I have had a number of discussions with some of my friends that like to play the horses. Recently we have been discussing both the 10 cent superfecta as well as the 50 cent pick 4. They both are now available at many tracks across the country. (Churchill Downs, for example.) Why are we interested in these particular bets? For one thing, the payoffs for these bets is very attractive. The payoffs can range in the 100's, the 1000's, and sometimes even in the 10,000's. Secondly, the 10 cent superfecta can be bet with a much smaller bankroll. You get a much bigger bang for the buck with the lower cost.
In the past when $2 superfectas were only allowed you had to pay 20 times more for the same 10 cent superfecta bet you can make today. For example if you pay $6 for a 10 cent superfecta today that same $2 superfecta will cost you $120. This can be the difference between making the bet and not making the bet.
The other attractive bet is the 50 cent pick 4. Let's analyze the similarities and differences between the 10 cent superfecta and the 50 cent pick 4. The obvious similarity is that both bets involve four horses. However, this is where the similarity ends. The superfecta involves just one race where you have to get the order of finish correct; 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th. The pick 4 stretches over four races. In each race you have to select the winner.
Why choose one bet over the other?
The 50 cent pick 4 costs you one fourth of what the same $2 pick 4 would cost you. A $2 pick 4 that costs $120 you can now get with the same 50 cent pick 4 bet for $30. Usually, in any one day at one track you can only bet at most 2 pick 4's. At a track that offers 10 cent superfectas in each race you can bet 8, or 9, or 10 times depending on the number of races on the card for that track. An attractive feature of the superfecta is that after the race is over you know how you did. However, with the pick 4 you have to wait until all four races have finished (usually about 2 hours) to know how you did.
My fellow horseplayers and I differ on which bet we like the best. For those of us with the patience to wait a couple of hours, the pick 4 is very attractive. For those that like the action in each race the superfecta is very attractive. It really gets down to one's preference.
Some of us like to handicap and pick just winners and not venture any deeper into the race. The pick 4 is ideal for this approach. Some of us like to go deeper into a race and to speculate which horses will come in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. The superfecta is attractive for this kind of speculation.
No matter which bet you choose, both bets have very attractive potential payoffs. Both bets offer a real challenge to structure. Both bets are fun to play.
Good luck and keep it enjoyable.
Tuesday, December 21, 2010
Friday, November 12, 2010
50 Cent Trifectas
What is a trifecta? A trifecta is a bet where you structure the bet so that you have the three horses that come in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. Why would you bet a trifecta? Well let's ask Bob. Bob likes trifectas because they pay good when you hit them. Bob reserves a portion of his bankroll to trifecta bets. Some times he even commits one day to just betting trifectas. Now why do you do that Bob? Recently a number of tracks across the country have introduced the 50 cent trifecta. In the not to distant past there were only $2 trifectas. Then tracks began to allow $1 trifectas.
Now there is the 50 cent trifecta at many tracks. Bob likes to look at the combinations that he can cover with a bet in the range he is comfortable with within his bankroll. Bob says let's look at a simple trifecta bet where three horses are boxed. Here are the combinations for three horses that are boxed.
123 132 213 231 312 321
Any one of these six results will win the trifecta. Bob wants to now look at the cost of this bet if it was a $2 trifecta bet. Since there are 6 possible combinations to win this bet it will cost 6 x $2 = $12. If it was a $1 trifecta bet then the cost would be 6 x $1 = $6. A 50 cent trifecta would therefore cost 6 x $.50 = $3. Bob looks at this 50 cent trifecta as a way to get more combinations working for him in his bet than ever before.
Okay Bob what would it cost to box 4 horses? A $2 trifecta box of 4 horses would cost (4 x 3 x 2 x 1) x $2 = $48. A $1 trifecta box of 4 would cost $48 / 2 = $24. A 50 cent trifecta box would cost $24 / 2 = $12. As Bob sees it he can get 48 combinations that could win for $12 with a 50 cent trifecta box. With a $2 trifecta box that cost $12 he would get only 6 combinations that could win. Sure the 50 cent payoff would only be 1/4 of the payoff for a $2 trifecta but Bob says he can make 4 times as many bets. He likes this. The probability of winning with 48 combinations is much better than with just 6.
One of Bob's favorite trifecta bets is when he can find a race with two heavy favorites on the toteboard. Let's say that this race that Bob locates has 10 horses in the race. The trifecta structure that Bob likes is 1,2/ALL/1,2. A 50 cent trifecta with this structure will cost 2 x 8 x 1 x .50 = $8. As a hedge Bob would also bet 1,2/1,2/ALL which will cost $8 also. So for two bets that Bob buys for $16 he would be getting 32 possible winning combinations for his $16.
Bob likes the possibilities he gets with the 50 cent trifecta.
Good luck.
'til next time.
Now there is the 50 cent trifecta at many tracks. Bob likes to look at the combinations that he can cover with a bet in the range he is comfortable with within his bankroll. Bob says let's look at a simple trifecta bet where three horses are boxed. Here are the combinations for three horses that are boxed.
123 132 213 231 312 321
Any one of these six results will win the trifecta. Bob wants to now look at the cost of this bet if it was a $2 trifecta bet. Since there are 6 possible combinations to win this bet it will cost 6 x $2 = $12. If it was a $1 trifecta bet then the cost would be 6 x $1 = $6. A 50 cent trifecta would therefore cost 6 x $.50 = $3. Bob looks at this 50 cent trifecta as a way to get more combinations working for him in his bet than ever before.
Okay Bob what would it cost to box 4 horses? A $2 trifecta box of 4 horses would cost (4 x 3 x 2 x 1) x $2 = $48. A $1 trifecta box of 4 would cost $48 / 2 = $24. A 50 cent trifecta box would cost $24 / 2 = $12. As Bob sees it he can get 48 combinations that could win for $12 with a 50 cent trifecta box. With a $2 trifecta box that cost $12 he would get only 6 combinations that could win. Sure the 50 cent payoff would only be 1/4 of the payoff for a $2 trifecta but Bob says he can make 4 times as many bets. He likes this. The probability of winning with 48 combinations is much better than with just 6.
One of Bob's favorite trifecta bets is when he can find a race with two heavy favorites on the toteboard. Let's say that this race that Bob locates has 10 horses in the race. The trifecta structure that Bob likes is 1,2/ALL/1,2. A 50 cent trifecta with this structure will cost 2 x 8 x 1 x .50 = $8. As a hedge Bob would also bet 1,2/1,2/ALL which will cost $8 also. So for two bets that Bob buys for $16 he would be getting 32 possible winning combinations for his $16.
Bob likes the possibilities he gets with the 50 cent trifecta.
Good luck.
'til next time.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Handicapping versus Betting Strategies
Handicapping is about finding the horse or horses that could win. Betting strategies are about configuring a bet to include enough combinations to win the bet. Let me give you some examples. I'll talk about Bob in these examples.
Bob brings up on his computer the past performances (PP's) for a race he wants to handicap. He looks to see the type of race and the length of the race. He then looks through all of the horses in the race. Bob likes to keep track of the hot jockey/trainer winning combinations at this track. He especially looks to see if any of these attractive combinations are in this race. Bob then looks at each horse in the race and carefully studies the PP's of each horse. Bob likes to go through and eliminate all the horses he thinks have no chance or at very little chance of winning this race. Bob is trying to determine just how many horses are solid winning candidates in the race. Bob would like to narrow his list down to as few horses as possible. Ideally it would be nice to single just one horse. In most races he knows that this is impossible. He can usually narrow his list down to 2, 3, or 4 horses. If there are more than that Bob has no trouble in deciding to just not bet this race. Bob knows that unrealistic bad bets can reduce his bankroll. He knows that Minimizing his losses contributes to a higher ROI at the end of the day.
Now let's see how Bob handles his betting strategies. Bob has favorite kinds of bets that he is most confident in making. If he can single a horse in a race, especially if it's not the favorite, he likes to place a win bet. Sometimes it is a sizable bet. As a hedge, Bob will quite often place a 'win-place' bet on this horse. Bob is aware that this situation is very infrequent. So Bob looks to other kinds of bets that he likes. Bob also likes exactas. He is fond of finding 2, 3, or 4 horses in his handicapping where these horses he expects to dominate the race. Infact he feels confident that anyone of these horses could win or place. When Bob finds just two horses he will box those two horses in an exacta. Depending on his confidence level, he will measure the size of his bet. For three or four horses he would box them in an exacta also. Bob is always mindful of his bankroll balance.
I hope that these examples give you an idea of the differences between handicapping and betting strategies. Also I hope you see how the two are connected and depend on each other.
I will follow up later in this blog to explain how Bob may make other bets he likes such as trifectas, superfectas, doubles, pick 3's, pick 4's. I will show you how Bob can combine his handicapping skills with thoughtful betting strategies.
Good luck and have fun playing the ponies.
'til next time.
Bob brings up on his computer the past performances (PP's) for a race he wants to handicap. He looks to see the type of race and the length of the race. He then looks through all of the horses in the race. Bob likes to keep track of the hot jockey/trainer winning combinations at this track. He especially looks to see if any of these attractive combinations are in this race. Bob then looks at each horse in the race and carefully studies the PP's of each horse. Bob likes to go through and eliminate all the horses he thinks have no chance or at very little chance of winning this race. Bob is trying to determine just how many horses are solid winning candidates in the race. Bob would like to narrow his list down to as few horses as possible. Ideally it would be nice to single just one horse. In most races he knows that this is impossible. He can usually narrow his list down to 2, 3, or 4 horses. If there are more than that Bob has no trouble in deciding to just not bet this race. Bob knows that unrealistic bad bets can reduce his bankroll. He knows that Minimizing his losses contributes to a higher ROI at the end of the day.
Now let's see how Bob handles his betting strategies. Bob has favorite kinds of bets that he is most confident in making. If he can single a horse in a race, especially if it's not the favorite, he likes to place a win bet. Sometimes it is a sizable bet. As a hedge, Bob will quite often place a 'win-place' bet on this horse. Bob is aware that this situation is very infrequent. So Bob looks to other kinds of bets that he likes. Bob also likes exactas. He is fond of finding 2, 3, or 4 horses in his handicapping where these horses he expects to dominate the race. Infact he feels confident that anyone of these horses could win or place. When Bob finds just two horses he will box those two horses in an exacta. Depending on his confidence level, he will measure the size of his bet. For three or four horses he would box them in an exacta also. Bob is always mindful of his bankroll balance.
I hope that these examples give you an idea of the differences between handicapping and betting strategies. Also I hope you see how the two are connected and depend on each other.
I will follow up later in this blog to explain how Bob may make other bets he likes such as trifectas, superfectas, doubles, pick 3's, pick 4's. I will show you how Bob can combine his handicapping skills with thoughtful betting strategies.
Good luck and have fun playing the ponies.
'til next time.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Free Horse Handicapping Contests
Recently I was with a few of my retired friends and they were asking me if there was a way they could get some experience playing the horses without losing a lot of money. I asked them if they had an internet account and were familiar with using the web. Most were, so I went on to tell them about some of the free horse handicapping contests that you can join and play to hone your skills.
There is a contest that you can play for free each day. All you have to do is sign up for a free account with Brisnet and play along each day. Just log in tohttp://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/daily-contest/index.cgi and click on "FREE Contest Registration". Follow the instructions to set up your free account. You're then ready to play "Race of the Day" each day. Brisnet keeps tab of your record and gives you one point each day just for playing. If you are in the top 50 of winning picks for the week you get a bonus of 50 extra points applied to your account for that week. Twice a year they have a drawing and you have a chance to go to the Kentucky Derby in May or to the Breeders Cup in October with all expenses paid for two.
If you only have time to play in a contest on weekends then there's a web site that you can join for free that lets you make your selections for four races each weekend. Just go to http://www.publichandicapper.com/ and click on "sign up to play for free here". You will get an email from the Public Handicapper folks each Thursday telling you what races you will be playing on Saturday. You can then use your favorite handicapping tools to make your three selections in each of the four races. Why three selections? Because if your top choice gets scratched then you have a second choice. If the top two get scratched (an unlikely event) then your pick is your third choice. They keep score for you and you can check at any time to see where you are in the standings. There are prizes at the end. It's a lot of fun and if your hit the winning horse in each race you get recognition as well as some free Past Performances for a period of time.
There is another web site that you can join, http://www.equibase.com/index.cfm, that has free contests at various times during the year. Go to "Equibase Virtual Stable" and click on "Register Now". It's free to set up an account. If you are registered then whenever Equibase has a contest they will send you an email so you can participate. The contest is for one track on a particular day, usually a Saturday, and you make a win and place bet on one horse in each race. There are cash prizes for the largest accumulated bankroll. It's fun and they keep score for you.
These contests are FREE so get started and have some fun. Good luck.
There is a contest that you can play for free each day. All you have to do is sign up for a free account with Brisnet and play along each day. Just log in tohttp://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/daily-contest/index.cgi and click on "FREE Contest Registration". Follow the instructions to set up your free account. You're then ready to play "Race of the Day" each day. Brisnet keeps tab of your record and gives you one point each day just for playing. If you are in the top 50 of winning picks for the week you get a bonus of 50 extra points applied to your account for that week. Twice a year they have a drawing and you have a chance to go to the Kentucky Derby in May or to the Breeders Cup in October with all expenses paid for two.
If you only have time to play in a contest on weekends then there's a web site that you can join for free that lets you make your selections for four races each weekend. Just go to http://www.publichandicapper.com/ and click on "sign up to play for free here". You will get an email from the Public Handicapper folks each Thursday telling you what races you will be playing on Saturday. You can then use your favorite handicapping tools to make your three selections in each of the four races. Why three selections? Because if your top choice gets scratched then you have a second choice. If the top two get scratched (an unlikely event) then your pick is your third choice. They keep score for you and you can check at any time to see where you are in the standings. There are prizes at the end. It's a lot of fun and if your hit the winning horse in each race you get recognition as well as some free Past Performances for a period of time.
There is another web site that you can join, http://www.equibase.com/index.cfm, that has free contests at various times during the year. Go to "Equibase Virtual Stable" and click on "Register Now". It's free to set up an account. If you are registered then whenever Equibase has a contest they will send you an email so you can participate. The contest is for one track on a particular day, usually a Saturday, and you make a win and place bet on one horse in each race. There are cash prizes for the largest accumulated bankroll. It's fun and they keep score for you.
These contests are FREE so get started and have some fun. Good luck.
Monday, July 26, 2010
Betting Strategies
Fifty years ago when I first started betting on the horses, the win, place and show bets were about the only choices you had. If you wanted to bet you had to go to the race track to do it. At that time the computer wasn't used to determine the payouts. It was done manually at the track.
As the years passed and the computer started to be used to determine the payouts the exacta and the quinella were introduced. Then came a new stream of what became known as exotic bets. The trifecta, superfecta, rolling doubles, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, and pick 6 all became popular.
In 1993 the internet opened up betting from a personal computer. As the race tracks one by one began to allow betting from all over the country through simulcast betting at the home track, it then became possible to bet from your computer at home. Youbet, Expressbet, TVG, Twinspires (and others) were internet websites that allowed betting at most tracks around the world.
The process of betting now becomes quite complex. You have so many choices that you must resolve where, when and how much you're going to bet. Here is where betting strategies come into play. I remember as a kid going into a candy store and there were so many choices that with the dime I had to spend I had to decide which were my favorite candies and how much to spend on each. That's the situation that one is faced with today with horse betting. You have a bankroll that determines how much you have to wager with. If you bet exotics you must calculate and know for a particular bet what the cost will be. Your choice of bets, their cost, how the bets fit into your bankroll and how many of your bets have positive payouts will determine your success or failure. There is an old track saying "you can't win them all but you can lose them all". Let's summarize with some betting strategies.
Betting Strategy #1:
Determine the track and the race you're going to bet on.
Betting Strategy #2:
Determine the kind of bet that you are going to place and figure out what it will cost.
Betting Strategy #3:
Keep track of the running balance in your bankroll. Never exceed your bankroll if losses accumulate. Don't bet money that you can't afford to lose.
Betting Strategy #4:
Use discipline in the bets you make. Know when to "fold'um" if you hit a losing streak. Be able to accept your loses and never "double down".
May luck be with you.
As the years passed and the computer started to be used to determine the payouts the exacta and the quinella were introduced. Then came a new stream of what became known as exotic bets. The trifecta, superfecta, rolling doubles, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, and pick 6 all became popular.
In 1993 the internet opened up betting from a personal computer. As the race tracks one by one began to allow betting from all over the country through simulcast betting at the home track, it then became possible to bet from your computer at home. Youbet, Expressbet, TVG, Twinspires (and others) were internet websites that allowed betting at most tracks around the world.
The process of betting now becomes quite complex. You have so many choices that you must resolve where, when and how much you're going to bet. Here is where betting strategies come into play. I remember as a kid going into a candy store and there were so many choices that with the dime I had to spend I had to decide which were my favorite candies and how much to spend on each. That's the situation that one is faced with today with horse betting. You have a bankroll that determines how much you have to wager with. If you bet exotics you must calculate and know for a particular bet what the cost will be. Your choice of bets, their cost, how the bets fit into your bankroll and how many of your bets have positive payouts will determine your success or failure. There is an old track saying "you can't win them all but you can lose them all". Let's summarize with some betting strategies.
Betting Strategy #1:
Determine the track and the race you're going to bet on.
Betting Strategy #2:
Determine the kind of bet that you are going to place and figure out what it will cost.
Betting Strategy #3:
Keep track of the running balance in your bankroll. Never exceed your bankroll if losses accumulate. Don't bet money that you can't afford to lose.
Betting Strategy #4:
Use discipline in the bets you make. Know when to "fold'um" if you hit a losing streak. Be able to accept your loses and never "double down".
May luck be with you.
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Approaches To Betting the 10-Cent Superfecta
Most horse bettors have their own way of making personal choices when they determine how they will place a bet. With the internet there are dozens of ways to get the support information you need to make your choices. There is Equibase, Brisnet, Twinspires, Youbet and many, many others. I won't get into which ones to use (I'll leave that up to you), but merely say that each horse bettor has his own personal way to get to his choices.
Let's approach the 10-cent superfecta bet with three top choices: 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice. Next there is the 'confidence level' you have in your three choices for a particular race.
For a high level of confidence one approach to a 10-cent superfecta bet might be 1/2,3/ALL/ALL.
For a medium level of confidence the bet might be
1,2,3/1,2,3/ALL/ALL.
For a low level of confidence the bet might be
1,2,3/ALL/1,2,3/ALL.
Then there is the Black Swan bet
ALL/ALL/1,2,3/1,2,3.
The other consideration to take into account is the size of your bankroll. Depending on you tolerance level you may bet several of these.
May luck be with you. There's nothing to compare to good luck.
Let's approach the 10-cent superfecta bet with three top choices: 1st choice, 2nd choice, 3rd choice. Next there is the 'confidence level' you have in your three choices for a particular race.
For a high level of confidence one approach to a 10-cent superfecta bet might be 1/2,3/ALL/ALL.
For a medium level of confidence the bet might be
1,2,3/1,2,3/ALL/ALL.
For a low level of confidence the bet might be
1,2,3/ALL/1,2,3/ALL.
Then there is the Black Swan bet
ALL/ALL/1,2,3/1,2,3.
The other consideration to take into account is the size of your bankroll. Depending on you tolerance level you may bet several of these.
May luck be with you. There's nothing to compare to good luck.
Friday, April 2, 2010
Side-by-side Betting with Ten Cent Superfectas
The payoffs for ten cent superfectas can be huge. In side-by-side betting with ten cent superfectas the wager is constructed as follows: assume that the horse you are keying on is the #7 horse then the bet would be 6,7,8/6,7,8/ALL/ALL. At Remington Park during the quarter horse meet there is a maximum of 10 horses in any race. The cost of the bet is dependent on the number of horses in the race.
7 horses $12
8 horses $18
9 horses $25.20
10 horses $33.60
This size bet can be handled by a modest size bank rolls so the risk-reward is well worth it.
Let's look at some results from last weekend.
March 26
Race 1 G R Carter on #5 - result 4,5 payout $469.83 cost $33.60
Race 2 G R Carter on #5 - result 4,5 payout $183.74 cost $33.60
Race 6 G R Carter on #4 - result 4,5 payout $190.31 cost $25.20
March 27
Race 1 G R Carter on #6 - result 6,7 10 cent super $173.18 cost $33.60
Race 7 Larry Payne on #2 horse - result 3,2 payout $216.77 cost $33.60
To check these results go to http://equibase.com
7 horses $12
8 horses $18
9 horses $25.20
10 horses $33.60
This size bet can be handled by a modest size bank rolls so the risk-reward is well worth it.
Let's look at some results from last weekend.
March 26
Race 1 G R Carter on #5 - result 4,5 payout $469.83 cost $33.60
Race 2 G R Carter on #5 - result 4,5 payout $183.74 cost $33.60
Race 6 G R Carter on #4 - result 4,5 payout $190.31 cost $25.20
March 27
Race 1 G R Carter on #6 - result 6,7 10 cent super $173.18 cost $33.60
Race 7 Larry Payne on #2 horse - result 3,2 payout $216.77 cost $33.60
To check these results go to http://equibase.com
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