Placing a win bet seems simple enough ... but is it? All to many times one has the tendency to just 'do it' without too much thought particularly if it's just a $2 win bet. Now a $100 win bet is a different matter unless you just have plenty of money to throw away. With a $100 win bet you want to have a very high confidence level that your bet will pay off. This is where your handicapping comes into play.
Just concentrating on a 'win bet', there are lots of considerations. If you pick a race to bet on you may come to the conclusion (from your handicapping) that there is just one horse that you are convinced will win the race. In this case scale your bet to your level of confidence. For example, you may be so convinced that you are willing to bet $50 to win on that horse but no more.
Now in another race that you have handicapped you find two horses, or maybe even three that you are convinced could win the race. You just don't know which one. With a little knowledge of the odds on each horse you can do a quick calculation to determine if you'll place a win bet on these 2 or 3 horses. For example, let's say these three horses have odds of 2/1, 3/1 and 5/1 on the tote board at race time. Quite simply you could place say, a $10 bet on each of these three horses to win. If the 2/1 odd horse wins your return would be (2 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $30. You bet $10 on all three horse so your cost was $30. You get your money back. Now if the 3/1 horse wins your pay off will be (3 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $40. So you come out $40 - $30 or $10 ahead. If the 5/1 horse wins your return is (5 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $60. That's $60 - $30 or $30 ahead. If you're totally wrong and one of the other horses comes in you lose $30.
Notice that in the above example that you bet the same amount "$10" on each horse. What if you wanted to scale your bets on each horse so that you come out ahead no matter which horse wins. This technique is called 'dutching'. By going to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutching you can learn more about dutching. If you google 'dutching' you can find calculators to take to the track with you to perform these strategies. A specific tool I have used is called 'hedgehog'. It can be found at http://www.crowncity.com/speedplus/hedgehog.html. I will dedicate a complete article at a later time to dutching.
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Monday, March 3, 2008
My Favorite Exacta Bet
Sunday, March 2, 2008 I played the horses at Gulfstream. I wanted to combine both tote pick analysis and my favorite exacta bet. I set the threshold for a tote pick at less than 0.5 and used both the morning line (ML) and profit Line (PL) as my base. So to do the computation you just divide the tote odds by the ML (tote odds/ML) and/or the tote odds by the PL (tote odds/PL). The tote odds will be at the 3 minute mark(3m). You will see in my notes for each race what I did.
My favorite exacta is one where I take the favorite either on the basis of the ML or the PL or the tote pick or any combination of the three. My ideal would be when the favorite is the ML favorite, the profit line favorite, and the tote pick favorite. This doesn't always happen often enough so I may use the favorite who is both the ML and PL favorite. My exacta bet would then be the favorite/ALL (ALL is all of the other horses in the race). However, my hedge for this bet is ALL/the favorite. Actually the hedge is what I am hoping will happen. Why? Because the pay off can be quite large if the favorite is beaten by one of the long shots in the race. I have seen it happen hundreds of times where a heavy favorite is beaten in the last hundred yards by one of the other horses in the race. I don't have exact statistics on this phenonemon but it is often enough to play the hedge bet.
I am going to show you my notes for every race so you can see the tote analysis as well as my thinking for each race. Let's start with race 1. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes. In race 1 at the 3 minute (3m) mark, the 7 horse is a strong tote pick with 0.375 (ML) and 0.125 (PL). For purposes of illustration I'm going to use a $2 win bet on the 7 horse. (I actually bet $20 to win. I came with a $200 bankroll.) The 7 horse did win and paid $6 for each $2 bet. A good way to start for the day.
On to race 2. Click again on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes and the tote analysis. The tote pick in this race was the 5 horse with a 0.333 (ML). Again we bet $2 win on the 5 horse. Luck is with us again and the 5 horse wins. This time the pay off is $6.40 for each $2 bet. We're feeling pretty good at this point. Let's not get too over joyed at this point and emotional. We want to keep our emotions at a minimum.
Race 3 is next so click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis for this race. At the 3m mark the 2 horse has a 0.3 (ML) value and a 0.171 (PL) value. Again we have a strong tote pick so we bet $2 win on the #2 horse. This time the 2 horse fades and isn't even in the money. So back to reality.
The 4th race is next. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. The 5 horse is the ML and PL pick. I took a look at the Daily Racing Form (DRF) and came to the conclusion that several horses could beat the 5 horse. I took a break and didn't bet this race. The hamburger tasted pretty good.
The 5th race had a couple of scratched horses. One scratch was early (#6) and one scratch was right at post time (#5). Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. Here is another race where there was no obvious tote pick so I opted to not bet this one either. As it turned out I hadn't finished my hamburger and I got in a conversation so I lost my focus. I don't like to bet in this instance.
With the hamburger and conversation out of the way I now am ready to concentrate on race 6. I have to admit that one of my favorite jockeys is John Velasquez. He is riding the #4 horse.
Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg and take a look at my notes. The 5 horse is my ideal pick however. The horse is the ML, PL, and tote pick in this race. Now is the time to to play my favorite exacta bet: 5/ALL along with the hedge bet ALL/5. Johnnie V on the 4 horse leads all the way to win the $1 exacta for $13.40. The hedge bet (4/5) pays off. However, the net gain is only $3.40.
Race 7 is the first race on the card with a lot of horses in the race (11 horses, one was scratched). This race had three particularly good indicators. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg to take a look. Notice that the 12 horse was both the ML and PL favorite. He looked to be the quality in the race. See how the odds started at the 20m mark at 7/1. Money kept coming in on the horse for 15 minutes until at the 5m and 3m marks the horse was at 5/2. I really liked seeing this. I played my favorite exacta bet 12/ALL along with the hedge (for insurance) ALL/12. The 12 horse came around wide at the 3/4 pole and went on to pass all the horses in front to win. The 2 horse came in second at 22/1 odds to produce a nice $1 exacta of $79.10.
Race 8 was a nice allowance race with 6 horses after the 4 horse was scratched. Johnnie V was on the 1 horse who was a heavy ML and PL favorite as well as the money odds 1/2 favorite at 3m to post. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg to see my notes on this race. Again I placed my favorite exacta bet 1/ALL and ALL/1. Sure enough the 1 horse won by 8 1/2 lengths. Keep your eye on this horse for the Kentucky Derby, "One Hot Wish".
Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg for the 9th race. The feature race of the day, the Davona Dale Stakes, has John Velasquez and Todd Pletcher teaming up on "Game Face" a very heavy favorite. My favorite exacta is 4/ALL and ALL/4. The 1 horse beat the 4 and again the hedge bet pays $9.40 to just about break even.
The last race, race 10, Johnnie V and Pletcher again combine on "Linkin". Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR10.jpg . There were 14 horses in the race. Two were scratched. The ML and PL favorites were the 5 horse Linkin. I bet my favorite exacta again, 5/ALL and ALL/5. The 11 horse at 14/1 outfinished Linkin at the finish by a length and 3/4. A really nice way to finish the day. The hedge bet $1 exacta paid $109.70.
For the afternoon the net gain was $152 (assuming $2 win bets and $1 exactas). This was a nice Return On Investment of 295%. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundaySummary03022008.jpg for the summary.
'til next time.
My favorite exacta is one where I take the favorite either on the basis of the ML or the PL or the tote pick or any combination of the three. My ideal would be when the favorite is the ML favorite, the profit line favorite, and the tote pick favorite. This doesn't always happen often enough so I may use the favorite who is both the ML and PL favorite. My exacta bet would then be the favorite/ALL (ALL is all of the other horses in the race). However, my hedge for this bet is ALL/the favorite. Actually the hedge is what I am hoping will happen. Why? Because the pay off can be quite large if the favorite is beaten by one of the long shots in the race. I have seen it happen hundreds of times where a heavy favorite is beaten in the last hundred yards by one of the other horses in the race. I don't have exact statistics on this phenonemon but it is often enough to play the hedge bet.
I am going to show you my notes for every race so you can see the tote analysis as well as my thinking for each race. Let's start with race 1. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes. In race 1 at the 3 minute (3m) mark, the 7 horse is a strong tote pick with 0.375 (ML) and 0.125 (PL). For purposes of illustration I'm going to use a $2 win bet on the 7 horse. (I actually bet $20 to win. I came with a $200 bankroll.) The 7 horse did win and paid $6 for each $2 bet. A good way to start for the day.
On to race 2. Click again on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes and the tote analysis. The tote pick in this race was the 5 horse with a 0.333 (ML). Again we bet $2 win on the 5 horse. Luck is with us again and the 5 horse wins. This time the pay off is $6.40 for each $2 bet. We're feeling pretty good at this point. Let's not get too over joyed at this point and emotional. We want to keep our emotions at a minimum.
Race 3 is next so click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis for this race. At the 3m mark the 2 horse has a 0.3 (ML) value and a 0.171 (PL) value. Again we have a strong tote pick so we bet $2 win on the #2 horse. This time the 2 horse fades and isn't even in the money. So back to reality.
The 4th race is next. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. The 5 horse is the ML and PL pick. I took a look at the Daily Racing Form (DRF) and came to the conclusion that several horses could beat the 5 horse. I took a break and didn't bet this race. The hamburger tasted pretty good.
The 5th race had a couple of scratched horses. One scratch was early (#6) and one scratch was right at post time (#5). Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. Here is another race where there was no obvious tote pick so I opted to not bet this one either. As it turned out I hadn't finished my hamburger and I got in a conversation so I lost my focus. I don't like to bet in this instance.
With the hamburger and conversation out of the way I now am ready to concentrate on race 6. I have to admit that one of my favorite jockeys is John Velasquez. He is riding the #4 horse.
Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg and take a look at my notes. The 5 horse is my ideal pick however. The horse is the ML, PL, and tote pick in this race. Now is the time to to play my favorite exacta bet: 5/ALL along with the hedge bet ALL/5. Johnnie V on the 4 horse leads all the way to win the $1 exacta for $13.40. The hedge bet (4/5) pays off. However, the net gain is only $3.40.
Race 7 is the first race on the card with a lot of horses in the race (11 horses, one was scratched). This race had three particularly good indicators. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg to take a look. Notice that the 12 horse was both the ML and PL favorite. He looked to be the quality in the race. See how the odds started at the 20m mark at 7/1. Money kept coming in on the horse for 15 minutes until at the 5m and 3m marks the horse was at 5/2. I really liked seeing this. I played my favorite exacta bet 12/ALL along with the hedge (for insurance) ALL/12. The 12 horse came around wide at the 3/4 pole and went on to pass all the horses in front to win. The 2 horse came in second at 22/1 odds to produce a nice $1 exacta of $79.10.
Race 8 was a nice allowance race with 6 horses after the 4 horse was scratched. Johnnie V was on the 1 horse who was a heavy ML and PL favorite as well as the money odds 1/2 favorite at 3m to post. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg to see my notes on this race. Again I placed my favorite exacta bet 1/ALL and ALL/1. Sure enough the 1 horse won by 8 1/2 lengths. Keep your eye on this horse for the Kentucky Derby, "One Hot Wish".
Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg for the 9th race. The feature race of the day, the Davona Dale Stakes, has John Velasquez and Todd Pletcher teaming up on "Game Face" a very heavy favorite. My favorite exacta is 4/ALL and ALL/4. The 1 horse beat the 4 and again the hedge bet pays $9.40 to just about break even.
The last race, race 10, Johnnie V and Pletcher again combine on "Linkin". Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR10.jpg . There were 14 horses in the race. Two were scratched. The ML and PL favorites were the 5 horse Linkin. I bet my favorite exacta again, 5/ALL and ALL/5. The 11 horse at 14/1 outfinished Linkin at the finish by a length and 3/4. A really nice way to finish the day. The hedge bet $1 exacta paid $109.70.
For the afternoon the net gain was $152 (assuming $2 win bets and $1 exactas). This was a nice Return On Investment of 295%. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundaySummary03022008.jpg for the summary.
'til next time.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Test your handicapping skills for free
There are two locations that I like where you can try your hand at handicapping the horses and you can do it for free. One is a daily contest to pick the winning horse. The other is weekly on Saturdays.
Brisnet.com has a free contest called 'Race of the Day' that you can enter each day at http://www.brisnet.com/raceoftheday. The contest builds up entries toward a drawing that is made twice a year. The first part of the year the contest ends with a round trip for two to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. The second half of the year the contest ends with a trip for two to the Breeders Cup races in October. In addition, each week or month that you are one of the top 50 handicappers, you will receive a bonus of 50 additional entries. The Grand Prize Winner is chosen at random at the end of the contest.
PublicHandicapper.com is a weekly handicapping contest that is free and you can enter by going to http://www.publichandicapper.com. They usually have four races (sometimes more) each Saturday at different tracks around the country. You pick a horse to win with two alternate horses in case of scratches out of the race. The results are based on $2 win bet. You run up dollar winnings based in the payoffs from the winning $2 bet. There are three contests run during the year. The 'Publichandicapper Prep' runs from February through April ending with picks on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs. The 'Publichandicapper Challenge' runs from the Kentucky Oaks to the Breeders' Cup in October and has the biggest prizes. The 'Winter of Our Discontent' Runs from December through January. Prizes are awarded weekly and at the end of the contest period. Check out the 'Rules and Prizes' on their web site.
Try both contests out and hone you skills for free.
Brisnet.com has a free contest called 'Race of the Day' that you can enter each day at http://www.brisnet.com/raceoftheday. The contest builds up entries toward a drawing that is made twice a year. The first part of the year the contest ends with a round trip for two to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. The second half of the year the contest ends with a trip for two to the Breeders Cup races in October. In addition, each week or month that you are one of the top 50 handicappers, you will receive a bonus of 50 additional entries. The Grand Prize Winner is chosen at random at the end of the contest.
PublicHandicapper.com is a weekly handicapping contest that is free and you can enter by going to http://www.publichandicapper.com. They usually have four races (sometimes more) each Saturday at different tracks around the country. You pick a horse to win with two alternate horses in case of scratches out of the race. The results are based on $2 win bet. You run up dollar winnings based in the payoffs from the winning $2 bet. There are three contests run during the year. The 'Publichandicapper Prep' runs from February through April ending with picks on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs. The 'Publichandicapper Challenge' runs from the Kentucky Oaks to the Breeders' Cup in October and has the biggest prizes. The 'Winter of Our Discontent' Runs from December through January. Prizes are awarded weekly and at the end of the contest period. Check out the 'Rules and Prizes' on their web site.
Try both contests out and hone you skills for free.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
One of My Favorite Trifecta Bets
After years of watching hundreds, if not thousands, of races there is a pattern that occurs quite frequently. It is a pattern that the horse player can look for and spot by doing some homework ahead of time and then watching the tote board from 16 minutes before post up to 2 minutes before post. During this time you record the tote odds for each horse every 2 minutes. This is how you confirm the pattern.
The homework you do ahead of time is to look at the morning line (M/L) of the races at several tracks several hours (or even a day) before a race goes off. What you look for is a race that has 2 superior horses in the race. Looking at the M/L you may spot a race where these two horses have ,say, an M/L= 6/5 and 8/5 respectively. You also notice that the other horses have M/L at 3/1 and higher. Usually these races are allowance or stakes races where the quality of the horses is superior. You can further go to the Daily Racing Form (DRF) online or the printed version and see who these two horses are and look at their past performances (PP) compared with the rest of the horses in the race.
As you watch the tote board and record the odds you want to see if these two horses continue to be the two favorites up to 2 minutes before post time. Now here is a favorite trifecta bet that I have won hundreds of times over the years. Let's assume that there are 10 horses in the race and that 3 and 8 are the heavy favorites. The trifecta bet would be placed as follows: 3,8/ALL/3,8 (and 3,8/3,8/ALL as a hedge).
Let me explain this bet. Over the years I have found that there is a high probably that either 3 or 8 will win. Further it is likely that these two horses will duel for the lead around the track with one of the two winning out in the last quarter or eighth of a mile to the finish line. There is also a good probably that the second horse will weaken toward the end and one of the longer shots will come on to place second. To discover whether this pattern is true, I suggest you test this out a few times before you ever bet it. See for yourself.
As a hedge bet you can use 3,8/3,8/ALL in case the second horse doesn't tire out and stays with the winner to take second.
The homework you do ahead of time is to look at the morning line (M/L) of the races at several tracks several hours (or even a day) before a race goes off. What you look for is a race that has 2 superior horses in the race. Looking at the M/L you may spot a race where these two horses have ,say, an M/L= 6/5 and 8/5 respectively. You also notice that the other horses have M/L at 3/1 and higher. Usually these races are allowance or stakes races where the quality of the horses is superior. You can further go to the Daily Racing Form (DRF) online or the printed version and see who these two horses are and look at their past performances (PP) compared with the rest of the horses in the race.
As you watch the tote board and record the odds you want to see if these two horses continue to be the two favorites up to 2 minutes before post time. Now here is a favorite trifecta bet that I have won hundreds of times over the years. Let's assume that there are 10 horses in the race and that 3 and 8 are the heavy favorites. The trifecta bet would be placed as follows: 3,8/ALL/3,8 (and 3,8/3,8/ALL as a hedge).
Let me explain this bet. Over the years I have found that there is a high probably that either 3 or 8 will win. Further it is likely that these two horses will duel for the lead around the track with one of the two winning out in the last quarter or eighth of a mile to the finish line. There is also a good probably that the second horse will weaken toward the end and one of the longer shots will come on to place second. To discover whether this pattern is true, I suggest you test this out a few times before you ever bet it. See for yourself.
As a hedge bet you can use 3,8/3,8/ALL in case the second horse doesn't tire out and stays with the winner to take second.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
More Profits by Eliminating Bad Bets
What is a bad bet? It is a bet that you have no idea of the chances for winning it. Why would someone want to make such a bet? When a horseplayer goes to the track there is the strong tendency to bet on every race just because you are there. It is just plain difficult to not bet every race. The emotion of it all is just too consuming. Many bets are made on pure emotion. These are bad bets.
There is a case for betting over the internet. When you go to the track you have the tendency to bet on all your local track races. You may also bet on a simulcast track or two. This leaves a lot of room for placing bad bets. However, when you bet over the internet you can remove most of the emotion associated with being at the track. You can look for and pick and chose the races that have a high probability of winning. Leave most of the races alone. Just don't bet them. Bet just those races that you have the edge in. I am planning a future article where I will chose
races from many tracks and I'll explain why I chose each race. This approach will allow you to remove the emotion from your betting and allow you to control the amount you bet.
In a previous article, "A Day at the Track using Tote Analysis", I explained why I did not bet 3 of the 9 races on the card that day. If you are using tote analysis it is a good way to prevent bad bets.
It takes courage not to place a bet on a race. Every bad bet you eliminate is money you keep in your bankroll. Your return on investment (ROI) can be much higher at the end of the day. The difference between a winning day and a losing one may be the bad bets you have eliminated.
There is a case for betting over the internet. When you go to the track you have the tendency to bet on all your local track races. You may also bet on a simulcast track or two. This leaves a lot of room for placing bad bets. However, when you bet over the internet you can remove most of the emotion associated with being at the track. You can look for and pick and chose the races that have a high probability of winning. Leave most of the races alone. Just don't bet them. Bet just those races that you have the edge in. I am planning a future article where I will chose
races from many tracks and I'll explain why I chose each race. This approach will allow you to remove the emotion from your betting and allow you to control the amount you bet.
In a previous article, "A Day at the Track using Tote Analysis", I explained why I did not bet 3 of the 9 races on the card that day. If you are using tote analysis it is a good way to prevent bad bets.
It takes courage not to place a bet on a race. Every bad bet you eliminate is money you keep in your bankroll. Your return on investment (ROI) can be much higher at the end of the day. The difference between a winning day and a losing one may be the bad bets you have eliminated.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
A Starting Point for Betting Simulcast Tracks
Several years ago I set up a web page for myself that would allow me to go to the resources that I needed to get ready for a day of racing. It became popular by word of mouth to others, especially those horseplayers at Remington Park my home track, who also started using it. That web page has had over 125,000 hits in the last several years and is reached at
http://billwinters.org/handicap2
There is a selection bar on this page that includes the following: Race Tracks/E-ponies/Equibase/Handicapping/Twinspires/Brisnet/TVG/Racing Channel/Daily Racing Form
A click on "Race Tracks" takes you toUSA Horse RacingTracks - Listed by State.
http://www.officialusa.com/stateguides/horseracingtracks/index.html
A click on E-ponies takes you to Computer-based handicapping - the best source for free picks
http://www.e-ponies.com/
Official source for thoroughbred racing information
http://www.equibase.com/
To listen to daily free audio selections/ race of the day free selection
http://www.trackmaster.com/
A Churchill Downs Corp. Wagering Site
http://www.twinspires.com/content/
Bloodstock Research Information Services
http://www.brisnet.com/
TVG Interactive Horseracing
http://www.tvg.com/
Provides Toteboards for Thoroughbreds, Harness Racing, and Greyhounds
http://www.racingchannel.com/
America's Turf Authority Since 1894
http://www.drf.com/
I have found that the favorite link used by many horseplayers is the E-ponies link with the free computer-based handicapping free picks. I have done some studies on the E-ponies picks and can offer some advice. Just picking the top choice in each race is a losing proposition over the long run. Choosing the top three choices will get you close to making some money in the long run. The best advice is to use some handicapping tools along with the E-ponies free picks. I like Brisnet's Ultimate PP's.
Enjoy and good luck.
http://billwinters.org/handicap2
There is a selection bar on this page that includes the following: Race Tracks/E-ponies/Equibase/Handicapping/Twinspires/Brisnet/TVG/Racing Channel/Daily Racing Form
A click on "Race Tracks" takes you toUSA Horse RacingTracks - Listed by State.
http://www.officialusa.com/stateguides/horseracingtracks/index.html
A click on E-ponies takes you to Computer-based handicapping - the best source for free picks
http://www.e-ponies.com/
Official source for thoroughbred racing information
http://www.equibase.com/
To listen to daily free audio selections/ race of the day free selection
http://www.trackmaster.com/
A Churchill Downs Corp. Wagering Site
http://www.twinspires.com/content/
Bloodstock Research Information Services
http://www.brisnet.com/
TVG Interactive Horseracing
http://www.tvg.com/
Provides Toteboards for Thoroughbreds, Harness Racing, and Greyhounds
http://www.racingchannel.com/
America's Turf Authority Since 1894
http://www.drf.com/
I have found that the favorite link used by many horseplayers is the E-ponies link with the free computer-based handicapping free picks. I have done some studies on the E-ponies picks and can offer some advice. Just picking the top choice in each race is a losing proposition over the long run. Choosing the top three choices will get you close to making some money in the long run. The best advice is to use some handicapping tools along with the E-ponies free picks. I like Brisnet's Ultimate PP's.
Enjoy and good luck.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Exacta Betting using Tote Analysis
In a previous blog article, "A Day at the Track Using Tote Analysis", I chose Gulfstream on January 24, 2008. In that article I kept it simple and only used win bets. Let's look at how you would have done if you did exacta betting on the same races that day. The tote analysis for the first three races are found at
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg .
In race 1 we do not bet since our analysis showed that any horse in the race could likely
win.
In race 2 the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the profit Line favorite at 9/5 was going to also be the tote pick. The exacta bet here was to bet the 3 horse (on top in the win position) along with the rest of the horses in the place position. The bet then is written 3/ALL. As a hedge, in case another horse beats the 3, we place the bet ALL/3. [In summary then the bet is 3/ALL and ALL/3.] The cost of this bet (assuming a $1 exacta bet) is $5 + $5 or $10. The result of this race was that the #1 horse beat out the #3 horse who placed. We won the bet with the hedge part of the bet. 1 - 3 was the finish order. The $1 exacta paid $15.60. A net gain of (15.60 - 10.00) $5.60.
I wrote in an earlier blog article, "One of My Favorite Trifecta Bets", that I liked this bet when the conditions were right. The conditions were right in this race. The tote analysis showed at the 3m mark that the #3 horse was at even odds (1/1) and the #4 horse was at 2/1. These two horses were solid favorites in the race. The trifecta bet then was 3,4/3,4/ALL. The race finished with 3-4-7. The $1 trifecta paid $13.20 and cost $10. This gave us a net gain of $3.20. The $1 exacta box of the two favorites paid $4.50 and cost $2.00, a net gain of $2.50.
[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]
The 4th race had four scratched horses. We don't pay as much attention to the M/L and P/L favorite with all these scratches. This is the kind of race where we pay attention to the tote analysis and where the money is coming into the betting. It can really pay off. At the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The exacta bet here is to use all 4 of these horses in an exacta box (1,2,7,10). The race result was 10 - 7. A nice $1 exacta payoff of $27.00. The net gain was ($27.00 - $12) $15.00.
Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. I decided not to bet this race.
[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]
On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. The exacta bet here was 1/ALL and ALL/1. 2B came on to beat 1 with an exacta payoff of $16.90 and a cost of ($5 + $5) $10.00. The net gain was $6.90.
In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The exacta bet was 4/ALL and ALL/4. The result was 4 - 6 for a nice exacta payoff of $34.30. The cost was $18.00. A very nice net gain of $16.30.
[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]
The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstreams leading rider brought the horse in for the win. The exacta bet was with the two favorites, 3 and 7 both at 8/5 odds at the 3m mark, 3,7/ALL. The $1 exacta paid $18.60. The cost was $14.00 so the net gain was $4.60.
Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was in conclusive and didn't show much so I didn't bet this race.
The total net gain for the exacta betting for the afternoon was ($5.60 + $3.20 + $15 + $6.90 + $16.30 + $4.60) $45.60. Not bad for $1 betting.
Note that the net gain for win betting was $15.80. Which type bet do you like?
'til the next article. Good luck and enjoy yourself.
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg .
In race 1 we do not bet since our analysis showed that any horse in the race could likely
win.
In race 2 the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the profit Line favorite at 9/5 was going to also be the tote pick. The exacta bet here was to bet the 3 horse (on top in the win position) along with the rest of the horses in the place position. The bet then is written 3/ALL. As a hedge, in case another horse beats the 3, we place the bet ALL/3. [In summary then the bet is 3/ALL and ALL/3.] The cost of this bet (assuming a $1 exacta bet) is $5 + $5 or $10. The result of this race was that the #1 horse beat out the #3 horse who placed. We won the bet with the hedge part of the bet. 1 - 3 was the finish order. The $1 exacta paid $15.60. A net gain of (15.60 - 10.00) $5.60.
I wrote in an earlier blog article, "One of My Favorite Trifecta Bets", that I liked this bet when the conditions were right. The conditions were right in this race. The tote analysis showed at the 3m mark that the #3 horse was at even odds (1/1) and the #4 horse was at 2/1. These two horses were solid favorites in the race. The trifecta bet then was 3,4/3,4/ALL. The race finished with 3-4-7. The $1 trifecta paid $13.20 and cost $10. This gave us a net gain of $3.20. The $1 exacta box of the two favorites paid $4.50 and cost $2.00, a net gain of $2.50.
[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]
The 4th race had four scratched horses. We don't pay as much attention to the M/L and P/L favorite with all these scratches. This is the kind of race where we pay attention to the tote analysis and where the money is coming into the betting. It can really pay off. At the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The exacta bet here is to use all 4 of these horses in an exacta box (1,2,7,10). The race result was 10 - 7. A nice $1 exacta payoff of $27.00. The net gain was ($27.00 - $12) $15.00.
Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. I decided not to bet this race.
[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]
On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. The exacta bet here was 1/ALL and ALL/1. 2B came on to beat 1 with an exacta payoff of $16.90 and a cost of ($5 + $5) $10.00. The net gain was $6.90.
In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The exacta bet was 4/ALL and ALL/4. The result was 4 - 6 for a nice exacta payoff of $34.30. The cost was $18.00. A very nice net gain of $16.30.
[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]
The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstreams leading rider brought the horse in for the win. The exacta bet was with the two favorites, 3 and 7 both at 8/5 odds at the 3m mark, 3,7/ALL. The $1 exacta paid $18.60. The cost was $14.00 so the net gain was $4.60.
Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was in conclusive and didn't show much so I didn't bet this race.
The total net gain for the exacta betting for the afternoon was ($5.60 + $3.20 + $15 + $6.90 + $16.30 + $4.60) $45.60. Not bad for $1 betting.
Note that the net gain for win betting was $15.80. Which type bet do you like?
'til the next article. Good luck and enjoy yourself.
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