In my previous blog article I demonstrated that side-by-side results for win-place had a high occurrence. Infact almost one-half of the time, on opening weekend at Remington Park, ended in side-by-side results. This is a statistical occurence waiting to be taken advantage of.
I will enumerate several steps to take in order to structure these bets.
1 - Identify a 'high probability to win' horse to key on. In my last article I pointed out jockeys and trainers that can be keyed on, also ML favorite and tote board favorite.
2 - If there are high odd horses on either side of this keyed horse then that's what you want. The payoffs will be larger. (Having a hangup about odds can ruin this bet.)
3 - Is there more than one horse to key on in this race?
4 - Depending on your bankroll, start with exactas, then trifectas, and superfectas.
Let's use examples to illustrate. The first thing I do is go to the newspaper or the internet and lay out on a piece of ruled paper the post number of each horse in the race and order them by morning line odds. Here's an example.
Race 6 Post Position ..6..9..8..10..(1)..3..4..7..5..2
Morning Line ..7/2..4..9/2..5..6..10..12..15..15..15
Let's assume that one of the jockeys I mentioned in the previous article is riding horse #1 above. An inexpensive way to play this side-by-side bet is to use an exacta box 1,2. The morning line odds on #1 is 6/1, the ML odds on #2 is 15/1. I would play a $5 exacta box and it would cost $10. Another bet on the same race would be to key on the ML favorite #6. A $1 exacta box would be 5,6,7. It would cost $6. If either or both bets won your payout would be outstanding. You might even want to quit for the evening. Yes, Remington Park has all evening racing this meet.
UPDATE: Last night I went down to Remington Park. I used my side-by-side betting strategy using only exactas. Would you believe, 5 of the 10 races had side-by-side results. Race 1, result was 2-1 and the $2 exacta paid $121.60. Note that #1 was the 5/2 ML favorite. #2 had a ML odd of 15/1. Race 4, result was 5-4 and the $2 exacta paid $72.60. Again #4 was the 5/2 ML favorite and the #5 horse 15/1 ML. Race 5 result was 7-8 and the $2 exacta paid $67.80. The #7 horse was the tote board favorite. Race 9 result was 7-8 and the $2 exacta paid $141.2. The #7 horse was again the toteboard favorite. Race 10 result was 1-2 and the $2 exacta paid $51.60. G. R. Carter rode the #2 horse.
To check these results for yourself go to equibase.com and look at the summary results for Remington Park for March 12.
Showing posts with label tote pick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label tote pick. Show all posts
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Friday, January 25, 2008
A Day at the Track Using Tote Analysis
Yesterday (Thursday, January 24th) I went to my local track (Remington Park) and chose Gulfstream as the track to play for the day. I went for the purpose of writing this article for my blog and to give you some insight into toteboard analysis.
Before I went to the track I did some preparatory work in my notebook and wrote down the morning line (M/L) and Profit Line (P/L) for each horse in each race. After getting to the track I located a good seat where I could watch the toteboard and record the odds as they came up. Basically from the 20 minute (20m) mark to the 5 minute (5m) mark I recorded the odds on each horse at 5 minute intervals. This is simple enough to do provided you don't get distracted. At the 3 minute mark I would go to the betting machine (there are lots of them at the track) and place my bet. For instructional purposes I kept everything very simple. I would only make $2 win bets on any race. (I'm usually a bit more agressive than that.) In later articles I will demonstrate other kinds of bets, but not today.
Here is how things went for the day along with my thinking as we went from race to race. I have scanned my hand notes and furnish them for you so you can see what (I recorded and) what I was looking at before the race started.
[Tote analysis for races 1,2,and 3:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg ]
Race #1 was scheduled to go off at 1:15 Eastern time. At 12:45 I was ready to start recording. I started noting that at the 20m mark that the #2 horse and the #5 horse odds both got competitive with the rest of the horses all between 2/1 and 5/1. This pattern remained about the same right down to the 5m mark. I concluded that it appeared that any of the 5 horses could win. I decided to not bet (NB) this race. (There were 8 more races to go and with plenty of opportunities to choose from.)
Race # 2 was scheduled at 1:44. There were 6 entries in race 2. As I recorded at each 5m interval I could see that the number 3 horse (the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the Profit Line favorite at 9/5) was going to also be the tote pick. I bet $2 to win on the #3 horse. The result was that #3 came in to place. I lost this one. There's an old saying at the track "you can't win them all, but you can lose them all".
On to race #3. 7 horses in this race. After getting down to the 3m mark it is obvious that the M/L, P/L and tote pick point to the #3 horse. Glancing at the program I noticed that Elvis Truillo was riding #3. (He's one of the leading riders in Florida.) It looked like a solid bet. #3 did win and paid $4.20.
[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]
Race #4 has 10 horses. However, 4 horses were scratched. (4,5,8,9). We now had a 6 horse race. With so many scratches the race changes with the M/L and P/L having little significance any longer. As I began recording the odds I began to focus on 4 horses: 1,2,7,and 10. Why? Because at the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The #10 horse at the 5m mark was taking a lot of money. I bet the 10 horse to win. The horse won and paid a handsome $15.
Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. It was too inconclusive. I decided not to bet this race.
[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]
On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. I bet the #1 horse. 2b beat the 1 horse and I lost this one.
In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The horse won and paid $3.40.
[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]
The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstream's leading rider brought the horse in to win. #3 paid $5.20 to win.
Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was inconclusive and didn't show much, so I didn't bet this race.
For the afternoon $12 was bet and $27.80 was won for a net return of $15.80 for the afternoon.
You can see a table of the results at
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Results.jpg
Before I went to the track I did some preparatory work in my notebook and wrote down the morning line (M/L) and Profit Line (P/L) for each horse in each race. After getting to the track I located a good seat where I could watch the toteboard and record the odds as they came up. Basically from the 20 minute (20m) mark to the 5 minute (5m) mark I recorded the odds on each horse at 5 minute intervals. This is simple enough to do provided you don't get distracted. At the 3 minute mark I would go to the betting machine (there are lots of them at the track) and place my bet. For instructional purposes I kept everything very simple. I would only make $2 win bets on any race. (I'm usually a bit more agressive than that.) In later articles I will demonstrate other kinds of bets, but not today.
Here is how things went for the day along with my thinking as we went from race to race. I have scanned my hand notes and furnish them for you so you can see what (I recorded and) what I was looking at before the race started.
[Tote analysis for races 1,2,and 3:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg ]
Race #1 was scheduled to go off at 1:15 Eastern time. At 12:45 I was ready to start recording. I started noting that at the 20m mark that the #2 horse and the #5 horse odds both got competitive with the rest of the horses all between 2/1 and 5/1. This pattern remained about the same right down to the 5m mark. I concluded that it appeared that any of the 5 horses could win. I decided to not bet (NB) this race. (There were 8 more races to go and with plenty of opportunities to choose from.)
Race # 2 was scheduled at 1:44. There were 6 entries in race 2. As I recorded at each 5m interval I could see that the number 3 horse (the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the Profit Line favorite at 9/5) was going to also be the tote pick. I bet $2 to win on the #3 horse. The result was that #3 came in to place. I lost this one. There's an old saying at the track "you can't win them all, but you can lose them all".
On to race #3. 7 horses in this race. After getting down to the 3m mark it is obvious that the M/L, P/L and tote pick point to the #3 horse. Glancing at the program I noticed that Elvis Truillo was riding #3. (He's one of the leading riders in Florida.) It looked like a solid bet. #3 did win and paid $4.20.
[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]
Race #4 has 10 horses. However, 4 horses were scratched. (4,5,8,9). We now had a 6 horse race. With so many scratches the race changes with the M/L and P/L having little significance any longer. As I began recording the odds I began to focus on 4 horses: 1,2,7,and 10. Why? Because at the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The #10 horse at the 5m mark was taking a lot of money. I bet the 10 horse to win. The horse won and paid a handsome $15.
Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. It was too inconclusive. I decided not to bet this race.
[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]
On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. I bet the #1 horse. 2b beat the 1 horse and I lost this one.
In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The horse won and paid $3.40.
[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]
The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstream's leading rider brought the horse in to win. #3 paid $5.20 to win.
Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was inconclusive and didn't show much, so I didn't bet this race.
For the afternoon $12 was bet and $27.80 was won for a net return of $15.80 for the afternoon.
You can see a table of the results at
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Results.jpg
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Tote Picks
What are tote picks? How valuable are they? When you go to the track and watch the monitors for each track you'll see that the odds start out at the beginning with the morning line odds. As money is bet on each of the horses the odds begin to change. The tote board now begins to reflect the opinion of each of the bettors in aggregate.
Over the years I have kept track of the odds on each horse in the race as the tote changes and as you get closer and closer to post time for the race. It's an interesting exercise if you have never done it. All it takes is a pad of paper and a pencil. You just list the number of the horses vertically and then record the time (minutes before post time) at the top. You then copy the odds from the tote board each time recording the minutes to post.
Here is a sample of what that might look like.
........M/L 18m 15m 12m 9m 6m 3m
1........12.....10.....11....10....9...10....9
2.........8......9.....9......8....7.....7.....7
3........2....5/2...5/2....2...2...9/5..9/5
4.......4......5.......4......4...3....2.....8/5
5......20....99....80...50....30....25...22
6......10....20....15.....14.....15.....12...11
7........6......9......9......8......8.....8.....7
8......30....70....40...30....28....25...22
Notice that the 4 horse began to take some significant money bets beginning at the 9 minute mark (9m). Money continued to be taken on the 4 horse and at the 3 minute mark he became the tote pick at 8/5. The morning line favorite was at 9/5. Now this doesn't mean that the 4 horse will necessarily win but it does indicate that the betting public believes, for whatever reason, that this horse will win. The 4 horse (tote pick) and the 3 horse (morning line favorite) should be in any exotic bet you make.
In a later post I will point out some tote pick patterns that can be very useful, especially when you combine them with some handicapping.
Over the years I have kept track of the odds on each horse in the race as the tote changes and as you get closer and closer to post time for the race. It's an interesting exercise if you have never done it. All it takes is a pad of paper and a pencil. You just list the number of the horses vertically and then record the time (minutes before post time) at the top. You then copy the odds from the tote board each time recording the minutes to post.
Here is a sample of what that might look like.
........M/L 18m 15m 12m 9m 6m 3m
1........12.....10.....11....10....9...10....9
2.........8......9.....9......8....7.....7.....7
3........2....5/2...5/2....2...2...9/5..9/5
4.......4......5.......4......4...3....2.....8/5
5......20....99....80...50....30....25...22
6......10....20....15.....14.....15.....12...11
7........6......9......9......8......8.....8.....7
8......30....70....40...30....28....25...22
Notice that the 4 horse began to take some significant money bets beginning at the 9 minute mark (9m). Money continued to be taken on the 4 horse and at the 3 minute mark he became the tote pick at 8/5. The morning line favorite was at 9/5. Now this doesn't mean that the 4 horse will necessarily win but it does indicate that the betting public believes, for whatever reason, that this horse will win. The 4 horse (tote pick) and the 3 horse (morning line favorite) should be in any exotic bet you make.
In a later post I will point out some tote pick patterns that can be very useful, especially when you combine them with some handicapping.
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