As you have probably noticed for those of you visiting my blog on a regular basis over the last two months that I have had a poll about the pick 3 bet. The poll turned out as follows.
Poll: What is your success with Pick 3's?
over 100% net gain ..... 0%
50 - 100% net gain ..... 11%
0 - 50% net gain .......... 33%
negative net gain ......... 56%
It is apparent from this poll that the pick 3 is a losing bet over 1/2 the time for my poll participants. This is disappointing to me but I can understand why.
I have played the pick 3 quite a bit and the big mistake that can be made is using 'bet combinations' that are too small to have much of a chance of winning. If you have access to TVG you can get an idea of the cost of a pick 3 that needs to be made to have a good chance of winning. The analysts on TVG who share their picks with you hardly ever have a pick 3 selection under $18.
Some rough calculations of mine based on my own experience reveals that on the average (assuming $1 pick 3's that have won):
Combinations that cost Win %
less than $18 ....................8%
$18 to $27 ........................20%
$27 to $42........................ 32%
greater than $42............. 40%
You can see that to be successsful with pick 3's that you need pick 3 combinations that cost over $18. The payoffs for pick 3's can be large at times when you put long shots in your combination. To do this, however, you need to invest enough money in your bet to raise the probablility of your winning.
If you do not want to risk larger amounts of money with your pick 3 bets then it may well be best not to wager these bets.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
10 Cent Superfecta Poll Results
My 10 Cent Superfecta Poll has been on my blog for a couple of months now and the final results are now in.
What is your success with the 10 cent superfectas?
Over 100% net gain 7%
50 to 100% net gain 13%
0 to 50% net gain 40%
negative net gain 40%
Total 100%
The results are very encouraging to me. 20% of the horseplayers participating in my poll are getting a net gain of 50% or more. 60% of those using the 10 cent superfecta are making money on the bet. It's the small time bettor that is using this bet (the high rollers use $2 superfectas that can run into hundreds and thousands of dollars) and it certainly seems from the poll results that 60% have found a way to make some money.
I have a new poll that will run for a couple of months. What is your success with the Pick 3?
See the side panel on my blog. Let me know how you are doing with your pick 3's.
Thanks to all who have participated.
What is your success with the 10 cent superfectas?
Over 100% net gain 7%
50 to 100% net gain 13%
0 to 50% net gain 40%
negative net gain 40%
Total 100%
The results are very encouraging to me. 20% of the horseplayers participating in my poll are getting a net gain of 50% or more. 60% of those using the 10 cent superfecta are making money on the bet. It's the small time bettor that is using this bet (the high rollers use $2 superfectas that can run into hundreds and thousands of dollars) and it certainly seems from the poll results that 60% have found a way to make some money.
I have a new poll that will run for a couple of months. What is your success with the Pick 3?
See the side panel on my blog. Let me know how you are doing with your pick 3's.
Thanks to all who have participated.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Conditional Betting
What is conditional betting? Recently Twinspires offers the capability of making conditional bets. These are bets that are only executed if the condition you specify is satisfied. Why would you want to make a conditional bet? Some horse players already watch the toteboard to see if certain conditions are met before they place a bet. This is a rather intensive activity that can play upon your emotions. Many times not a good situation to be in. Also waiting to right before the race starts, 1 or 2 minutes before, you may not be able to get to a window at the track to place the bet. Rather than having to watch the toteboard constantly you can enter the conditional bet and not even be where the toteboard is available to you. You can be at home and enter the bet over the internet. Then you can check later and see what the result is.
So what does a conditional bet look like? Here is an example.
Race #3 07/01/2008
Philadelphia
$20.00 Win (6/5 @ 2mtp)
#4
$20.00
In race #3 on the 1st of July at Philadelphia Park I entered a $20 win bet on the #4 horse with the condition that the tote must be 6/5 or lower with 2 minutes to post. If that condition was satisfied then the bet was entered and executed.
Right now you can place conditional bets on win, place and show bets and exactas. The restriction on exactas is that the bet is a simple exacta bet like horse A with horse B. No boxes or key exactas can be conditional. This doesn't keep you from making multiple simple exactas however. That's a little laborious to do but it can be done if you have the patience.
I am experimenting with strategies that include conditional betting. I'll report back to you later on how well the strategies work.
Stay tuned.
So what does a conditional bet look like? Here is an example.
Race #3 07/01/2008
Philadelphia
$20.00 Win (6/5 @ 2mtp)
#4
$20.00
In race #3 on the 1st of July at Philadelphia Park I entered a $20 win bet on the #4 horse with the condition that the tote must be 6/5 or lower with 2 minutes to post. If that condition was satisfied then the bet was entered and executed.
Right now you can place conditional bets on win, place and show bets and exactas. The restriction on exactas is that the bet is a simple exacta bet like horse A with horse B. No boxes or key exactas can be conditional. This doesn't keep you from making multiple simple exactas however. That's a little laborious to do but it can be done if you have the patience.
I am experimenting with strategies that include conditional betting. I'll report back to you later on how well the strategies work.
Stay tuned.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Pick 3 Aberrations
As you know from my previous blog I have been testing new strategies using the pick 3. In this article I want to show you two extreme aberrations that have occurred in the course of a week; the Belmont Stakes on June 7th and high profile races at Churchill Downs on June 14th. Since writing my last blog "Pick 3 Research" I have been concentrating on pick 3 strategies that locate races where the favorite has a high probablility of winning. A race that had one of the highest probabilities of winning was the Belmont Stakes. Big Brown was a certain winner if there ever was one. (I was not alone in this assessment.) It was almost certain until the race was run. Probabilities are just probabilities, no matter how high they are and nothing more. Anything can happen in a race and it did.
As a strategy that I was testing on June 7th I chose to arrange three pick 3 bets using Big Brown to win in the 11th race. The first pick 3 started in race 9, the second started in the 10th, and the third started in the 11th race. Here is a case where all three bets lost with Big Brown losing in the 11th. What is the lesson to be learned from this. The outcome in one race can affect several other bets. Betting across races can be very costly even with smaller amounts of money. Also you have to wait until the races in the bet are completed to know whether you have a winning ticket. Betting within a race has more immediate gratification. This experience has given me insight into aberrations that can occur in strategies that sometimes are overlooked.
On June 14th, a week later, I experienced a new and highly improbable aberration at Churchill Downs. I saw before my eyes 6 morning line favorites win 6 consecutive races. These races also happened to be the 6 races in the pick 6. The probability of this happening is very very small. Starting with the 6th race there were 4 consecutive pick 3's that had 3 favorites in the outcome. The probability of this happening is .03.
Let me summarize the results for both weekends. On Belmont Stakes day there was no ticket that hit the pick 6. It carried over to the following Wednesday. The horseplaying public could not visualize Big Brown losing. (That included me!) However, there were some pick 3 and pick 4 players who won on the pick 3 starting in the 9th race, $6,475.00, and $34,287.00 on the pick 4 that started in the 8th race. Because of the cost factor being lower there were long shots (infact, the longest on the board) included in the pick 3 and pick 4 combinations for race 11. On June 14th at Churchill Downs the morning line favorites Hystericalady, Pure Clan, Pyro, Tizdejavu, Curlin, and Dreaming of Anna were the winning picks in the pick 6 which paid $48.00. The $2 pick 3's starting with race 6 paid $14.60, 47.00, 31.80, 19.40 respectively.
What a difference a week makes in the extremes of horse racing. Stay tuned for results of my research.
'til then.
As a strategy that I was testing on June 7th I chose to arrange three pick 3 bets using Big Brown to win in the 11th race. The first pick 3 started in race 9, the second started in the 10th, and the third started in the 11th race. Here is a case where all three bets lost with Big Brown losing in the 11th. What is the lesson to be learned from this. The outcome in one race can affect several other bets. Betting across races can be very costly even with smaller amounts of money. Also you have to wait until the races in the bet are completed to know whether you have a winning ticket. Betting within a race has more immediate gratification. This experience has given me insight into aberrations that can occur in strategies that sometimes are overlooked.
On June 14th, a week later, I experienced a new and highly improbable aberration at Churchill Downs. I saw before my eyes 6 morning line favorites win 6 consecutive races. These races also happened to be the 6 races in the pick 6. The probability of this happening is very very small. Starting with the 6th race there were 4 consecutive pick 3's that had 3 favorites in the outcome. The probability of this happening is .03.
Let me summarize the results for both weekends. On Belmont Stakes day there was no ticket that hit the pick 6. It carried over to the following Wednesday. The horseplaying public could not visualize Big Brown losing. (That included me!) However, there were some pick 3 and pick 4 players who won on the pick 3 starting in the 9th race, $6,475.00, and $34,287.00 on the pick 4 that started in the 8th race. Because of the cost factor being lower there were long shots (infact, the longest on the board) included in the pick 3 and pick 4 combinations for race 11. On June 14th at Churchill Downs the morning line favorites Hystericalady, Pure Clan, Pyro, Tizdejavu, Curlin, and Dreaming of Anna were the winning picks in the pick 6 which paid $48.00. The $2 pick 3's starting with race 6 paid $14.60, 47.00, 31.80, 19.40 respectively.
What a difference a week makes in the extremes of horse racing. Stay tuned for results of my research.
'til then.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Pick 3 Research
Thanks to a comment I received on my blog from a reader, I was pointed to an article (http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf) on research about the pick 3. The article was couched in some mathematical statistics but has revealed some interesting results that may prove to be quite useful in developing some betting strategies. I am in the process of using these results in some experiments to see their usefulness. I will report to you at a later time about what I have found out.
Here are the obvious points that sparked my interest from this article. First, when you look at a pick 3 you are looking for the horses that will win in three consecutive races. Further, you focus in on whether the favorite in the race will win. It is well known that the favorite in a race will win about 30% (+-3%) of the time at any track in the country. Concentrating on the pick 3 you wonder how many pick 3's will have 0 favorites in the final outcome. How many will have 1 favorite in the final outcome. How many will have 2 favorites when the races are finished. How many will have 3 favorites in the final outcome. This article gives us some statistical evidence about what to expect.
An empirical analysis at Santa Anita by the author showed that out of 176 wagering opportunities that a pick 3 with no (0) winning favorites in the outcome occurred 36% of the time. With 1 favorite in the outcome, this occurred 42% of the time. With 2 favorites in the outcome, this occurred 19% of the time. With all three favorites in the outcome, this occurred just 3% of the time. What does this suggest? Don't depend on the favorite in your pick 3's. If you do include the favorite expect only one favorite in the outcome. 78% of the time there will be only 1 favorite or no favorites at all in the outcome. It takes guts to follow these results because the betting public tends to always include the favorites in their choice of pick 3 combinations. This therefore raises the cost of the bet when the cost does not match the benefit.
I will be looking at some strategies that take into account these statistical results.
Stay tuned ... I'll report back to you later.
Here are the obvious points that sparked my interest from this article. First, when you look at a pick 3 you are looking for the horses that will win in three consecutive races. Further, you focus in on whether the favorite in the race will win. It is well known that the favorite in a race will win about 30% (+-3%) of the time at any track in the country. Concentrating on the pick 3 you wonder how many pick 3's will have 0 favorites in the final outcome. How many will have 1 favorite in the final outcome. How many will have 2 favorites when the races are finished. How many will have 3 favorites in the final outcome. This article gives us some statistical evidence about what to expect.
An empirical analysis at Santa Anita by the author showed that out of 176 wagering opportunities that a pick 3 with no (0) winning favorites in the outcome occurred 36% of the time. With 1 favorite in the outcome, this occurred 42% of the time. With 2 favorites in the outcome, this occurred 19% of the time. With all three favorites in the outcome, this occurred just 3% of the time. What does this suggest? Don't depend on the favorite in your pick 3's. If you do include the favorite expect only one favorite in the outcome. 78% of the time there will be only 1 favorite or no favorites at all in the outcome. It takes guts to follow these results because the betting public tends to always include the favorites in their choice of pick 3 combinations. This therefore raises the cost of the bet when the cost does not match the benefit.
I will be looking at some strategies that take into account these statistical results.
Stay tuned ... I'll report back to you later.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Bets Within a Race and Bets Across Races
When you bet an exacta, quinella, trifecta, or superfecta your bet is completed when the race is over. These bets are within a race. When you bet a daily double, a pick three, a pick four, or a pick six your bet is completed when the last race in the bet has finished. The strategies for these two kinds of bets are quite different. The principle of "bets within a race" is to pick the best 2,3,4,5 or 6 horses in a race. The principle of "bets across races" is to pick the possible winners in each race.
Let's start with "bets within a race" first. For an exacta and a quinella to pay off you need to concentrate on the horses that you feel can come in first or second. Let's suppose that there are 10 horses in a race. You get your Daily Racing Form and start studying the 10 horses in the race. After considerable deliberation you come to the conclusion that there are only two horses in this race that you believe can win or place. With this belief your bet is easy and inexpensive. You can do an exacta box of these two horses ( a quinella if this bet is allowed in this race at this track). If however, you come to the conclusion that out of the ten horses in the race that 5 of them are capable of winning or placing then you have a bit more to consider. You can place an $1 exacta box of these five horses but it will be a bit more expensive, $20 to be exact. I want to illustrate here that two factors that are all important. One is the cost of the bet and the other is how badly you want to win the bet. Using similar logic for a trifecta, or a superfecta it always gets down to cost and your desire to win. To increase your probability of winning it will cost more for the bet. How much you will spend depends how big your bankroll is and how much you are willing to spend on any one bet. The best thing you can do is to understand your tolerance level.
Bets across races need a different strategy. These kind of bets depend only on the horse that wins the race in each race of the bet. You can start with "singles". A "single" is using only one horse in a race. You need to be very confident in your belief that this horse will win the race. Big Brown in the Preakness was a good example. The other races where you need 2, 3, 4 or more horses for that race is where the cost of the bet goes up. Daily doubles, pick 3's, pick 4's can be more attractive to the horseplayer with a modest bankroll. Magna 5's and pick 6's are bets where you need a significant amount of money to have a good chance of winning. Twinspires had a pool for the pick 6 on Derby Day that you could get in on for as little as $10. You could even bet as much as $1000 which was the limit. Some of the pick 6 bets in the pool were $50000 +. To show you how difficult the pick 6 is, on Derby Day there were no tickets that got 6 out of 6. The total pool was $75000 +. Fortunately, in the pool there were several superfecta bets on the Kentucky Derby. Two of them paid almost $30000 each. If you were in the pool even though the pool didn't win the pick 6, the superfectas earned back enough to almost break even. A very nice strategy in the pool.
'til next time.
Let's start with "bets within a race" first. For an exacta and a quinella to pay off you need to concentrate on the horses that you feel can come in first or second. Let's suppose that there are 10 horses in a race. You get your Daily Racing Form and start studying the 10 horses in the race. After considerable deliberation you come to the conclusion that there are only two horses in this race that you believe can win or place. With this belief your bet is easy and inexpensive. You can do an exacta box of these two horses ( a quinella if this bet is allowed in this race at this track). If however, you come to the conclusion that out of the ten horses in the race that 5 of them are capable of winning or placing then you have a bit more to consider. You can place an $1 exacta box of these five horses but it will be a bit more expensive, $20 to be exact. I want to illustrate here that two factors that are all important. One is the cost of the bet and the other is how badly you want to win the bet. Using similar logic for a trifecta, or a superfecta it always gets down to cost and your desire to win. To increase your probability of winning it will cost more for the bet. How much you will spend depends how big your bankroll is and how much you are willing to spend on any one bet. The best thing you can do is to understand your tolerance level.
Bets across races need a different strategy. These kind of bets depend only on the horse that wins the race in each race of the bet. You can start with "singles". A "single" is using only one horse in a race. You need to be very confident in your belief that this horse will win the race. Big Brown in the Preakness was a good example. The other races where you need 2, 3, 4 or more horses for that race is where the cost of the bet goes up. Daily doubles, pick 3's, pick 4's can be more attractive to the horseplayer with a modest bankroll. Magna 5's and pick 6's are bets where you need a significant amount of money to have a good chance of winning. Twinspires had a pool for the pick 6 on Derby Day that you could get in on for as little as $10. You could even bet as much as $1000 which was the limit. Some of the pick 6 bets in the pool were $50000 +. To show you how difficult the pick 6 is, on Derby Day there were no tickets that got 6 out of 6. The total pool was $75000 +. Fortunately, in the pool there were several superfecta bets on the Kentucky Derby. Two of them paid almost $30000 each. If you were in the pool even though the pool didn't win the pick 6, the superfectas earned back enough to almost break even. A very nice strategy in the pool.
'til next time.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Trifecta Research
I would like to solicit your help. I'm looking into the Trifecta bet to see how horseplayers use the Trifecta bet in their tool kit of bets. I have set up two polls that I would ask you to participate in.
Here are the two polls:
1) When you bet trifectas, what is the average cost of your bet?
2) What is your success with trifecta bets?
Click on the following two links to enter your data. (Click on the back button after you have finished making your entries.)
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/TrifectaCost.htm
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/TrifectaSuccess.htm
I will follow up later with an article on my blog.
Thanks for your participation.
Here are the two polls:
1) When you bet trifectas, what is the average cost of your bet?
2) What is your success with trifecta bets?
Click on the following two links to enter your data. (Click on the back button after you have finished making your entries.)
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/TrifectaCost.htm
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/TrifectaSuccess.htm
I will follow up later with an article on my blog.
Thanks for your participation.
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