betting' is in order because the individual's mind set is behind the bets he makes. The first thing to consider is the size of your bankroll. Your bankroll is money you have put aside to bet with. There is a saying that goes like this: "you can't win them all but you can lose them all". What does this mean? It means that it is quite possible to lose every bet you place. If that should happen to you then you may end up with a zero bankroll. This is the very worse situation.
We will look at a strategy that will put money bet, that we win with, back into our bankroll. So when we win a bet we will put this winning ticket aside and not use it again during the current betting day. Quite simply what this will do for us is to make sure any winnings we have we do not roll over into losses. Rolling winnings back into betting again with the proceeds and losing is the way many a horse player ends up with empty pockets at the end of the day.
Putting winning tickets aside and back into you bankroll is a strategy for at least preserving part or all of your bankroll for the day. The second step in a 'winning strategy' is to never bet more than your have in your bankroll for that day. For example, if you start with a bankroll of $200 you might want to allocate $10 in bets for each race if you have 10 races on the card for that day. That assumes you want to bet every race. If you have some discipline in your betting you may not bet every race but choose races that you have the greatest confidence in winning. You can measure the size of your bets but never exceed your bankroll for that day.
A profitable day is one where your winnings exceed your bankroll that you started with at the beginning of the day. In fact you may want to stop betting when you reach a profitable level that meets your expectations.
May the racing gods be with you.
Showing posts with label Twinspires. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Twinspires. Show all posts
Saturday, December 7, 2013
Thursday, August 25, 2011
What I Should Know About Handicapping and Betting
[I am being encouraged by friends and new acquaintenaces at my home race track to write some articles for beginners.]
What is horse handicapping and what should I know about betting?
Handicapping a horse race is about determining which horse (or horses) could win the race. Betting is about determining what kind of a bet to place and how to configure it. Let's talk about handicapping first. When you go to a race track you can purchase a newspaper called the Daily Racing Form (DRF). The DRF has long been the means to getting a look at the Past Performances (PP) for all horses in a race. If you have the internet you can use your PC to access the PP's before you ever get to the track. Just go to DRF.com, pick the track and date. Reading the DRF PP's, if you are new to it may seem quite formitable. If you want to become more serious about handicapping and picking potential winners I suggest you study the form (DRF) and become familiar with the terminology in it. Those who do not use the form may resort to tip sheets. These are put together and sold by individuals who rate horses in a race. I have found that if you are at the track strictly for fun then tip sheets may be an easy way to skip the handicapping, use someone elses picks and have fun.
Placing a bet is determining what kind of a bet you will make and how you will structure it. There are many bets that can be structured. 50 years ago when I first went to Saratoga Race Track, close to where I lived at the time, there were three main bets that you could make; WIN, PLACE, and SHOW. Today there are many more bets that can be made at the track, at a simulcasting location, or over the internet. I'll list a few of them. WIN, PLACE, SHOW, QUINELLA, EXACTA, TRIFECTA, SUPERFECTA, DAILY DOUBLE, PICK 3, PICK 4, PICK 5, PICK 6. Each track across the country has some or many of these bets that can be placed depending on the race.
Doing your homework: A lot of homework can be done ahead of time to prepare for placing the bets you will make. As I mentioned before for those of you, especially starting out, you may prefer not to do any of this homework. You can buy tip sheets at the track and rely on someone else's opinions. You can decide whether you want to become a serious player or go to the track just to have some fun. It's up to you.
I hope this helps out the beginner to get started. Here are some links to past articles in my blog for further reading.
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/11/can-i-play-horses-over-internet_29.html
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/stay-on-top-of-your-handicapping.html
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/tote-picks.html
What is horse handicapping and what should I know about betting?
Handicapping a horse race is about determining which horse (or horses) could win the race. Betting is about determining what kind of a bet to place and how to configure it. Let's talk about handicapping first. When you go to a race track you can purchase a newspaper called the Daily Racing Form (DRF). The DRF has long been the means to getting a look at the Past Performances (PP) for all horses in a race. If you have the internet you can use your PC to access the PP's before you ever get to the track. Just go to DRF.com, pick the track and date. Reading the DRF PP's, if you are new to it may seem quite formitable. If you want to become more serious about handicapping and picking potential winners I suggest you study the form (DRF) and become familiar with the terminology in it. Those who do not use the form may resort to tip sheets. These are put together and sold by individuals who rate horses in a race. I have found that if you are at the track strictly for fun then tip sheets may be an easy way to skip the handicapping, use someone elses picks and have fun.
Placing a bet is determining what kind of a bet you will make and how you will structure it. There are many bets that can be structured. 50 years ago when I first went to Saratoga Race Track, close to where I lived at the time, there were three main bets that you could make; WIN, PLACE, and SHOW. Today there are many more bets that can be made at the track, at a simulcasting location, or over the internet. I'll list a few of them. WIN, PLACE, SHOW, QUINELLA, EXACTA, TRIFECTA, SUPERFECTA, DAILY DOUBLE, PICK 3, PICK 4, PICK 5, PICK 6. Each track across the country has some or many of these bets that can be placed depending on the race.
Doing your homework: A lot of homework can be done ahead of time to prepare for placing the bets you will make. As I mentioned before for those of you, especially starting out, you may prefer not to do any of this homework. You can buy tip sheets at the track and rely on someone else's opinions. You can decide whether you want to become a serious player or go to the track just to have some fun. It's up to you.
I hope this helps out the beginner to get started. Here are some links to past articles in my blog for further reading.
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/11/can-i-play-horses-over-internet_29.html
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/stay-on-top-of-your-handicapping.html
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/tote-picks.html
Monday, July 26, 2010
Betting Strategies
Fifty years ago when I first started betting on the horses, the win, place and show bets were about the only choices you had. If you wanted to bet you had to go to the race track to do it. At that time the computer wasn't used to determine the payouts. It was done manually at the track.
As the years passed and the computer started to be used to determine the payouts the exacta and the quinella were introduced. Then came a new stream of what became known as exotic bets. The trifecta, superfecta, rolling doubles, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, and pick 6 all became popular.
In 1993 the internet opened up betting from a personal computer. As the race tracks one by one began to allow betting from all over the country through simulcast betting at the home track, it then became possible to bet from your computer at home. Youbet, Expressbet, TVG, Twinspires (and others) were internet websites that allowed betting at most tracks around the world.
The process of betting now becomes quite complex. You have so many choices that you must resolve where, when and how much you're going to bet. Here is where betting strategies come into play. I remember as a kid going into a candy store and there were so many choices that with the dime I had to spend I had to decide which were my favorite candies and how much to spend on each. That's the situation that one is faced with today with horse betting. You have a bankroll that determines how much you have to wager with. If you bet exotics you must calculate and know for a particular bet what the cost will be. Your choice of bets, their cost, how the bets fit into your bankroll and how many of your bets have positive payouts will determine your success or failure. There is an old track saying "you can't win them all but you can lose them all". Let's summarize with some betting strategies.
Betting Strategy #1:
Determine the track and the race you're going to bet on.
Betting Strategy #2:
Determine the kind of bet that you are going to place and figure out what it will cost.
Betting Strategy #3:
Keep track of the running balance in your bankroll. Never exceed your bankroll if losses accumulate. Don't bet money that you can't afford to lose.
Betting Strategy #4:
Use discipline in the bets you make. Know when to "fold'um" if you hit a losing streak. Be able to accept your loses and never "double down".
May luck be with you.
As the years passed and the computer started to be used to determine the payouts the exacta and the quinella were introduced. Then came a new stream of what became known as exotic bets. The trifecta, superfecta, rolling doubles, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, and pick 6 all became popular.
In 1993 the internet opened up betting from a personal computer. As the race tracks one by one began to allow betting from all over the country through simulcast betting at the home track, it then became possible to bet from your computer at home. Youbet, Expressbet, TVG, Twinspires (and others) were internet websites that allowed betting at most tracks around the world.
The process of betting now becomes quite complex. You have so many choices that you must resolve where, when and how much you're going to bet. Here is where betting strategies come into play. I remember as a kid going into a candy store and there were so many choices that with the dime I had to spend I had to decide which were my favorite candies and how much to spend on each. That's the situation that one is faced with today with horse betting. You have a bankroll that determines how much you have to wager with. If you bet exotics you must calculate and know for a particular bet what the cost will be. Your choice of bets, their cost, how the bets fit into your bankroll and how many of your bets have positive payouts will determine your success or failure. There is an old track saying "you can't win them all but you can lose them all". Let's summarize with some betting strategies.
Betting Strategy #1:
Determine the track and the race you're going to bet on.
Betting Strategy #2:
Determine the kind of bet that you are going to place and figure out what it will cost.
Betting Strategy #3:
Keep track of the running balance in your bankroll. Never exceed your bankroll if losses accumulate. Don't bet money that you can't afford to lose.
Betting Strategy #4:
Use discipline in the bets you make. Know when to "fold'um" if you hit a losing streak. Be able to accept your loses and never "double down".
May luck be with you.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
When to Bet?
More and more horse bettors are using the internet to bet on the ponies. Using the internet has some fantastic advantages. I know that some of you will point out the opposite also. However, for this article I'll be looking only at the advantages (I'll cover the caveats and opposites at another time.)
When your betting over the internet you have a large variety of options to choose from. First, you have dozens of race tracks to choose from across the country and around the world. This in itself can give you flexibility that you have never had before. Let me give you a few examples. When you were captive in the old days at one race track you had just the races on the card at that track to bet on. The temptation was to bet each race on the card. The choice of not betting on a race because you felt unsure about it was one hard choice to make. You had only eight or nine races to bet on. Fast forward to today's betting over the internet it is much easier to skip that race because you have so many other choices from other tracks. There is no reason to bet on a race that makes you uneasy or about which you feel uncomfortable. You can work in a strategy that allows you to bet only when you feel the odds are with you and you feel comfortable about the bet.
Another example is the fact that over the internet you have so many more tools in front of you to make your betting more deliberate and focused. Let's consider just three tools. Assume that you have a Twinspires account. Here are three things you can use to control your betting. First, you have the Morning Line, the Profit Line, and the Tote to assist you prior to placing a bet. Secondly, you have the ability to place a conditional bet. Thirdly, you can cancel a bet if for some reason the conditions change before the race goes off. (Horse(s) may be scratched, the tote does not respond the way you expect, the horse does not look right in the paddock or when (s)he comes out on the track, etc.)
There are many more tools but I think you can see that with just the few that I have mentioned that 'When to Bet' can be much more than a guess. It can be a choice that can put the odds more in your favor.
I will be writing more about this so stay tuned. I also have a poll on the side of my blog. Feel free to let me know how you bet.
When your betting over the internet you have a large variety of options to choose from. First, you have dozens of race tracks to choose from across the country and around the world. This in itself can give you flexibility that you have never had before. Let me give you a few examples. When you were captive in the old days at one race track you had just the races on the card at that track to bet on. The temptation was to bet each race on the card. The choice of not betting on a race because you felt unsure about it was one hard choice to make. You had only eight or nine races to bet on. Fast forward to today's betting over the internet it is much easier to skip that race because you have so many other choices from other tracks. There is no reason to bet on a race that makes you uneasy or about which you feel uncomfortable. You can work in a strategy that allows you to bet only when you feel the odds are with you and you feel comfortable about the bet.
Another example is the fact that over the internet you have so many more tools in front of you to make your betting more deliberate and focused. Let's consider just three tools. Assume that you have a Twinspires account. Here are three things you can use to control your betting. First, you have the Morning Line, the Profit Line, and the Tote to assist you prior to placing a bet. Secondly, you have the ability to place a conditional bet. Thirdly, you can cancel a bet if for some reason the conditions change before the race goes off. (Horse(s) may be scratched, the tote does not respond the way you expect, the horse does not look right in the paddock or when (s)he comes out on the track, etc.)
There are many more tools but I think you can see that with just the few that I have mentioned that 'When to Bet' can be much more than a guess. It can be a choice that can put the odds more in your favor.
I will be writing more about this so stay tuned. I also have a poll on the side of my blog. Feel free to let me know how you bet.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Using the Profit Line
If you have a Twinspires account you are probably familiar with the Profit Line (PL). It is a tool provided by Twinspires for its account holders. I have used it alot and found it very useful.
As many of you may know my home track is Remington Park. This meet I have been concentrating on pick3's and pick4's. I have used the profit line (PL) to my advantage in making my pick3 and pick4 selections. Being a statistician by profession (although retired now) I like to keep track of my bets and the corresponding results. I have put together for 34 racing days so far this meet a chart of my findings
( http://bwinters_2.tripod.com/ProfitLineAnalysis.jpg ). My chart has the PL positions from most favorite to least favorite along the top and the race number down the side. Keeping track of the winning PL position in each race here are my findings.
Remington Park (RP) has rolling pick3's starting with race 3 through race 7. Most of the time RP has 9 races on the card each racing day. Sometimes there are 10 races when special days have stakes races. In this case the pick4 will be races 7-10. Otherwise, the pick4 is races 6-9.
I kept track each race day from August 22 to October 26 in this study. Here is a summary of my results. It appears that race 5 is the most difficult because you have to go 5 deep in the PL on most days to find a winner. Races 3,7 and 8 can be singled on many days with success using the top PL choice. Using my results here is the pattern for the pick3 bet starting with race 3 PL1/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 (THESE ARE PROFIT LINE CHOICES). For a $1 pick3 this is a $15 bet. Getting past race 3 occurs about 50% of the time. In race 4 the PL choices PL1,PL2,PL3 win about 70% of the time. In race 5 the PL choice PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 will win about 80% of the time. In summary then if you were to bet this pick3 each day then one half of the time you will get past race 3 which is the first step necessary for the bet to win and pay off. The five pick3 combinations starting with race 3 and going through race 7 are as follows:
Race 3 PL1/PL1,PL2,PL3/ PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 cost $15
Race 4 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5/PL1,PL2,PL3 cost $45
Race 5 PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1 cost $15
Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1/PL1 cost $6 (assume a $2 pick3)
Race 7 PL1/PL2/PL1,PL2 cost $4 (assume a $2 pick3)
My two pick4's bets in race 6 are:
Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1/PL1/PL1,PL2 cost $12 (assume a $2 pick4)
Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2 cost $54 (assume a $1 pick4)
Depending on your bankroll you can use as many of these as you choose or limit the number of pick3's you bet on to stay within the cost constraints of your bankroll.
As many of you may know my home track is Remington Park. This meet I have been concentrating on pick3's and pick4's. I have used the profit line (PL) to my advantage in making my pick3 and pick4 selections. Being a statistician by profession (although retired now) I like to keep track of my bets and the corresponding results. I have put together for 34 racing days so far this meet a chart of my findings
( http://bwinters_2.tripod.com/ProfitLineAnalysis.jpg ). My chart has the PL positions from most favorite to least favorite along the top and the race number down the side. Keeping track of the winning PL position in each race here are my findings.
Remington Park (RP) has rolling pick3's starting with race 3 through race 7. Most of the time RP has 9 races on the card each racing day. Sometimes there are 10 races when special days have stakes races. In this case the pick4 will be races 7-10. Otherwise, the pick4 is races 6-9.
I kept track each race day from August 22 to October 26 in this study. Here is a summary of my results. It appears that race 5 is the most difficult because you have to go 5 deep in the PL on most days to find a winner. Races 3,7 and 8 can be singled on many days with success using the top PL choice. Using my results here is the pattern for the pick3 bet starting with race 3 PL1/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 (THESE ARE PROFIT LINE CHOICES). For a $1 pick3 this is a $15 bet. Getting past race 3 occurs about 50% of the time. In race 4 the PL choices PL1,PL2,PL3 win about 70% of the time. In race 5 the PL choice PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 will win about 80% of the time. In summary then if you were to bet this pick3 each day then one half of the time you will get past race 3 which is the first step necessary for the bet to win and pay off. The five pick3 combinations starting with race 3 and going through race 7 are as follows:
Race 3 PL1/PL1,PL2,PL3/ PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 cost $15
Race 4 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5/PL1,PL2,PL3 cost $45
Race 5 PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1 cost $15
Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1/PL1 cost $6 (assume a $2 pick3)
Race 7 PL1/PL2/PL1,PL2 cost $4 (assume a $2 pick3)
My two pick4's bets in race 6 are:
Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1/PL1/PL1,PL2 cost $12 (assume a $2 pick4)
Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2 cost $54 (assume a $1 pick4)
Depending on your bankroll you can use as many of these as you choose or limit the number of pick3's you bet on to stay within the cost constraints of your bankroll.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)