Wednesday, October 3, 2012
2012 Breeders Cup Races Fast Approaching
The 2012 Breeders Cup Races are fast approaching. These races have the horses that are the cream of the crop - they are the best of the best. This fact alone means that any horse in the race can win thus handicapping is, to say the least, very difficult.
I have kept a very detail set of notes and empirical statistics from the 2011 BC races. It's many times very informative to see what happened last year. It should be noted that what happens this year may be very different than what happened last year, however, knowing the potential possibility of long shots winning in any race is a very important part of your wagering strategy.
Let me summarize last year's results and point out some of the interesting things that happened. In the 2011 BC races out of 9 races there was only one race where the favorite won. It was not a day to bet favorites. All 9 races had 9 or more horses in each race, some had 14. The favorite that did win was in the 6th race the BC Turf Sprint. Corey Nakatani rode Regally Ready for the win. A morning line 3/1 odds favorite that paid $6.60 to win. All the other races were won by long shots and in two of the races they were very long shots, 30/1 morning line. These two races had Black Swan long shots that won. They were races 3 and 10. Race 3 was the BC Marathon, a 17 furlong race won by Afleet Again and ridden by Corneilio Velasquez and paid for a $2 win bet $85.20. Race 10 was the BC Mile. It was won by another 30/1 morning line horse. Jon Court rode Court Vision for the win and a $2 bet paid $131.60.
Although race 2 was not one of the Breeders Cup races, Hall of Fame Jockey Mike Smith won 3 races: races 2, 5, and 11. Mike won race 5, the BC Turf Sprint, aboard Amazombie a 5/1 morning line that paid $17.80. He also won race 11 the BC Classic riding Drosselmeyer, a 15/1 morning line that paid $31.60 to win.
The Europeans won 2 races. Race 4 was the BC Juvenile Turf. Ryan Moore rode Wrote a 12/1 morning line for the win that paid $25.50. Race 8 was the BC Turf. J. O'Brien rode St Nicholas Abbey, a 9/2 morning line, for the win which paid $15.60.
Being from Oklahoma where Donnie Von Hemel has won the training title numerous times at Remington Park, race 7 was particularly impressive to me because Caleb's Posse came roaring to the finish to win. Donnie was the horse's trainer and the horse was owned by Oklahoman Don McNeill. The horse was named for Don McNeill's grandson. Don McNeill was unable to be there because he is suffering from leukemia. Race 7 was the BC Dirt Mile. Caleb's Posse was ridden by Rajiv Maragh and paid $15.60 to win.
Race 9 was the BC Juvenile. Ramon Dominguez rode Hansen to the win over Union Rags and paid $16.20 for the win.
Here are the summary of results in order by race with race number, morning line, and $2 win payoff.
Race 3 30/1 $85.20, Race 4 12/1 $25.50, Race 5 5/1 $17.80, Race 6 3/1 $6.60, Race 7 5/1 $17.80, Race 8 9/2 $15.60, Race 9 10/1 $16.20, Race 10 30/1 $131.60, Race 11 15/1 $31.60
Let's look at some "what if you had" situations.
If you rank the morning lines odds for each race from lowest to highest odds here is one way to look at the results. Associate ML1 with the morning line favorite, ML2 is the second morning line favorite, ML5 is the 5th morning line favorite, etc. If you had bet $2 to win on ML1,ML2,ML3,ML4,ML5 that would be a $10 bet in each race. You would have won in races 5,6,7,8,9 for a total of $74.00. Since you don't know which races will win you have to bet all nine races. The cost for all 9 races would have been $90.00. A loss of $16. About 60% of the time ML1 to ML5 do win.
Instead, 'What if ' you had bet $2 win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 for those races with 10 or more horses in the race. In the races with 10 to 14 horses in the race which would include races 3,4,6,9,10,11 if you had bet $2 to win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 you would have won the 3rd and the 10th race. The 3rd paid $85.20 and the 10th paid $131.60. Actually you would have bet ML10,ML11 a $4 bet on race 3. You would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 a $10 bet on race 4. On race 6 you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 an $8 bet. Race 9 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 another $8 bet. Race 10 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 again another $8 bet. In Race 11 you would have bet another $8 on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13. This was a total of $42 to win ($85.20 + $131.60 =) $216.80.
Now 'what if' you had "bet 'em all" in each race with a $2 win bet, how would you have made out? Well as it turns out it would have cost you $206.00. You would have won $347.90. A Return On Investment (ROI) of 69%. If you look at my previous article on my blog you would see that under the proper circumstances with 'wide open races' and 'very high class horses', this is not a bad strategy and can be quite profitable.
Good luck and have fun this year on November 3rd.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
A Different Betting Strategy
It may sound crazy at first but bare with me for a bit. There are some interesting characteristics of horse racing that makes it different from other wagering venues like the stock or options market trading. There are a limited number of horses in a race (usually less than 14 but sometimes as many as 20 as in the Kentucky Derby). Quarter horse races are usually no more than 10 horses. Most races are completed under 2 minutes. The results and payoffs are made available immediately after a race is finished and declared official. You know right away whether you won or lost.
Let's consider what would happen if you bet on all of the horses in a race to win. You would for sure win the bet. However, would you make money or lose money on this bet? I was first exposed to this idea a number of years ago when I was at the Kentucky Derby and by chance entered into a conversation with an older lady from Louisville who told me that she had won the Kentucky Derby for the last twenty- five years. My reaction at the time was ... really? How did you do that? She proceeded to tell me that she always bets every horse in the Kentucky Derby to win. She did tell me the truth now didn't she. This deserves bragging rights! I got to thinking later, just how much would you win or lose over the last 8 or 10 years if you bet like she did on the Kentucky Derby? I did a little research on the internet and here is what I found with $2 bets.
Odds Paid Cost Win/Lose
2012 I'll Have Another 15.30 32.60 40.00 -7.40
2011 Animal Kingdom 8.00 18.00 40.00 -22.00
2010 Super Saver 20.90 43.80 40.00 +3.80
2009 Mine that Bird 50.60 103.20 40.00 +63.20 (+37.60)
2008 Big Brown 2.40 6.80 40.00 -33.20
2007 Street Sense 4.90 11.80 40.00 -28.20
2006 Barbaro 6.10 14.20 40.00 -25.80
2005 Giacomo 50.30 102.60 40.00 +62.60 (+13.00)
For the last 4 years you would be ahead $37.60. For the last 8 years you would still be ahead but only $13.00.
I decided to go further with this idea in everyday betting. So I started with the hypothetical idea of betting all the horses in a race and then work backwards. [The usual approach is to find the horse(s) you think is going to win and then work forward.]
If you "bet them all" then you always win the bet. Whether you gain money or lose money on the bet is something else. For example let's assume there are 8 horses in a race we pick. If you bet 7 of the 8 horses to win then the only way you lose the bet is if the one horse you didn't bet wins. Otherwise you will win the bet. Again whether you make or lose money on the bet depends on the odds of the horse that wins. To illustrate, suppose the horse that won is one of the 7 you bet to win and the horse went off at 7/1 odds. On a $2 win bet the payoff would be $16. Your cost to bet the 7 horses would be $14. Your net winnings for this bet would be ($16 - 14 =) $2. If the horse that won went off at 3/1 odds, then your net would be ($8 - 14 =) -$6 or a loss of $6. In other words you won the bet but lost money.
If we move backwards to betting 6 or 5 or 4 or 3 or 2 horses again depends on the horses you bet or didn't bet. It will also depend on the odds the winning horse went off at and what it cost you to make the bet. If you bet 5 of 8 horses to win then you lose the bet with 3 horses and win with 5.
Looking at win betting in this way allows you to place a bet that takes into account a possible win with a long shot or a very long shot included in the bet. Long shots do come in but when and what do you look for?
The Kentucky Derby is a good example for "betting them all" as we showed earlier. Stakes Races are also a good place to look. But why? In the Kentucky Derby there is always a large field of horses, typically 20 horses. Many of these horses will have very long odds. There is not a horse in the field that the trainer for the horse does not believe that the horse can win. These are the finest cream of the crop 3 year olds. They will all be going for it.
This is also true for Grade I, II, and III stakes races. The advantage with the stakes races is that there is usually far less then 20 horses in the race competing. This makes the cost of the bet a lot less. Take Saratoga this summer. Race 8 on July 30th was the Shakespeare Caress Stakes. There were 8 horses in the race. Rosa Salvaie won and paid $41.40 on a $2 bet. The cost of the "bet them all" bet was $16. This was a $25.40 gain. Race 10 on August 5th was the Grade I Vanderbilt Handicap. There were 8 horses in this race. Poseidon's Warrior won and paid $74.50. This was a spectacular gain of $58.50 on a $2 bet. R1 on August 9th was the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes. There were 8 horses in this race also. Cat Feathers won this "Two And One Sixteenth Miles On The Hurdle" race and paid $48.60 for a $2 bet. This was a $32.60 gain.
The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.
Let's consider what would happen if you bet on all of the horses in a race to win. You would for sure win the bet. However, would you make money or lose money on this bet? I was first exposed to this idea a number of years ago when I was at the Kentucky Derby and by chance entered into a conversation with an older lady from Louisville who told me that she had won the Kentucky Derby for the last twenty- five years. My reaction at the time was ... really? How did you do that? She proceeded to tell me that she always bets every horse in the Kentucky Derby to win. She did tell me the truth now didn't she. This deserves bragging rights! I got to thinking later, just how much would you win or lose over the last 8 or 10 years if you bet like she did on the Kentucky Derby? I did a little research on the internet and here is what I found with $2 bets.
Odds Paid Cost Win/Lose
2012 I'll Have Another 15.30 32.60 40.00 -7.40
2011 Animal Kingdom 8.00 18.00 40.00 -22.00
2010 Super Saver 20.90 43.80 40.00 +3.80
2009 Mine that Bird 50.60 103.20 40.00 +63.20 (+37.60)
2008 Big Brown 2.40 6.80 40.00 -33.20
2007 Street Sense 4.90 11.80 40.00 -28.20
2006 Barbaro 6.10 14.20 40.00 -25.80
2005 Giacomo 50.30 102.60 40.00 +62.60 (+13.00)
For the last 4 years you would be ahead $37.60. For the last 8 years you would still be ahead but only $13.00.
I decided to go further with this idea in everyday betting. So I started with the hypothetical idea of betting all the horses in a race and then work backwards. [The usual approach is to find the horse(s) you think is going to win and then work forward.]
If you "bet them all" then you always win the bet. Whether you gain money or lose money on the bet is something else. For example let's assume there are 8 horses in a race we pick. If you bet 7 of the 8 horses to win then the only way you lose the bet is if the one horse you didn't bet wins. Otherwise you will win the bet. Again whether you make or lose money on the bet depends on the odds of the horse that wins. To illustrate, suppose the horse that won is one of the 7 you bet to win and the horse went off at 7/1 odds. On a $2 win bet the payoff would be $16. Your cost to bet the 7 horses would be $14. Your net winnings for this bet would be ($16 - 14 =) $2. If the horse that won went off at 3/1 odds, then your net would be ($8 - 14 =) -$6 or a loss of $6. In other words you won the bet but lost money.
If we move backwards to betting 6 or 5 or 4 or 3 or 2 horses again depends on the horses you bet or didn't bet. It will also depend on the odds the winning horse went off at and what it cost you to make the bet. If you bet 5 of 8 horses to win then you lose the bet with 3 horses and win with 5.
Looking at win betting in this way allows you to place a bet that takes into account a possible win with a long shot or a very long shot included in the bet. Long shots do come in but when and what do you look for?
The Kentucky Derby is a good example for "betting them all" as we showed earlier. Stakes Races are also a good place to look. But why? In the Kentucky Derby there is always a large field of horses, typically 20 horses. Many of these horses will have very long odds. There is not a horse in the field that the trainer for the horse does not believe that the horse can win. These are the finest cream of the crop 3 year olds. They will all be going for it.
This is also true for Grade I, II, and III stakes races. The advantage with the stakes races is that there is usually far less then 20 horses in the race competing. This makes the cost of the bet a lot less. Take Saratoga this summer. Race 8 on July 30th was the Shakespeare Caress Stakes. There were 8 horses in the race. Rosa Salvaie won and paid $41.40 on a $2 bet. The cost of the "bet them all" bet was $16. This was a $25.40 gain. Race 10 on August 5th was the Grade I Vanderbilt Handicap. There were 8 horses in this race. Poseidon's Warrior won and paid $74.50. This was a spectacular gain of $58.50 on a $2 bet. R1 on August 9th was the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes. There were 8 horses in this race also. Cat Feathers won this "Two And One Sixteenth Miles On The Hurdle" race and paid $48.60 for a $2 bet. This was a $32.60 gain.
The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.
Monday, March 12, 2012
The Spring Quarterhorse Meet at Remington Park 2011
The Spring Quarterhorse Meet at Remington Park has begun on March 2nd. The first few days have been devoted mostly to qualifying trials for the upcoming stakes races. The 2 year olds have been competing at 300 yards for the Oklahoma Futurity. The 3 year olds have been competing at 350 yards for the Oklahoma Derby.
This meet we're going to be keeping track of some of the statistics related to our success last year with side-by-side betting that we have concentrated on in the past. I'll also be looking in this meet for horses that will be hooking up as side-by-side pairs as well as three or four horses that may be hooking up to create a race within a race. We'll be looking for ways to detect these patterns. Hopefully, the frequency will occur often enough to make the patterns of this type betting profitable. I'll be reporting on this as the meet proceeds and I'll give you some statistics to show the results.
It will also be important this time to show how to preserve your betting capital by detecting those races to avoid. This is as important as finding those races that will be profitable.
******************************************************************************
In the first 18 racing days of the 2011 Quarter Horse meet there have been 51 side-by-side bet results. This is on average 2.83 side-by-side bet results per day. The average exacta payoff is $64.70. G R Carter was involved with either the win or place position of the side-by-side bet 17 out of 51 times. That's one third of the
time. Carter's average exacta payoff was $47.41. His highest exacta payoff was
$144.80 and the lowest was $7.80.
If Jimmy Brooks, and Larry Payne were included then 60% of the side-by-side bet
payouts involved these three. 6 out of 51 were Black Swan results. The average
Black Swan payout was $172.23.
The results for the first 17 days are found at this link.
http://billwinters.org/2011QuarterHorseMeet/SideBySideResults.pdf/
Previously in my blog for those unfamilar with 'Side-by-side Betting' here are
several articles about
"Side-By-Side Quarter Horse Bets"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/side-by-side-quarter-horse-bets.html,
"Remington Park Quarterhorse Side-by-side Results"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/remington-park-quarterhorse-side-by.html,
"Side-by-side Betting with Trifectas"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/side-by-side-betting-with-trifectas.html,
"Side-by-side Betting with Ten Cent Superfectas"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/04/side-by-side-betting-with-ten-cent.html and
"Black Swan Betting"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2009/08/black-swan-betting.html
This meet we're going to be keeping track of some of the statistics related to our success last year with side-by-side betting that we have concentrated on in the past. I'll also be looking in this meet for horses that will be hooking up as side-by-side pairs as well as three or four horses that may be hooking up to create a race within a race. We'll be looking for ways to detect these patterns. Hopefully, the frequency will occur often enough to make the patterns of this type betting profitable. I'll be reporting on this as the meet proceeds and I'll give you some statistics to show the results.
It will also be important this time to show how to preserve your betting capital by detecting those races to avoid. This is as important as finding those races that will be profitable.
******************************************************************************
In the first 18 racing days of the 2011 Quarter Horse meet there have been 51 side-by-side bet results. This is on average 2.83 side-by-side bet results per day. The average exacta payoff is $64.70. G R Carter was involved with either the win or place position of the side-by-side bet 17 out of 51 times. That's one third of the
time. Carter's average exacta payoff was $47.41. His highest exacta payoff was
$144.80 and the lowest was $7.80.
If Jimmy Brooks, and Larry Payne were included then 60% of the side-by-side bet
payouts involved these three. 6 out of 51 were Black Swan results. The average
Black Swan payout was $172.23.
The results for the first 17 days are found at this link.
http://billwinters.org/2011QuarterHorseMeet/SideBySideResults.pdf/
Previously in my blog for those unfamilar with 'Side-by-side Betting' here are
several articles about
"Side-By-Side Quarter Horse Bets"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/side-by-side-quarter-horse-bets.html,
"Remington Park Quarterhorse Side-by-side Results"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/remington-park-quarterhorse-side-by.html,
"Side-by-side Betting with Trifectas"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/side-by-side-betting-with-trifectas.html,
"Side-by-side Betting with Ten Cent Superfectas"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/04/side-by-side-betting-with-ten-cent.html and
"Black Swan Betting"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2009/08/black-swan-betting.html
Saturday, September 10, 2011
Structuring an Exacta Bet
[For the beginner.]
What is an exacta bet? Very simply an "exacta" is when two horses in a race come in first and second after the race is over. An "exacta bet" is placed before the race. It is structured by you so you think you have the best chance to win the bet. Structuring an exacta bet can be quite simple or it can be much more elaborate.
Let's take the simplest case. Suppose you handicap a race and come up with a very strong opinion that horse 3 will win and horse 8 will come in second. A straight exacta bet would be placed as (for example) $2 exacta 3 with 8 or more conveniently as $2 exacta 3/8. Depending on how strong your opinion is it could be a $5 or $10 or $20 or $50 exacta bet.
Next, suppose you handicap a race and come up with a very strong opinion that horse 2 will win. However, you find three other horses that you think could come in second, say, horses 1,6 and 9. You would then structure your bet as $2 exacta 2/1,6,9. (We will use $2 in our example.) Three possible outcomes would be a winner with this bet: 2 with 1, 2 with 6, or 2 with 9.
Let's take our examples a step further. If you think that two horses (say 1,3) could win and three other horses (say 1,3,5,7,9) could place then you would structure your bet as (assuming a $2 bet) $2 exacta 1,3/1,3,5,7,9. Any of these outcomes would win the bet: 1/3, 1/5, 1/7, 1/9, 3/1, 3/5, 3/7, 3/9. Since there are 8 possibilities, we multiply by $2 and the cost of the bet would be $16.
Another way to look at structuring an exacta bet would be what is called an exacta box. Let's say, after you handicap a race, that three horses look to be contendors to win or place. Suppose 2,9,6 are these three horses. A $1 exacta box would be $1 exacta box 2,6,9. To win this bet here are the winning combinations: 2/9, 2/6, 9/6, 9/2, 6/2, 6/9. The cost would be (6 x $1 =) $6.
The last example I'll use will be one that involves all horses in the race. Let's illustrate this bet with a one million dollar Grade I race. A race like this usually has very strong (top level) horses in the race, so strong that any of the horses in the race could potentially and realistically win or come in second. To get coverage plus have a chance for hitting a large exacta payoff here is the way you could structure your bet. Say you like the 5 horse to either win or place. You would make two exacta bets. Assuming 8 horses in the race then a $1 exacta 5/ALL (ALL = all 8 horses) would win when the 5 horse wins and any of the other horses come in second. It will cost $7. (Note that the higher the odds of the second horse the larger the exacta payoff would be.) To cover the possibility that the 5 horse might place, a second bet (sometimes called a hedge bet) would be $1 exacta ALL/5 and it too would cost $7. Together you have $14 invested in these two bets.
I have given you several exacta bet examples to get you started. There are numerous other possibilities. Remember to always factor in the cost of the bet versus the potential payoff. Also always stay within the "bankroll" you go to the track with. Here is an article on my blog that talks about the bankroll.
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/07/betting-strategies.html
For a more advanced article on the exacta bet go to this link:
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2008/02/exacta-betting-using-tote-analysis.html
To use the 'exotic wager calculator' go to
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/exotic-bets-exotic-wager-calculator.html
What is an exacta bet? Very simply an "exacta" is when two horses in a race come in first and second after the race is over. An "exacta bet" is placed before the race. It is structured by you so you think you have the best chance to win the bet. Structuring an exacta bet can be quite simple or it can be much more elaborate.
Let's take the simplest case. Suppose you handicap a race and come up with a very strong opinion that horse 3 will win and horse 8 will come in second. A straight exacta bet would be placed as (for example) $2 exacta 3 with 8 or more conveniently as $2 exacta 3/8. Depending on how strong your opinion is it could be a $5 or $10 or $20 or $50 exacta bet.
Next, suppose you handicap a race and come up with a very strong opinion that horse 2 will win. However, you find three other horses that you think could come in second, say, horses 1,6 and 9. You would then structure your bet as $2 exacta 2/1,6,9. (We will use $2 in our example.) Three possible outcomes would be a winner with this bet: 2 with 1, 2 with 6, or 2 with 9.
Let's take our examples a step further. If you think that two horses (say 1,3) could win and three other horses (say 1,3,5,7,9) could place then you would structure your bet as (assuming a $2 bet) $2 exacta 1,3/1,3,5,7,9. Any of these outcomes would win the bet: 1/3, 1/5, 1/7, 1/9, 3/1, 3/5, 3/7, 3/9. Since there are 8 possibilities, we multiply by $2 and the cost of the bet would be $16.
Another way to look at structuring an exacta bet would be what is called an exacta box. Let's say, after you handicap a race, that three horses look to be contendors to win or place. Suppose 2,9,6 are these three horses. A $1 exacta box would be $1 exacta box 2,6,9. To win this bet here are the winning combinations: 2/9, 2/6, 9/6, 9/2, 6/2, 6/9. The cost would be (6 x $1 =) $6.
The last example I'll use will be one that involves all horses in the race. Let's illustrate this bet with a one million dollar Grade I race. A race like this usually has very strong (top level) horses in the race, so strong that any of the horses in the race could potentially and realistically win or come in second. To get coverage plus have a chance for hitting a large exacta payoff here is the way you could structure your bet. Say you like the 5 horse to either win or place. You would make two exacta bets. Assuming 8 horses in the race then a $1 exacta 5/ALL (ALL = all 8 horses) would win when the 5 horse wins and any of the other horses come in second. It will cost $7. (Note that the higher the odds of the second horse the larger the exacta payoff would be.) To cover the possibility that the 5 horse might place, a second bet (sometimes called a hedge bet) would be $1 exacta ALL/5 and it too would cost $7. Together you have $14 invested in these two bets.
I have given you several exacta bet examples to get you started. There are numerous other possibilities. Remember to always factor in the cost of the bet versus the potential payoff. Also always stay within the "bankroll" you go to the track with. Here is an article on my blog that talks about the bankroll.
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/07/betting-strategies.html
For a more advanced article on the exacta bet go to this link:
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2008/02/exacta-betting-using-tote-analysis.html
To use the 'exotic wager calculator' go to
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/exotic-bets-exotic-wager-calculator.html
Thursday, August 25, 2011
What I Should Know About Handicapping and Betting
[I am being encouraged by friends and new acquaintenaces at my home race track to write some articles for beginners.]
What is horse handicapping and what should I know about betting?
Handicapping a horse race is about determining which horse (or horses) could win the race. Betting is about determining what kind of a bet to place and how to configure it. Let's talk about handicapping first. When you go to a race track you can purchase a newspaper called the Daily Racing Form (DRF). The DRF has long been the means to getting a look at the Past Performances (PP) for all horses in a race. If you have the internet you can use your PC to access the PP's before you ever get to the track. Just go to DRF.com, pick the track and date. Reading the DRF PP's, if you are new to it may seem quite formitable. If you want to become more serious about handicapping and picking potential winners I suggest you study the form (DRF) and become familiar with the terminology in it. Those who do not use the form may resort to tip sheets. These are put together and sold by individuals who rate horses in a race. I have found that if you are at the track strictly for fun then tip sheets may be an easy way to skip the handicapping, use someone elses picks and have fun.
Placing a bet is determining what kind of a bet you will make and how you will structure it. There are many bets that can be structured. 50 years ago when I first went to Saratoga Race Track, close to where I lived at the time, there were three main bets that you could make; WIN, PLACE, and SHOW. Today there are many more bets that can be made at the track, at a simulcasting location, or over the internet. I'll list a few of them. WIN, PLACE, SHOW, QUINELLA, EXACTA, TRIFECTA, SUPERFECTA, DAILY DOUBLE, PICK 3, PICK 4, PICK 5, PICK 6. Each track across the country has some or many of these bets that can be placed depending on the race.
Doing your homework: A lot of homework can be done ahead of time to prepare for placing the bets you will make. As I mentioned before for those of you, especially starting out, you may prefer not to do any of this homework. You can buy tip sheets at the track and rely on someone else's opinions. You can decide whether you want to become a serious player or go to the track just to have some fun. It's up to you.
I hope this helps out the beginner to get started. Here are some links to past articles in my blog for further reading.
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/11/can-i-play-horses-over-internet_29.html
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/stay-on-top-of-your-handicapping.html
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/tote-picks.html
What is horse handicapping and what should I know about betting?
Handicapping a horse race is about determining which horse (or horses) could win the race. Betting is about determining what kind of a bet to place and how to configure it. Let's talk about handicapping first. When you go to a race track you can purchase a newspaper called the Daily Racing Form (DRF). The DRF has long been the means to getting a look at the Past Performances (PP) for all horses in a race. If you have the internet you can use your PC to access the PP's before you ever get to the track. Just go to DRF.com, pick the track and date. Reading the DRF PP's, if you are new to it may seem quite formitable. If you want to become more serious about handicapping and picking potential winners I suggest you study the form (DRF) and become familiar with the terminology in it. Those who do not use the form may resort to tip sheets. These are put together and sold by individuals who rate horses in a race. I have found that if you are at the track strictly for fun then tip sheets may be an easy way to skip the handicapping, use someone elses picks and have fun.
Placing a bet is determining what kind of a bet you will make and how you will structure it. There are many bets that can be structured. 50 years ago when I first went to Saratoga Race Track, close to where I lived at the time, there were three main bets that you could make; WIN, PLACE, and SHOW. Today there are many more bets that can be made at the track, at a simulcasting location, or over the internet. I'll list a few of them. WIN, PLACE, SHOW, QUINELLA, EXACTA, TRIFECTA, SUPERFECTA, DAILY DOUBLE, PICK 3, PICK 4, PICK 5, PICK 6. Each track across the country has some or many of these bets that can be placed depending on the race.
Doing your homework: A lot of homework can be done ahead of time to prepare for placing the bets you will make. As I mentioned before for those of you, especially starting out, you may prefer not to do any of this homework. You can buy tip sheets at the track and rely on someone else's opinions. You can decide whether you want to become a serious player or go to the track just to have some fun. It's up to you.
I hope this helps out the beginner to get started. Here are some links to past articles in my blog for further reading.
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/11/can-i-play-horses-over-internet_29.html
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/stay-on-top-of-your-handicapping.html
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2007/12/tote-picks.html
Monday, January 10, 2011
Going for the Big Payoff 10-cent Superfecta bet
Betting this kind of 10 cent superfecta requires some careful planning and analysis of a race. It may also require tracking the tote pick in a race. Here is an approach that keeps the expense of the bet at a reasonable cost (say, under $40). Using the tote pick also requires that you be able to place your bet under 2 minutes before the race starts. Here's where using the internet is helpful.
How might one go about constructing this bet? First, let's find a horse in the race to key on. A race where there are 10 or more horses and one of the horses is a heavy favorite might be a horse to key on. If this choice is not favorable then you might choose a tote pick to help out? Doing a tote analysis on a race before hand can give you a horse to key on in your bet. [Check out articles from my blog " http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2008/03/tote-analysis-of-mac-diarmida-handicap.html " and " http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html ".] Using a horse to key on reduces the cost of the bet significantly.
Secondly, How much are we willing to spend on the bet? Putting long shots into your bet will require your willingness to spend a little more on the bet.
Thirdly, how does one pick high odd horses to include in the bet? There has to be something that gives you an inkling that this horse might have a chance to come in 4th or better. Some of the things to consider might be the following. A particular trainer, or jockey, or jockey-trainer combo might trigger throwing in the horse to the superfecta bet. Don't leave out certain jockey-trainer combinations especially
when a high odd horse has a jockey-trainer combination that is just too good to pass up. Don't forget to look at certain jockeys (even Hall of Fame jockeys) who chose to ride a high odd horse (particularly if it happens to be a 1st time starter with a very good works). These are a few possibilities. There are many more that horse players might use.
Does the number of horses in the race matter? You bet it does. Races with 9,10,11,12,13, and 14 horses tend to have much larger payoff's. After all in these races it's not uncommon to have odds of 50/1 on a number of horses. When one or more of these horses come in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th the payoff can be very large.
Let's put together a sample bet to see what the costs might be. ("ALL" refers to include all the horses in the race.)
(Key Horse)/ALL/ALL/ALL This bet
with 6 horses in the race costs $6
with 7 horses in the race costs $12
with 8 horses in the race costs $21
with 9 horses in the race costs $33.60
with 10 horses in the race costs $50.40
With 10 horses the cost begins to get too expensive. To keep the cost reasonable (say, less than $40) you can put in the five top morning line choices (H1,H2,H3,H4,H5) in the place position. Another choice might be to use Twinspires top Profit Line picks.
(Key Horse)/H1,H2,H3,H4,H5/ALL/ALL This bet
with 10 horses in the race costs $28
with 11 horses in the race costs $36
(Key Horse)/H1,H2,H3,H4/ALL/ALL This bet with 12 horses in the race costs $36
Note that with 12 horses the place position only has the 4 top morning line choices.
Good luck and enjoy. 'til next time.
How might one go about constructing this bet? First, let's find a horse in the race to key on. A race where there are 10 or more horses and one of the horses is a heavy favorite might be a horse to key on. If this choice is not favorable then you might choose a tote pick to help out? Doing a tote analysis on a race before hand can give you a horse to key on in your bet. [Check out articles from my blog " http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2008/03/tote-analysis-of-mac-diarmida-handicap.html " and " http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html ".] Using a horse to key on reduces the cost of the bet significantly.
Secondly, How much are we willing to spend on the bet? Putting long shots into your bet will require your willingness to spend a little more on the bet.
Thirdly, how does one pick high odd horses to include in the bet? There has to be something that gives you an inkling that this horse might have a chance to come in 4th or better. Some of the things to consider might be the following. A particular trainer, or jockey, or jockey-trainer combo might trigger throwing in the horse to the superfecta bet. Don't leave out certain jockey-trainer combinations especially
when a high odd horse has a jockey-trainer combination that is just too good to pass up. Don't forget to look at certain jockeys (even Hall of Fame jockeys) who chose to ride a high odd horse (particularly if it happens to be a 1st time starter with a very good works). These are a few possibilities. There are many more that horse players might use.
Does the number of horses in the race matter? You bet it does. Races with 9,10,11,12,13, and 14 horses tend to have much larger payoff's. After all in these races it's not uncommon to have odds of 50/1 on a number of horses. When one or more of these horses come in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th the payoff can be very large.
Let's put together a sample bet to see what the costs might be. ("ALL" refers to include all the horses in the race.)
(Key Horse)/ALL/ALL/ALL This bet
with 6 horses in the race costs $6
with 7 horses in the race costs $12
with 8 horses in the race costs $21
with 9 horses in the race costs $33.60
with 10 horses in the race costs $50.40
With 10 horses the cost begins to get too expensive. To keep the cost reasonable (say, less than $40) you can put in the five top morning line choices (H1,H2,H3,H4,H5) in the place position. Another choice might be to use Twinspires top Profit Line picks.
(Key Horse)/H1,H2,H3,H4,H5/ALL/ALL This bet
with 10 horses in the race costs $28
with 11 horses in the race costs $36
(Key Horse)/H1,H2,H3,H4/ALL/ALL This bet with 12 horses in the race costs $36
Note that with 12 horses the place position only has the 4 top morning line choices.
Good luck and enjoy. 'til next time.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
The 50 cent Pick 4 and the 10 cent Superfecta
I have had a number of discussions with some of my friends that like to play the horses. Recently we have been discussing both the 10 cent superfecta as well as the 50 cent pick 4. They both are now available at many tracks across the country. (Churchill Downs, for example.) Why are we interested in these particular bets? For one thing, the payoffs for these bets is very attractive. The payoffs can range in the 100's, the 1000's, and sometimes even in the 10,000's. Secondly, the 10 cent superfecta can be bet with a much smaller bankroll. You get a much bigger bang for the buck with the lower cost.
In the past when $2 superfectas were only allowed you had to pay 20 times more for the same 10 cent superfecta bet you can make today. For example if you pay $6 for a 10 cent superfecta today that same $2 superfecta will cost you $120. This can be the difference between making the bet and not making the bet.
The other attractive bet is the 50 cent pick 4. Let's analyze the similarities and differences between the 10 cent superfecta and the 50 cent pick 4. The obvious similarity is that both bets involve four horses. However, this is where the similarity ends. The superfecta involves just one race where you have to get the order of finish correct; 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The pick 4 stretches over four races. In each race you have to select the winner.
Why choose one bet over the other?
The 50 cent pick 4 costs you one fourth of what the same $2 pick 4 would cost you. A $2 pick 4 that costs $120 you can now get with the same 50 cent pick 4 bet for $30. Usually, in any one day at one track you can only bet at most 2 pick 4's. At a track that offers 10 cent superfectas in each race you can bet 8, or 9, or 10 times depending on the number of races on the card for that track. An attractive feature of the superfecta is that after the race is over you know how you did. However, with the pick 4 you have to wait until all four races have finished (usually about 2 hours) to know how you did.
My fellow horseplayers and I differ on which bet we like the best. For those of us with the patience to wait a couple of hours, the pick 4 is very attractive. For those that like the action in each race the superfecta is very attractive. It really gets down to one's preference.
Some of us like to handicap and pick just winners and not venture any deeper into the race. The pick 4 is ideal for this approach. Some of us like to go deeper into a race and to speculate which horses will come in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. The superfecta is attractive for this kind of speculation.
No matter which bet you choose, both bets have very attractive potential payoffs. Both bets offer a real challenge to structure. Both bets are fun to play.
Good luck and keep it enjoyable.
In the past when $2 superfectas were only allowed you had to pay 20 times more for the same 10 cent superfecta bet you can make today. For example if you pay $6 for a 10 cent superfecta today that same $2 superfecta will cost you $120. This can be the difference between making the bet and not making the bet.
The other attractive bet is the 50 cent pick 4. Let's analyze the similarities and differences between the 10 cent superfecta and the 50 cent pick 4. The obvious similarity is that both bets involve four horses. However, this is where the similarity ends. The superfecta involves just one race where you have to get the order of finish correct; 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The pick 4 stretches over four races. In each race you have to select the winner.
Why choose one bet over the other?
The 50 cent pick 4 costs you one fourth of what the same $2 pick 4 would cost you. A $2 pick 4 that costs $120 you can now get with the same 50 cent pick 4 bet for $30. Usually, in any one day at one track you can only bet at most 2 pick 4's. At a track that offers 10 cent superfectas in each race you can bet 8, or 9, or 10 times depending on the number of races on the card for that track. An attractive feature of the superfecta is that after the race is over you know how you did. However, with the pick 4 you have to wait until all four races have finished (usually about 2 hours) to know how you did.
My fellow horseplayers and I differ on which bet we like the best. For those of us with the patience to wait a couple of hours, the pick 4 is very attractive. For those that like the action in each race the superfecta is very attractive. It really gets down to one's preference.
Some of us like to handicap and pick just winners and not venture any deeper into the race. The pick 4 is ideal for this approach. Some of us like to go deeper into a race and to speculate which horses will come in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. The superfecta is attractive for this kind of speculation.
No matter which bet you choose, both bets have very attractive potential payoffs. Both bets offer a real challenge to structure. Both bets are fun to play.
Good luck and keep it enjoyable.
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