I have been running two polls since last May 2008. One poll was about the 'Trifecta Cost' and the other was about 'Trifecta Success'. I had a total of 28 respondents. Thank you for those of you who visit my site for your responses.
Here are the results of those polls.
When you bet trifectas, what is the average cost of your bet?
$6 or less ............................. 32%
$12 but more than $6 ......... 32%
$24 but more than $12 ........ 26%
$48 but more than $24 ........ 0%
more than $48 ................ 11%
What is your success with trifecta bets?
Over 100% net gain ........... 0%
50% to 100% net gain ......... 22%
0 to 50% net gain ............ 44%
negative net gain ............ 33%
It is interesting to note that 89% of the respondents bet less than $25 when they place a trifecta bet. That represents most of you out there. However, 11% of you bet over $48. (This may be those of you who follow TVG and place there suggested bets.) Unfortunately, I don't have coordinated data to know how many of those 11% collect on their bets and what is there net return. Looking at Golden Gates recent statistics the average payoff for trifectas is $288. If you win at least 25% of the time with your $50+ bets you may be making some money.
Looking at the Trifecta Success poll the respondents say that 2/3's of the time they are scoring a net gain. 22% say their net gain is between 50 and 100%. 44% say their net gain is between 0 and 50%. 1/3 of you say your losing money on the bet.
I hope that this sheds some light on your chances with the trifecta bet. Good luck with your bets.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Pick 3 Poll Results
As you have probably noticed for those of you visiting my blog on a regular basis over the last two months that I have had a poll about the pick 3 bet. The poll turned out as follows.
Poll: What is your success with Pick 3's?
over 100% net gain ..... 0%
50 - 100% net gain ..... 11%
0 - 50% net gain .......... 33%
negative net gain ......... 56%
It is apparent from this poll that the pick 3 is a losing bet over 1/2 the time for my poll participants. This is disappointing to me but I can understand why.
I have played the pick 3 quite a bit and the big mistake that can be made is using 'bet combinations' that are too small to have much of a chance of winning. If you have access to TVG you can get an idea of the cost of a pick 3 that needs to be made to have a good chance of winning. The analysts on TVG who share their picks with you hardly ever have a pick 3 selection under $18.
Some rough calculations of mine based on my own experience reveals that on the average (assuming $1 pick 3's that have won):
Combinations that cost Win %
less than $18 ....................8%
$18 to $27 ........................20%
$27 to $42........................ 32%
greater than $42............. 40%
You can see that to be successsful with pick 3's that you need pick 3 combinations that cost over $18. The payoffs for pick 3's can be large at times when you put long shots in your combination. To do this, however, you need to invest enough money in your bet to raise the probablility of your winning.
If you do not want to risk larger amounts of money with your pick 3 bets then it may well be best not to wager these bets.
Poll: What is your success with Pick 3's?
over 100% net gain ..... 0%
50 - 100% net gain ..... 11%
0 - 50% net gain .......... 33%
negative net gain ......... 56%
It is apparent from this poll that the pick 3 is a losing bet over 1/2 the time for my poll participants. This is disappointing to me but I can understand why.
I have played the pick 3 quite a bit and the big mistake that can be made is using 'bet combinations' that are too small to have much of a chance of winning. If you have access to TVG you can get an idea of the cost of a pick 3 that needs to be made to have a good chance of winning. The analysts on TVG who share their picks with you hardly ever have a pick 3 selection under $18.
Some rough calculations of mine based on my own experience reveals that on the average (assuming $1 pick 3's that have won):
Combinations that cost Win %
less than $18 ....................8%
$18 to $27 ........................20%
$27 to $42........................ 32%
greater than $42............. 40%
You can see that to be successsful with pick 3's that you need pick 3 combinations that cost over $18. The payoffs for pick 3's can be large at times when you put long shots in your combination. To do this, however, you need to invest enough money in your bet to raise the probablility of your winning.
If you do not want to risk larger amounts of money with your pick 3 bets then it may well be best not to wager these bets.
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
10 Cent Superfecta Poll Results
My 10 Cent Superfecta Poll has been on my blog for a couple of months now and the final results are now in.
What is your success with the 10 cent superfectas?
Over 100% net gain 7%
50 to 100% net gain 13%
0 to 50% net gain 40%
negative net gain 40%
Total 100%
The results are very encouraging to me. 20% of the horseplayers participating in my poll are getting a net gain of 50% or more. 60% of those using the 10 cent superfecta are making money on the bet. It's the small time bettor that is using this bet (the high rollers use $2 superfectas that can run into hundreds and thousands of dollars) and it certainly seems from the poll results that 60% have found a way to make some money.
I have a new poll that will run for a couple of months. What is your success with the Pick 3?
See the side panel on my blog. Let me know how you are doing with your pick 3's.
Thanks to all who have participated.
What is your success with the 10 cent superfectas?
Over 100% net gain 7%
50 to 100% net gain 13%
0 to 50% net gain 40%
negative net gain 40%
Total 100%
The results are very encouraging to me. 20% of the horseplayers participating in my poll are getting a net gain of 50% or more. 60% of those using the 10 cent superfecta are making money on the bet. It's the small time bettor that is using this bet (the high rollers use $2 superfectas that can run into hundreds and thousands of dollars) and it certainly seems from the poll results that 60% have found a way to make some money.
I have a new poll that will run for a couple of months. What is your success with the Pick 3?
See the side panel on my blog. Let me know how you are doing with your pick 3's.
Thanks to all who have participated.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Conditional Betting
What is conditional betting? Recently Twinspires offers the capability of making conditional bets. These are bets that are only executed if the condition you specify is satisfied. Why would you want to make a conditional bet? Some horse players already watch the toteboard to see if certain conditions are met before they place a bet. This is a rather intensive activity that can play upon your emotions. Many times not a good situation to be in. Also waiting to right before the race starts, 1 or 2 minutes before, you may not be able to get to a window at the track to place the bet. Rather than having to watch the toteboard constantly you can enter the conditional bet and not even be where the toteboard is available to you. You can be at home and enter the bet over the internet. Then you can check later and see what the result is.
So what does a conditional bet look like? Here is an example.
Race #3 07/01/2008
Philadelphia
$20.00 Win (6/5 @ 2mtp)
#4
$20.00
In race #3 on the 1st of July at Philadelphia Park I entered a $20 win bet on the #4 horse with the condition that the tote must be 6/5 or lower with 2 minutes to post. If that condition was satisfied then the bet was entered and executed.
Right now you can place conditional bets on win, place and show bets and exactas. The restriction on exactas is that the bet is a simple exacta bet like horse A with horse B. No boxes or key exactas can be conditional. This doesn't keep you from making multiple simple exactas however. That's a little laborious to do but it can be done if you have the patience.
I am experimenting with strategies that include conditional betting. I'll report back to you later on how well the strategies work.
Stay tuned.
So what does a conditional bet look like? Here is an example.
Race #3 07/01/2008
Philadelphia
$20.00 Win (6/5 @ 2mtp)
#4
$20.00
In race #3 on the 1st of July at Philadelphia Park I entered a $20 win bet on the #4 horse with the condition that the tote must be 6/5 or lower with 2 minutes to post. If that condition was satisfied then the bet was entered and executed.
Right now you can place conditional bets on win, place and show bets and exactas. The restriction on exactas is that the bet is a simple exacta bet like horse A with horse B. No boxes or key exactas can be conditional. This doesn't keep you from making multiple simple exactas however. That's a little laborious to do but it can be done if you have the patience.
I am experimenting with strategies that include conditional betting. I'll report back to you later on how well the strategies work.
Stay tuned.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Pick 3 Aberrations
As you know from my previous blog I have been testing new strategies using the pick 3. In this article I want to show you two extreme aberrations that have occurred in the course of a week; the Belmont Stakes on June 7th and high profile races at Churchill Downs on June 14th. Since writing my last blog "Pick 3 Research" I have been concentrating on pick 3 strategies that locate races where the favorite has a high probablility of winning. A race that had one of the highest probabilities of winning was the Belmont Stakes. Big Brown was a certain winner if there ever was one. (I was not alone in this assessment.) It was almost certain until the race was run. Probabilities are just probabilities, no matter how high they are and nothing more. Anything can happen in a race and it did.
As a strategy that I was testing on June 7th I chose to arrange three pick 3 bets using Big Brown to win in the 11th race. The first pick 3 started in race 9, the second started in the 10th, and the third started in the 11th race. Here is a case where all three bets lost with Big Brown losing in the 11th. What is the lesson to be learned from this. The outcome in one race can affect several other bets. Betting across races can be very costly even with smaller amounts of money. Also you have to wait until the races in the bet are completed to know whether you have a winning ticket. Betting within a race has more immediate gratification. This experience has given me insight into aberrations that can occur in strategies that sometimes are overlooked.
On June 14th, a week later, I experienced a new and highly improbable aberration at Churchill Downs. I saw before my eyes 6 morning line favorites win 6 consecutive races. These races also happened to be the 6 races in the pick 6. The probability of this happening is very very small. Starting with the 6th race there were 4 consecutive pick 3's that had 3 favorites in the outcome. The probability of this happening is .03.
Let me summarize the results for both weekends. On Belmont Stakes day there was no ticket that hit the pick 6. It carried over to the following Wednesday. The horseplaying public could not visualize Big Brown losing. (That included me!) However, there were some pick 3 and pick 4 players who won on the pick 3 starting in the 9th race, $6,475.00, and $34,287.00 on the pick 4 that started in the 8th race. Because of the cost factor being lower there were long shots (infact, the longest on the board) included in the pick 3 and pick 4 combinations for race 11. On June 14th at Churchill Downs the morning line favorites Hystericalady, Pure Clan, Pyro, Tizdejavu, Curlin, and Dreaming of Anna were the winning picks in the pick 6 which paid $48.00. The $2 pick 3's starting with race 6 paid $14.60, 47.00, 31.80, 19.40 respectively.
What a difference a week makes in the extremes of horse racing. Stay tuned for results of my research.
'til then.
As a strategy that I was testing on June 7th I chose to arrange three pick 3 bets using Big Brown to win in the 11th race. The first pick 3 started in race 9, the second started in the 10th, and the third started in the 11th race. Here is a case where all three bets lost with Big Brown losing in the 11th. What is the lesson to be learned from this. The outcome in one race can affect several other bets. Betting across races can be very costly even with smaller amounts of money. Also you have to wait until the races in the bet are completed to know whether you have a winning ticket. Betting within a race has more immediate gratification. This experience has given me insight into aberrations that can occur in strategies that sometimes are overlooked.
On June 14th, a week later, I experienced a new and highly improbable aberration at Churchill Downs. I saw before my eyes 6 morning line favorites win 6 consecutive races. These races also happened to be the 6 races in the pick 6. The probability of this happening is very very small. Starting with the 6th race there were 4 consecutive pick 3's that had 3 favorites in the outcome. The probability of this happening is .03.
Let me summarize the results for both weekends. On Belmont Stakes day there was no ticket that hit the pick 6. It carried over to the following Wednesday. The horseplaying public could not visualize Big Brown losing. (That included me!) However, there were some pick 3 and pick 4 players who won on the pick 3 starting in the 9th race, $6,475.00, and $34,287.00 on the pick 4 that started in the 8th race. Because of the cost factor being lower there were long shots (infact, the longest on the board) included in the pick 3 and pick 4 combinations for race 11. On June 14th at Churchill Downs the morning line favorites Hystericalady, Pure Clan, Pyro, Tizdejavu, Curlin, and Dreaming of Anna were the winning picks in the pick 6 which paid $48.00. The $2 pick 3's starting with race 6 paid $14.60, 47.00, 31.80, 19.40 respectively.
What a difference a week makes in the extremes of horse racing. Stay tuned for results of my research.
'til then.
Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Pick 3 Research
Thanks to a comment I received on my blog from a reader, I was pointed to an article (http://www.econ.washington.edu/user/ellis/econ482/horse1105.pdf) on research about the pick 3. The article was couched in some mathematical statistics but has revealed some interesting results that may prove to be quite useful in developing some betting strategies. I am in the process of using these results in some experiments to see their usefulness. I will report to you at a later time about what I have found out.
Here are the obvious points that sparked my interest from this article. First, when you look at a pick 3 you are looking for the horses that will win in three consecutive races. Further, you focus in on whether the favorite in the race will win. It is well known that the favorite in a race will win about 30% (+-3%) of the time at any track in the country. Concentrating on the pick 3 you wonder how many pick 3's will have 0 favorites in the final outcome. How many will have 1 favorite in the final outcome. How many will have 2 favorites when the races are finished. How many will have 3 favorites in the final outcome. This article gives us some statistical evidence about what to expect.
An empirical analysis at Santa Anita by the author showed that out of 176 wagering opportunities that a pick 3 with no (0) winning favorites in the outcome occurred 36% of the time. With 1 favorite in the outcome, this occurred 42% of the time. With 2 favorites in the outcome, this occurred 19% of the time. With all three favorites in the outcome, this occurred just 3% of the time. What does this suggest? Don't depend on the favorite in your pick 3's. If you do include the favorite expect only one favorite in the outcome. 78% of the time there will be only 1 favorite or no favorites at all in the outcome. It takes guts to follow these results because the betting public tends to always include the favorites in their choice of pick 3 combinations. This therefore raises the cost of the bet when the cost does not match the benefit.
I will be looking at some strategies that take into account these statistical results.
Stay tuned ... I'll report back to you later.
Here are the obvious points that sparked my interest from this article. First, when you look at a pick 3 you are looking for the horses that will win in three consecutive races. Further, you focus in on whether the favorite in the race will win. It is well known that the favorite in a race will win about 30% (+-3%) of the time at any track in the country. Concentrating on the pick 3 you wonder how many pick 3's will have 0 favorites in the final outcome. How many will have 1 favorite in the final outcome. How many will have 2 favorites when the races are finished. How many will have 3 favorites in the final outcome. This article gives us some statistical evidence about what to expect.
An empirical analysis at Santa Anita by the author showed that out of 176 wagering opportunities that a pick 3 with no (0) winning favorites in the outcome occurred 36% of the time. With 1 favorite in the outcome, this occurred 42% of the time. With 2 favorites in the outcome, this occurred 19% of the time. With all three favorites in the outcome, this occurred just 3% of the time. What does this suggest? Don't depend on the favorite in your pick 3's. If you do include the favorite expect only one favorite in the outcome. 78% of the time there will be only 1 favorite or no favorites at all in the outcome. It takes guts to follow these results because the betting public tends to always include the favorites in their choice of pick 3 combinations. This therefore raises the cost of the bet when the cost does not match the benefit.
I will be looking at some strategies that take into account these statistical results.
Stay tuned ... I'll report back to you later.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
Bets Within a Race and Bets Across Races
When you bet an exacta, quinella, trifecta, or superfecta your bet is completed when the race is over. These bets are within a race. When you bet a daily double, a pick three, a pick four, or a pick six your bet is completed when the last race in the bet has finished. The strategies for these two kinds of bets are quite different. The principle of "bets within a race" is to pick the best 2,3,4,5 or 6 horses in a race. The principle of "bets across races" is to pick the possible winners in each race.
Let's start with "bets within a race" first. For an exacta and a quinella to pay off you need to concentrate on the horses that you feel can come in first or second. Let's suppose that there are 10 horses in a race. You get your Daily Racing Form and start studying the 10 horses in the race. After considerable deliberation you come to the conclusion that there are only two horses in this race that you believe can win or place. With this belief your bet is easy and inexpensive. You can do an exacta box of these two horses ( a quinella if this bet is allowed in this race at this track). If however, you come to the conclusion that out of the ten horses in the race that 5 of them are capable of winning or placing then you have a bit more to consider. You can place an $1 exacta box of these five horses but it will be a bit more expensive, $20 to be exact. I want to illustrate here that two factors that are all important. One is the cost of the bet and the other is how badly you want to win the bet. Using similar logic for a trifecta, or a superfecta it always gets down to cost and your desire to win. To increase your probability of winning it will cost more for the bet. How much you will spend depends how big your bankroll is and how much you are willing to spend on any one bet. The best thing you can do is to understand your tolerance level.
Bets across races need a different strategy. These kind of bets depend only on the horse that wins the race in each race of the bet. You can start with "singles". A "single" is using only one horse in a race. You need to be very confident in your belief that this horse will win the race. Big Brown in the Preakness was a good example. The other races where you need 2, 3, 4 or more horses for that race is where the cost of the bet goes up. Daily doubles, pick 3's, pick 4's can be more attractive to the horseplayer with a modest bankroll. Magna 5's and pick 6's are bets where you need a significant amount of money to have a good chance of winning. Twinspires had a pool for the pick 6 on Derby Day that you could get in on for as little as $10. You could even bet as much as $1000 which was the limit. Some of the pick 6 bets in the pool were $50000 +. To show you how difficult the pick 6 is, on Derby Day there were no tickets that got 6 out of 6. The total pool was $75000 +. Fortunately, in the pool there were several superfecta bets on the Kentucky Derby. Two of them paid almost $30000 each. If you were in the pool even though the pool didn't win the pick 6, the superfectas earned back enough to almost break even. A very nice strategy in the pool.
'til next time.
Let's start with "bets within a race" first. For an exacta and a quinella to pay off you need to concentrate on the horses that you feel can come in first or second. Let's suppose that there are 10 horses in a race. You get your Daily Racing Form and start studying the 10 horses in the race. After considerable deliberation you come to the conclusion that there are only two horses in this race that you believe can win or place. With this belief your bet is easy and inexpensive. You can do an exacta box of these two horses ( a quinella if this bet is allowed in this race at this track). If however, you come to the conclusion that out of the ten horses in the race that 5 of them are capable of winning or placing then you have a bit more to consider. You can place an $1 exacta box of these five horses but it will be a bit more expensive, $20 to be exact. I want to illustrate here that two factors that are all important. One is the cost of the bet and the other is how badly you want to win the bet. Using similar logic for a trifecta, or a superfecta it always gets down to cost and your desire to win. To increase your probability of winning it will cost more for the bet. How much you will spend depends how big your bankroll is and how much you are willing to spend on any one bet. The best thing you can do is to understand your tolerance level.
Bets across races need a different strategy. These kind of bets depend only on the horse that wins the race in each race of the bet. You can start with "singles". A "single" is using only one horse in a race. You need to be very confident in your belief that this horse will win the race. Big Brown in the Preakness was a good example. The other races where you need 2, 3, 4 or more horses for that race is where the cost of the bet goes up. Daily doubles, pick 3's, pick 4's can be more attractive to the horseplayer with a modest bankroll. Magna 5's and pick 6's are bets where you need a significant amount of money to have a good chance of winning. Twinspires had a pool for the pick 6 on Derby Day that you could get in on for as little as $10. You could even bet as much as $1000 which was the limit. Some of the pick 6 bets in the pool were $50000 +. To show you how difficult the pick 6 is, on Derby Day there were no tickets that got 6 out of 6. The total pool was $75000 +. Fortunately, in the pool there were several superfecta bets on the Kentucky Derby. Two of them paid almost $30000 each. If you were in the pool even though the pool didn't win the pick 6, the superfectas earned back enough to almost break even. A very nice strategy in the pool.
'til next time.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
Trifecta Research
I would like to solicit your help. I'm looking into the Trifecta bet to see how horseplayers use the Trifecta bet in their tool kit of bets. I have set up two polls that I would ask you to participate in.
Here are the two polls:
1) When you bet trifectas, what is the average cost of your bet?
2) What is your success with trifecta bets?
Click on the following two links to enter your data. (Click on the back button after you have finished making your entries.)
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/TrifectaCost.htm
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/TrifectaSuccess.htm
I will follow up later with an article on my blog.
Thanks for your participation.
Here are the two polls:
1) When you bet trifectas, what is the average cost of your bet?
2) What is your success with trifecta bets?
Click on the following two links to enter your data. (Click on the back button after you have finished making your entries.)
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/TrifectaCost.htm
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/TrifectaSuccess.htm
I will follow up later with an article on my blog.
Thanks for your participation.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
More on the 10-cent Superfecta
In my previous article I had results from just one track, Beulah Park. In my continuing research on the superfecta I have used two other tracks, Keeneland and Tampa Bay, because they tend to have a larger field of horses in all of their races and you can bet the 10-cent superfecta in each race. Most of the other tracks have just selected races where they offer the 10-cent superfecta bet. Also, after studying the results for superfectas for a couple of weeks the payoffs are much larger at Keeneland and Tampa Bay.
I have put together an analysis that gives some insight as to how to structure a 10-cent superfecta bet so the probabilities are in your favor. Click on the link below and take a few minutes to study the analysis summary I have put into a table.
http://billwinters.org/SuperfectaAnalysis.jpg
Notice from the analysis that 84% of the time that the top 6 ranked profit line (PL) horses will be in the superfecta. Take note that the top 3 ranked horses will place more often than win. Using this information let's structure a preferred bet that will give us an edge and keep the bet to $18. So you will understand my notation PL1 stands for the number 1 ranked profit line horse. PL2 stands for the second ranked profit line horse. And so on. ALL6 equals PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5,PL6.
Our Preferred Bet then is ALL6/PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL6/ALL6.
As an example if PL1=horse#6, PL2=horse#9, PL3=horse#3, PL4=horse#2, PL5=horse#7, PL6=horse#1 then the preferred bet would be
6,9,3,2,7,1/6,9,3/6,9,3,2,7,1/6,9,3,2,7,1.
May good fortune come your way.
'til next time.
I have put together an analysis that gives some insight as to how to structure a 10-cent superfecta bet so the probabilities are in your favor. Click on the link below and take a few minutes to study the analysis summary I have put into a table.
http://billwinters.org/SuperfectaAnalysis.jpg
Notice from the analysis that 84% of the time that the top 6 ranked profit line (PL) horses will be in the superfecta. Take note that the top 3 ranked horses will place more often than win. Using this information let's structure a preferred bet that will give us an edge and keep the bet to $18. So you will understand my notation PL1 stands for the number 1 ranked profit line horse. PL2 stands for the second ranked profit line horse. And so on. ALL6 equals PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5,PL6.
Our Preferred Bet then is ALL6/PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL6/ALL6.
As an example if PL1=horse#6, PL2=horse#9, PL3=horse#3, PL4=horse#2, PL5=horse#7, PL6=horse#1 then the preferred bet would be
6,9,3,2,7,1/6,9,3/6,9,3,2,7,1/6,9,3,2,7,1.
May good fortune come your way.
'til next time.
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
A 10-cent Superfecta Experiment
I have been running a poll on my blog "What is your success with 10 cent superfectas?". Take a look on the left side of my blog. The results so far are interesting. 45% are losing money using the 10-cent superfecta bet. 27% are making a net return of 0 to 50%. 18% are getting a net gain of 50 to 100% gain. 10% are getting over 100% net gain.
I have some useful statistics that can help with an experiment I ran today (April 8, 2008) at Beulah Race Track. If you use the Profit Line (PL), available at Twinspires.com, I have found that of the top three PL picks, one of the three will win better than 60% of the time. I have therefore formulated a High Probability 10-cent Superfecta bet that looks like this.
PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL/ALL/ALL (ALL = PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5,PL6) If there are just 6 horses in the race then ALL is all of the horses in the race. If there are more than 6 horses then use the first six Ranked PL horses. In my experiment I chose not to go above an $18 bet.
A second bet that I wanted to test was what I called the Lower Cost Obvious Bet. It again involves the first six Ranked PL horses. The Lower Cost 10-cent Superfecta bet looks like this. PL1/ALL/ALL/ALL It costs $6.
Go to the link below to see how the first and second races were bet.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820081.jpg
I followed the same pattern for each race. Go to the next link below to see the bets on races 3 and 4.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820082.jpg
The links to races 5 and 6 follow next.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820083.jpg
Races 7 and 8 are next.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820084.jpg
Race 9 follows and that completes the card for the day.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820085.jpg
What is most revealing is SUMMARY of results for the day. Click the link below to view the SUMMARY.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr82008Summary.jpg
The 10-cent super PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL/ALL/ALL paid in 7 of nine races. The Lower Cost 10-cent Superfecta bet PL1/ALL/ALL/ALL paid in only 2 races. This shows you the difference between an $18 bet and a $6 bet.
The net gain for the day was $85.21.
I hope that some of you horseplayers out there will try this approach and let me know how you do. I will be doing the same for some of the larger tracks and report on this at a later time.
Good Luck and God Bless.
I have some useful statistics that can help with an experiment I ran today (April 8, 2008) at Beulah Race Track. If you use the Profit Line (PL), available at Twinspires.com, I have found that of the top three PL picks, one of the three will win better than 60% of the time. I have therefore formulated a High Probability 10-cent Superfecta bet that looks like this.
PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL/ALL/ALL (ALL = PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5,PL6) If there are just 6 horses in the race then ALL is all of the horses in the race. If there are more than 6 horses then use the first six Ranked PL horses. In my experiment I chose not to go above an $18 bet.
A second bet that I wanted to test was what I called the Lower Cost Obvious Bet. It again involves the first six Ranked PL horses. The Lower Cost 10-cent Superfecta bet looks like this. PL1/ALL/ALL/ALL It costs $6.
Go to the link below to see how the first and second races were bet.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820081.jpg
I followed the same pattern for each race. Go to the next link below to see the bets on races 3 and 4.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820082.jpg
The links to races 5 and 6 follow next.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820083.jpg
Races 7 and 8 are next.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820084.jpg
Race 9 follows and that completes the card for the day.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820085.jpg
What is most revealing is SUMMARY of results for the day. Click the link below to view the SUMMARY.
http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr82008Summary.jpg
The 10-cent super PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL/ALL/ALL paid in 7 of nine races. The Lower Cost 10-cent Superfecta bet PL1/ALL/ALL/ALL paid in only 2 races. This shows you the difference between an $18 bet and a $6 bet.
The net gain for the day was $85.21.
I hope that some of you horseplayers out there will try this approach and let me know how you do. I will be doing the same for some of the larger tracks and report on this at a later time.
Good Luck and God Bless.
Sunday, March 30, 2008
Exotic Bets: The Trifecta
I have been running a poll that asks: What type of bet do you use most often? ( http://vote.pollit.com/webpoll2?ID=329064 )Just behind the win bet and the exacta is the trifecta at 20%. Infact these three bets make up 71% of the betting that horse players say they use most often.
Let me talk about the trifecta and how it can be played. With a trifecta we are concentrating on the horses that will win, place and show when the race is over. Before the race starts some good handicapping is usually needed to determine which horses could win, place or show and which horses you can throw out. Removing horses from your bet can many times make the difference between a profitable wager and a losing one. Let's first consider a trifecta box (a very common wager with horse players). The number of horses you put in a trifecta box can run up in cost very rapidly. For example, $1 trifecta box 3 horses costs $6, box 4 costs $24, box 5 costs $60, and box 6 costs $120. It gets rather expensive fast. The difference between boxing 3 horses and 6 horses is a huge $114. Now can you see why throwing out improbable horses is so important to a smart bet.
What if you like 6 horses in a race? What can you do to whittle down the cost of boxing 6 horses? Here are some suggestions. First, consider how much you will (or can afford to) put into the trifecta bet. Let's say $40. Next go back to your handicapping and see if you can reduce the number of horses that you think could win to say three. Let's say horses D, C, and B. Next look at the horses that you consider could place, say D,C,B,E. Now look at any other horses that could show, say A and F. Your bet is now CB/DCBE/DCBEAF. This will cost $36.
Some other examples of common trifecta bets are the following:
$1 trifecta A/BCDE/BCDE costs $12
$1 trifecta A/BCDEF/BCDEF costs $20
$1 trifecta A/BCDEFG/BCDEFG costs $30
$1 trifecta BCDE/A/BCDE costs $12
$1 trifecta BCDEFA/BCDEF costs $20
$1 trifecta BCDEFG/A/BCDEFG costs $30
Remember to keep your trifecta bets to what you can afford or are willing to spend.
Let me talk about the trifecta and how it can be played. With a trifecta we are concentrating on the horses that will win, place and show when the race is over. Before the race starts some good handicapping is usually needed to determine which horses could win, place or show and which horses you can throw out. Removing horses from your bet can many times make the difference between a profitable wager and a losing one. Let's first consider a trifecta box (a very common wager with horse players). The number of horses you put in a trifecta box can run up in cost very rapidly. For example, $1 trifecta box 3 horses costs $6, box 4 costs $24, box 5 costs $60, and box 6 costs $120. It gets rather expensive fast. The difference between boxing 3 horses and 6 horses is a huge $114. Now can you see why throwing out improbable horses is so important to a smart bet.
What if you like 6 horses in a race? What can you do to whittle down the cost of boxing 6 horses? Here are some suggestions. First, consider how much you will (or can afford to) put into the trifecta bet. Let's say $40. Next go back to your handicapping and see if you can reduce the number of horses that you think could win to say three. Let's say horses D, C, and B. Next look at the horses that you consider could place, say D,C,B,E. Now look at any other horses that could show, say A and F. Your bet is now CB/DCBE/DCBEAF. This will cost $36.
Some other examples of common trifecta bets are the following:
$1 trifecta A/BCDE/BCDE costs $12
$1 trifecta A/BCDEF/BCDEF costs $20
$1 trifecta A/BCDEFG/BCDEFG costs $30
$1 trifecta BCDE/A/BCDE costs $12
$1 trifecta BCDEFA/BCDEF costs $20
$1 trifecta BCDEFG/A/BCDEFG costs $30
Remember to keep your trifecta bets to what you can afford or are willing to spend.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Making good use of the Morning Line (M/L)
One of the statistics available to the horse player is the morning line (M/L). It's available in the program at your local track as well as on the internet at http://equibase.com in the free 'entries' for every track.
The morning line is often overlooked and not given much value by both the beginning horse player as well as the seasoned player. I took a recent look at a large sample of race tracks around the country and found that at the end of the track meet that the morning line favorite won at the track between 25 to 33 percent of the time depending on the track. So on average let's say that the M/L favorite wins about 30% of the time. If you were to bet the M/L favorite all of the time you would expect to win 30% of the time. This is a pretty good average for a baseball player but it's a losing proposition for a horse player.
So what good is the morning line and is it useful? I say yes. I use the M/L as a base for comparison at the track. If you have a pad of paper with you at the track or at home while watching the tote board on your PC screen, it is very useful to watch the tote change on some horses. For example, if you see a horse in a race whose M/L is 4/1 and as post time nears you see the actual tote odds go down to say even odds or 1/1, something is going on here. There is a lot of money being bet on this horse. Why? There can be a lot of reasons which you may not know about but this horse should gain your immediate attention and you should factor this in your handicapping of the race before you bet.
Another use of the M/L, particularly in grade I, II, or III stakes races is when the M/L favorite is a heavy favorite at say, even odds (1/1). Sometimes the tote goes against the heavy favorite. It maybe 2/1, 5/2 or even 3/1. This tells you that the money bet on the horse does not match the M/L expectations. This should get your attention and you should take a second look at how you will bet the race.
I believe the morning line has some value if you integrate it in your thinking properly.
The morning line is often overlooked and not given much value by both the beginning horse player as well as the seasoned player. I took a recent look at a large sample of race tracks around the country and found that at the end of the track meet that the morning line favorite won at the track between 25 to 33 percent of the time depending on the track. So on average let's say that the M/L favorite wins about 30% of the time. If you were to bet the M/L favorite all of the time you would expect to win 30% of the time. This is a pretty good average for a baseball player but it's a losing proposition for a horse player.
So what good is the morning line and is it useful? I say yes. I use the M/L as a base for comparison at the track. If you have a pad of paper with you at the track or at home while watching the tote board on your PC screen, it is very useful to watch the tote change on some horses. For example, if you see a horse in a race whose M/L is 4/1 and as post time nears you see the actual tote odds go down to say even odds or 1/1, something is going on here. There is a lot of money being bet on this horse. Why? There can be a lot of reasons which you may not know about but this horse should gain your immediate attention and you should factor this in your handicapping of the race before you bet.
Another use of the M/L, particularly in grade I, II, or III stakes races is when the M/L favorite is a heavy favorite at say, even odds (1/1). Sometimes the tote goes against the heavy favorite. It maybe 2/1, 5/2 or even 3/1. This tells you that the money bet on the horse does not match the M/L expectations. This should get your attention and you should take a second look at how you will bet the race.
I believe the morning line has some value if you integrate it in your thinking properly.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Tote Analysis of the Mac Diarmida Handicap
The featured race, race 8, on Sunday, March 16th at Gulfstream was the Grade II Mac Diarmida Handicap. It started out with 14 horses but two were scratched. Here was a race with some quality horses. I want to illustrate with this tote analysis the choice of a race to bet on, how the tote analysis works, and the placement of the bets from the analysis.
The tote analysis for this race can be found at
http://billwinters.org/GulfstreamSundayR8Mar16.jpg . First observe that the 3 horse, True Cause, ridden by John Velazquez, at the 20m (20 minute) mark immediately took a lot of money and the tote odds were at 2/1. The morning line (ML) started at 5/1 and the profit line (PL) was at 9/1. The 3 horse was indeed one to watch closely. Down to the 10 minute mark True Cause was still at 2/1. Both the morning line (3/1) and profit line (9/5) favorite was the 9 horse, Stream of Gold ridden by Eibar Coa. At the 5m and 3m marks the 9 horse began taking a lot of money and the odds went down to 8/5. The 3 horse odds came up to 7/2. Both horses looked very strong on the toteboard.
To bet this race I will use $2 win bets, $1 exacta bets, and $1 Trifecta bets for illustrative purposes. My actual bets were higher than this. I chose to place $2 to win on both 3 and 9 ($2 win 9,3). I placed a $1 exacta box on 3 and 9 ($1 exacta 3/9 and 9/3). As a hedge I also bet the exacta 3,9/1,4,11. My trifecta bets were 3,9/3,9/1,4,11 and the hedge bet was 3,9/1,4,11/3,9. The finish for this turf race was 9-3-11. The 9 horse paid $4.60 to win, the $1 exacta paid $10 and the $1 trifecta paid $47.80.
Note from the tote analysis that I used the top five tote picks in my bets. Horse 9 was the top tote pick at 8/5. The 3 horse was second at 7/2. The 1 horse was third at 6/1. The 11 horse was fourth at 9/1 and the 4 horse was 5th at 10/1.
The cost of the bets in this race were as follows: Win bets cost was $4. The exactas cost $2 for the exacta box 3,9 an $6 for 3,9/1,4,11. The trifecta cost $6 for 3,9/3,9/1,4,11 and $6 for 3,9/1,4,11/3,9. The net gain for this race was (4.60+10.00+47.80)-(4.00+8.00+12.00)= $38.40.
The tote analysis for this race can be found at
http://billwinters.org/GulfstreamSundayR8Mar16.jpg . First observe that the 3 horse, True Cause, ridden by John Velazquez, at the 20m (20 minute) mark immediately took a lot of money and the tote odds were at 2/1. The morning line (ML) started at 5/1 and the profit line (PL) was at 9/1. The 3 horse was indeed one to watch closely. Down to the 10 minute mark True Cause was still at 2/1. Both the morning line (3/1) and profit line (9/5) favorite was the 9 horse, Stream of Gold ridden by Eibar Coa. At the 5m and 3m marks the 9 horse began taking a lot of money and the odds went down to 8/5. The 3 horse odds came up to 7/2. Both horses looked very strong on the toteboard.
To bet this race I will use $2 win bets, $1 exacta bets, and $1 Trifecta bets for illustrative purposes. My actual bets were higher than this. I chose to place $2 to win on both 3 and 9 ($2 win 9,3). I placed a $1 exacta box on 3 and 9 ($1 exacta 3/9 and 9/3). As a hedge I also bet the exacta 3,9/1,4,11. My trifecta bets were 3,9/3,9/1,4,11 and the hedge bet was 3,9/1,4,11/3,9. The finish for this turf race was 9-3-11. The 9 horse paid $4.60 to win, the $1 exacta paid $10 and the $1 trifecta paid $47.80.
Note from the tote analysis that I used the top five tote picks in my bets. Horse 9 was the top tote pick at 8/5. The 3 horse was second at 7/2. The 1 horse was third at 6/1. The 11 horse was fourth at 9/1 and the 4 horse was 5th at 10/1.
The cost of the bets in this race were as follows: Win bets cost was $4. The exactas cost $2 for the exacta box 3,9 an $6 for 3,9/1,4,11. The trifecta cost $6 for 3,9/3,9/1,4,11 and $6 for 3,9/1,4,11/3,9. The net gain for this race was (4.60+10.00+47.80)-(4.00+8.00+12.00)= $38.40.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Exotic Bets: The Exacta
I have been running a poll on my web site http://billwinters.org/handicap2.htm for quite a while now. The results of this poll show that the exacta bet (26%)is about as popular as the win bet (25%). This leads me to taking a look at the exacta and how it can be used as a profitable bet.
The concept of the exacta is to focus on who will win and who will place after the race is over. The horseplayer considers what horses can win the race as well as the horses that can place in the race. The bet takes into account your best possible combinations for a particular race. For example, if you believe horse A will win and horse B will place then an exacta bet is very simple and inexpensive to buy (A $2 exacta costs $2.). You merely bet the exacta A with B (written as A/B). This will rarely pay off no matter how good your handicapping is. The approach to placing exacta bets is to use your handicapping results to choose those horses that you believe can win over those horses that you believe could place and see what those combinations will cost you.
Example 1: You believe that horse D will surely win but you also believe horses A,B,E and F could place. In this case you would place a bet as D/A,B,E,F. If it is a $1 exacta it would cost you $4. You would have 4 possibilities working for you: DA, DB, DE and DF.
Example 2: You believe that horse C will win and that any of the other horses in the race could
place. Your bet would be C/ALL. (A race with 10 horses in it will cost $9.)
Example 3: You believe there are several long shot horses in the race that could win and that
horses A and D will place. You would place the bet ALL/A,D.
A popular bet is the exacta box. This is a bet that allows for any of the horses in a box to win or place and you win the bet as long as both horses are included in the box bet. The limitation of the bet is the cost. Using a $1 exacta, for example, boxing two horses will cost $2, three horses $6, four horses $12, five horses $20, six horses $30, and seven horses $42.
The approach to betting the exacta is to doing some careful handicapping ahead of time. Use the
technique of throwing out those horses that you believe from your handicapping can not either
win or place. This way you can bring down the cost of the bet and at the same time maximize
your profit.
Reference: http://vote.pollit.com/webpoll2?ID=329064
The concept of the exacta is to focus on who will win and who will place after the race is over. The horseplayer considers what horses can win the race as well as the horses that can place in the race. The bet takes into account your best possible combinations for a particular race. For example, if you believe horse A will win and horse B will place then an exacta bet is very simple and inexpensive to buy (A $2 exacta costs $2.). You merely bet the exacta A with B (written as A/B). This will rarely pay off no matter how good your handicapping is. The approach to placing exacta bets is to use your handicapping results to choose those horses that you believe can win over those horses that you believe could place and see what those combinations will cost you.
Example 1: You believe that horse D will surely win but you also believe horses A,B,E and F could place. In this case you would place a bet as D/A,B,E,F. If it is a $1 exacta it would cost you $4. You would have 4 possibilities working for you: DA, DB, DE and DF.
Example 2: You believe that horse C will win and that any of the other horses in the race could
place. Your bet would be C/ALL. (A race with 10 horses in it will cost $9.)
Example 3: You believe there are several long shot horses in the race that could win and that
horses A and D will place. You would place the bet ALL/A,D.
A popular bet is the exacta box. This is a bet that allows for any of the horses in a box to win or place and you win the bet as long as both horses are included in the box bet. The limitation of the bet is the cost. Using a $1 exacta, for example, boxing two horses will cost $2, three horses $6, four horses $12, five horses $20, six horses $30, and seven horses $42.
The approach to betting the exacta is to doing some careful handicapping ahead of time. Use the
technique of throwing out those horses that you believe from your handicapping can not either
win or place. This way you can bring down the cost of the bet and at the same time maximize
your profit.
Reference: http://vote.pollit.com/webpoll2?ID=329064
Sunday, March 9, 2008
Win Bet Stategies
Placing a win bet seems simple enough ... but is it? All to many times one has the tendency to just 'do it' without too much thought particularly if it's just a $2 win bet. Now a $100 win bet is a different matter unless you just have plenty of money to throw away. With a $100 win bet you want to have a very high confidence level that your bet will pay off. This is where your handicapping comes into play.
Just concentrating on a 'win bet', there are lots of considerations. If you pick a race to bet on you may come to the conclusion (from your handicapping) that there is just one horse that you are convinced will win the race. In this case scale your bet to your level of confidence. For example, you may be so convinced that you are willing to bet $50 to win on that horse but no more.
Now in another race that you have handicapped you find two horses, or maybe even three that you are convinced could win the race. You just don't know which one. With a little knowledge of the odds on each horse you can do a quick calculation to determine if you'll place a win bet on these 2 or 3 horses. For example, let's say these three horses have odds of 2/1, 3/1 and 5/1 on the tote board at race time. Quite simply you could place say, a $10 bet on each of these three horses to win. If the 2/1 odd horse wins your return would be (2 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $30. You bet $10 on all three horse so your cost was $30. You get your money back. Now if the 3/1 horse wins your pay off will be (3 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $40. So you come out $40 - $30 or $10 ahead. If the 5/1 horse wins your return is (5 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $60. That's $60 - $30 or $30 ahead. If you're totally wrong and one of the other horses comes in you lose $30.
Notice that in the above example that you bet the same amount "$10" on each horse. What if you wanted to scale your bets on each horse so that you come out ahead no matter which horse wins. This technique is called 'dutching'. By going to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutching you can learn more about dutching. If you google 'dutching' you can find calculators to take to the track with you to perform these strategies. A specific tool I have used is called 'hedgehog'. It can be found at http://www.crowncity.com/speedplus/hedgehog.html. I will dedicate a complete article at a later time to dutching.
Just concentrating on a 'win bet', there are lots of considerations. If you pick a race to bet on you may come to the conclusion (from your handicapping) that there is just one horse that you are convinced will win the race. In this case scale your bet to your level of confidence. For example, you may be so convinced that you are willing to bet $50 to win on that horse but no more.
Now in another race that you have handicapped you find two horses, or maybe even three that you are convinced could win the race. You just don't know which one. With a little knowledge of the odds on each horse you can do a quick calculation to determine if you'll place a win bet on these 2 or 3 horses. For example, let's say these three horses have odds of 2/1, 3/1 and 5/1 on the tote board at race time. Quite simply you could place say, a $10 bet on each of these three horses to win. If the 2/1 odd horse wins your return would be (2 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $30. You bet $10 on all three horse so your cost was $30. You get your money back. Now if the 3/1 horse wins your pay off will be (3 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $40. So you come out $40 - $30 or $10 ahead. If the 5/1 horse wins your return is (5 x 2 + 2) x 5 or $60. That's $60 - $30 or $30 ahead. If you're totally wrong and one of the other horses comes in you lose $30.
Notice that in the above example that you bet the same amount "$10" on each horse. What if you wanted to scale your bets on each horse so that you come out ahead no matter which horse wins. This technique is called 'dutching'. By going to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutching you can learn more about dutching. If you google 'dutching' you can find calculators to take to the track with you to perform these strategies. A specific tool I have used is called 'hedgehog'. It can be found at http://www.crowncity.com/speedplus/hedgehog.html. I will dedicate a complete article at a later time to dutching.
Monday, March 3, 2008
My Favorite Exacta Bet
Sunday, March 2, 2008 I played the horses at Gulfstream. I wanted to combine both tote pick analysis and my favorite exacta bet. I set the threshold for a tote pick at less than 0.5 and used both the morning line (ML) and profit Line (PL) as my base. So to do the computation you just divide the tote odds by the ML (tote odds/ML) and/or the tote odds by the PL (tote odds/PL). The tote odds will be at the 3 minute mark(3m). You will see in my notes for each race what I did.
My favorite exacta is one where I take the favorite either on the basis of the ML or the PL or the tote pick or any combination of the three. My ideal would be when the favorite is the ML favorite, the profit line favorite, and the tote pick favorite. This doesn't always happen often enough so I may use the favorite who is both the ML and PL favorite. My exacta bet would then be the favorite/ALL (ALL is all of the other horses in the race). However, my hedge for this bet is ALL/the favorite. Actually the hedge is what I am hoping will happen. Why? Because the pay off can be quite large if the favorite is beaten by one of the long shots in the race. I have seen it happen hundreds of times where a heavy favorite is beaten in the last hundred yards by one of the other horses in the race. I don't have exact statistics on this phenonemon but it is often enough to play the hedge bet.
I am going to show you my notes for every race so you can see the tote analysis as well as my thinking for each race. Let's start with race 1. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes. In race 1 at the 3 minute (3m) mark, the 7 horse is a strong tote pick with 0.375 (ML) and 0.125 (PL). For purposes of illustration I'm going to use a $2 win bet on the 7 horse. (I actually bet $20 to win. I came with a $200 bankroll.) The 7 horse did win and paid $6 for each $2 bet. A good way to start for the day.
On to race 2. Click again on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes and the tote analysis. The tote pick in this race was the 5 horse with a 0.333 (ML). Again we bet $2 win on the 5 horse. Luck is with us again and the 5 horse wins. This time the pay off is $6.40 for each $2 bet. We're feeling pretty good at this point. Let's not get too over joyed at this point and emotional. We want to keep our emotions at a minimum.
Race 3 is next so click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis for this race. At the 3m mark the 2 horse has a 0.3 (ML) value and a 0.171 (PL) value. Again we have a strong tote pick so we bet $2 win on the #2 horse. This time the 2 horse fades and isn't even in the money. So back to reality.
The 4th race is next. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. The 5 horse is the ML and PL pick. I took a look at the Daily Racing Form (DRF) and came to the conclusion that several horses could beat the 5 horse. I took a break and didn't bet this race. The hamburger tasted pretty good.
The 5th race had a couple of scratched horses. One scratch was early (#6) and one scratch was right at post time (#5). Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. Here is another race where there was no obvious tote pick so I opted to not bet this one either. As it turned out I hadn't finished my hamburger and I got in a conversation so I lost my focus. I don't like to bet in this instance.
With the hamburger and conversation out of the way I now am ready to concentrate on race 6. I have to admit that one of my favorite jockeys is John Velasquez. He is riding the #4 horse.
Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg and take a look at my notes. The 5 horse is my ideal pick however. The horse is the ML, PL, and tote pick in this race. Now is the time to to play my favorite exacta bet: 5/ALL along with the hedge bet ALL/5. Johnnie V on the 4 horse leads all the way to win the $1 exacta for $13.40. The hedge bet (4/5) pays off. However, the net gain is only $3.40.
Race 7 is the first race on the card with a lot of horses in the race (11 horses, one was scratched). This race had three particularly good indicators. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg to take a look. Notice that the 12 horse was both the ML and PL favorite. He looked to be the quality in the race. See how the odds started at the 20m mark at 7/1. Money kept coming in on the horse for 15 minutes until at the 5m and 3m marks the horse was at 5/2. I really liked seeing this. I played my favorite exacta bet 12/ALL along with the hedge (for insurance) ALL/12. The 12 horse came around wide at the 3/4 pole and went on to pass all the horses in front to win. The 2 horse came in second at 22/1 odds to produce a nice $1 exacta of $79.10.
Race 8 was a nice allowance race with 6 horses after the 4 horse was scratched. Johnnie V was on the 1 horse who was a heavy ML and PL favorite as well as the money odds 1/2 favorite at 3m to post. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg to see my notes on this race. Again I placed my favorite exacta bet 1/ALL and ALL/1. Sure enough the 1 horse won by 8 1/2 lengths. Keep your eye on this horse for the Kentucky Derby, "One Hot Wish".
Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg for the 9th race. The feature race of the day, the Davona Dale Stakes, has John Velasquez and Todd Pletcher teaming up on "Game Face" a very heavy favorite. My favorite exacta is 4/ALL and ALL/4. The 1 horse beat the 4 and again the hedge bet pays $9.40 to just about break even.
The last race, race 10, Johnnie V and Pletcher again combine on "Linkin". Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR10.jpg . There were 14 horses in the race. Two were scratched. The ML and PL favorites were the 5 horse Linkin. I bet my favorite exacta again, 5/ALL and ALL/5. The 11 horse at 14/1 outfinished Linkin at the finish by a length and 3/4. A really nice way to finish the day. The hedge bet $1 exacta paid $109.70.
For the afternoon the net gain was $152 (assuming $2 win bets and $1 exactas). This was a nice Return On Investment of 295%. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundaySummary03022008.jpg for the summary.
'til next time.
My favorite exacta is one where I take the favorite either on the basis of the ML or the PL or the tote pick or any combination of the three. My ideal would be when the favorite is the ML favorite, the profit line favorite, and the tote pick favorite. This doesn't always happen often enough so I may use the favorite who is both the ML and PL favorite. My exacta bet would then be the favorite/ALL (ALL is all of the other horses in the race). However, my hedge for this bet is ALL/the favorite. Actually the hedge is what I am hoping will happen. Why? Because the pay off can be quite large if the favorite is beaten by one of the long shots in the race. I have seen it happen hundreds of times where a heavy favorite is beaten in the last hundred yards by one of the other horses in the race. I don't have exact statistics on this phenonemon but it is often enough to play the hedge bet.
I am going to show you my notes for every race so you can see the tote analysis as well as my thinking for each race. Let's start with race 1. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes. In race 1 at the 3 minute (3m) mark, the 7 horse is a strong tote pick with 0.375 (ML) and 0.125 (PL). For purposes of illustration I'm going to use a $2 win bet on the 7 horse. (I actually bet $20 to win. I came with a $200 bankroll.) The 7 horse did win and paid $6 for each $2 bet. A good way to start for the day.
On to race 2. Click again on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg to see my notes and the tote analysis. The tote pick in this race was the 5 horse with a 0.333 (ML). Again we bet $2 win on the 5 horse. Luck is with us again and the 5 horse wins. This time the pay off is $6.40 for each $2 bet. We're feeling pretty good at this point. Let's not get too over joyed at this point and emotional. We want to keep our emotions at a minimum.
Race 3 is next so click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR1R2R3.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis for this race. At the 3m mark the 2 horse has a 0.3 (ML) value and a 0.171 (PL) value. Again we have a strong tote pick so we bet $2 win on the #2 horse. This time the 2 horse fades and isn't even in the money. So back to reality.
The 4th race is next. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. The 5 horse is the ML and PL pick. I took a look at the Daily Racing Form (DRF) and came to the conclusion that several horses could beat the 5 horse. I took a break and didn't bet this race. The hamburger tasted pretty good.
The 5th race had a couple of scratched horses. One scratch was early (#6) and one scratch was right at post time (#5). Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR4R5.jpg and take a look at the tote analysis. Here is another race where there was no obvious tote pick so I opted to not bet this one either. As it turned out I hadn't finished my hamburger and I got in a conversation so I lost my focus. I don't like to bet in this instance.
With the hamburger and conversation out of the way I now am ready to concentrate on race 6. I have to admit that one of my favorite jockeys is John Velasquez. He is riding the #4 horse.
Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg and take a look at my notes. The 5 horse is my ideal pick however. The horse is the ML, PL, and tote pick in this race. Now is the time to to play my favorite exacta bet: 5/ALL along with the hedge bet ALL/5. Johnnie V on the 4 horse leads all the way to win the $1 exacta for $13.40. The hedge bet (4/5) pays off. However, the net gain is only $3.40.
Race 7 is the first race on the card with a lot of horses in the race (11 horses, one was scratched). This race had three particularly good indicators. Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR6R7.jpg to take a look. Notice that the 12 horse was both the ML and PL favorite. He looked to be the quality in the race. See how the odds started at the 20m mark at 7/1. Money kept coming in on the horse for 15 minutes until at the 5m and 3m marks the horse was at 5/2. I really liked seeing this. I played my favorite exacta bet 12/ALL along with the hedge (for insurance) ALL/12. The 12 horse came around wide at the 3/4 pole and went on to pass all the horses in front to win. The 2 horse came in second at 22/1 odds to produce a nice $1 exacta of $79.10.
Race 8 was a nice allowance race with 6 horses after the 4 horse was scratched. Johnnie V was on the 1 horse who was a heavy ML and PL favorite as well as the money odds 1/2 favorite at 3m to post. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg to see my notes on this race. Again I placed my favorite exacta bet 1/ALL and ALL/1. Sure enough the 1 horse won by 8 1/2 lengths. Keep your eye on this horse for the Kentucky Derby, "One Hot Wish".
Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR8R9.jpg for the 9th race. The feature race of the day, the Davona Dale Stakes, has John Velasquez and Todd Pletcher teaming up on "Game Face" a very heavy favorite. My favorite exacta is 4/ALL and ALL/4. The 1 horse beat the 4 and again the hedge bet pays $9.40 to just about break even.
The last race, race 10, Johnnie V and Pletcher again combine on "Linkin". Click on
http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundayR10.jpg . There were 14 horses in the race. Two were scratched. The ML and PL favorites were the 5 horse Linkin. I bet my favorite exacta again, 5/ALL and ALL/5. The 11 horse at 14/1 outfinished Linkin at the finish by a length and 3/4. A really nice way to finish the day. The hedge bet $1 exacta paid $109.70.
For the afternoon the net gain was $152 (assuming $2 win bets and $1 exactas). This was a nice Return On Investment of 295%. Click on http://www.geocities.com/wm_kyran/GulfstreamSundaySummary03022008.jpg for the summary.
'til next time.
Saturday, March 1, 2008
Test your handicapping skills for free
There are two locations that I like where you can try your hand at handicapping the horses and you can do it for free. One is a daily contest to pick the winning horse. The other is weekly on Saturdays.
Brisnet.com has a free contest called 'Race of the Day' that you can enter each day at http://www.brisnet.com/raceoftheday. The contest builds up entries toward a drawing that is made twice a year. The first part of the year the contest ends with a round trip for two to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. The second half of the year the contest ends with a trip for two to the Breeders Cup races in October. In addition, each week or month that you are one of the top 50 handicappers, you will receive a bonus of 50 additional entries. The Grand Prize Winner is chosen at random at the end of the contest.
PublicHandicapper.com is a weekly handicapping contest that is free and you can enter by going to http://www.publichandicapper.com. They usually have four races (sometimes more) each Saturday at different tracks around the country. You pick a horse to win with two alternate horses in case of scratches out of the race. The results are based on $2 win bet. You run up dollar winnings based in the payoffs from the winning $2 bet. There are three contests run during the year. The 'Publichandicapper Prep' runs from February through April ending with picks on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs. The 'Publichandicapper Challenge' runs from the Kentucky Oaks to the Breeders' Cup in October and has the biggest prizes. The 'Winter of Our Discontent' Runs from December through January. Prizes are awarded weekly and at the end of the contest period. Check out the 'Rules and Prizes' on their web site.
Try both contests out and hone you skills for free.
Brisnet.com has a free contest called 'Race of the Day' that you can enter each day at http://www.brisnet.com/raceoftheday. The contest builds up entries toward a drawing that is made twice a year. The first part of the year the contest ends with a round trip for two to the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May. The second half of the year the contest ends with a trip for two to the Breeders Cup races in October. In addition, each week or month that you are one of the top 50 handicappers, you will receive a bonus of 50 additional entries. The Grand Prize Winner is chosen at random at the end of the contest.
PublicHandicapper.com is a weekly handicapping contest that is free and you can enter by going to http://www.publichandicapper.com. They usually have four races (sometimes more) each Saturday at different tracks around the country. You pick a horse to win with two alternate horses in case of scratches out of the race. The results are based on $2 win bet. You run up dollar winnings based in the payoffs from the winning $2 bet. There are three contests run during the year. The 'Publichandicapper Prep' runs from February through April ending with picks on Kentucky Derby Day at Churchill Downs. The 'Publichandicapper Challenge' runs from the Kentucky Oaks to the Breeders' Cup in October and has the biggest prizes. The 'Winter of Our Discontent' Runs from December through January. Prizes are awarded weekly and at the end of the contest period. Check out the 'Rules and Prizes' on their web site.
Try both contests out and hone you skills for free.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
One of My Favorite Trifecta Bets
After years of watching hundreds, if not thousands, of races there is a pattern that occurs quite frequently. It is a pattern that the horse player can look for and spot by doing some homework ahead of time and then watching the tote board from 16 minutes before post up to 2 minutes before post. During this time you record the tote odds for each horse every 2 minutes. This is how you confirm the pattern.
The homework you do ahead of time is to look at the morning line (M/L) of the races at several tracks several hours (or even a day) before a race goes off. What you look for is a race that has 2 superior horses in the race. Looking at the M/L you may spot a race where these two horses have ,say, an M/L= 6/5 and 8/5 respectively. You also notice that the other horses have M/L at 3/1 and higher. Usually these races are allowance or stakes races where the quality of the horses is superior. You can further go to the Daily Racing Form (DRF) online or the printed version and see who these two horses are and look at their past performances (PP) compared with the rest of the horses in the race.
As you watch the tote board and record the odds you want to see if these two horses continue to be the two favorites up to 2 minutes before post time. Now here is a favorite trifecta bet that I have won hundreds of times over the years. Let's assume that there are 10 horses in the race and that 3 and 8 are the heavy favorites. The trifecta bet would be placed as follows: 3,8/ALL/3,8 (and 3,8/3,8/ALL as a hedge).
Let me explain this bet. Over the years I have found that there is a high probably that either 3 or 8 will win. Further it is likely that these two horses will duel for the lead around the track with one of the two winning out in the last quarter or eighth of a mile to the finish line. There is also a good probably that the second horse will weaken toward the end and one of the longer shots will come on to place second. To discover whether this pattern is true, I suggest you test this out a few times before you ever bet it. See for yourself.
As a hedge bet you can use 3,8/3,8/ALL in case the second horse doesn't tire out and stays with the winner to take second.
The homework you do ahead of time is to look at the morning line (M/L) of the races at several tracks several hours (or even a day) before a race goes off. What you look for is a race that has 2 superior horses in the race. Looking at the M/L you may spot a race where these two horses have ,say, an M/L= 6/5 and 8/5 respectively. You also notice that the other horses have M/L at 3/1 and higher. Usually these races are allowance or stakes races where the quality of the horses is superior. You can further go to the Daily Racing Form (DRF) online or the printed version and see who these two horses are and look at their past performances (PP) compared with the rest of the horses in the race.
As you watch the tote board and record the odds you want to see if these two horses continue to be the two favorites up to 2 minutes before post time. Now here is a favorite trifecta bet that I have won hundreds of times over the years. Let's assume that there are 10 horses in the race and that 3 and 8 are the heavy favorites. The trifecta bet would be placed as follows: 3,8/ALL/3,8 (and 3,8/3,8/ALL as a hedge).
Let me explain this bet. Over the years I have found that there is a high probably that either 3 or 8 will win. Further it is likely that these two horses will duel for the lead around the track with one of the two winning out in the last quarter or eighth of a mile to the finish line. There is also a good probably that the second horse will weaken toward the end and one of the longer shots will come on to place second. To discover whether this pattern is true, I suggest you test this out a few times before you ever bet it. See for yourself.
As a hedge bet you can use 3,8/3,8/ALL in case the second horse doesn't tire out and stays with the winner to take second.
Thursday, February 14, 2008
More Profits by Eliminating Bad Bets
What is a bad bet? It is a bet that you have no idea of the chances for winning it. Why would someone want to make such a bet? When a horseplayer goes to the track there is the strong tendency to bet on every race just because you are there. It is just plain difficult to not bet every race. The emotion of it all is just too consuming. Many bets are made on pure emotion. These are bad bets.
There is a case for betting over the internet. When you go to the track you have the tendency to bet on all your local track races. You may also bet on a simulcast track or two. This leaves a lot of room for placing bad bets. However, when you bet over the internet you can remove most of the emotion associated with being at the track. You can look for and pick and chose the races that have a high probability of winning. Leave most of the races alone. Just don't bet them. Bet just those races that you have the edge in. I am planning a future article where I will chose
races from many tracks and I'll explain why I chose each race. This approach will allow you to remove the emotion from your betting and allow you to control the amount you bet.
In a previous article, "A Day at the Track using Tote Analysis", I explained why I did not bet 3 of the 9 races on the card that day. If you are using tote analysis it is a good way to prevent bad bets.
It takes courage not to place a bet on a race. Every bad bet you eliminate is money you keep in your bankroll. Your return on investment (ROI) can be much higher at the end of the day. The difference between a winning day and a losing one may be the bad bets you have eliminated.
There is a case for betting over the internet. When you go to the track you have the tendency to bet on all your local track races. You may also bet on a simulcast track or two. This leaves a lot of room for placing bad bets. However, when you bet over the internet you can remove most of the emotion associated with being at the track. You can look for and pick and chose the races that have a high probability of winning. Leave most of the races alone. Just don't bet them. Bet just those races that you have the edge in. I am planning a future article where I will chose
races from many tracks and I'll explain why I chose each race. This approach will allow you to remove the emotion from your betting and allow you to control the amount you bet.
In a previous article, "A Day at the Track using Tote Analysis", I explained why I did not bet 3 of the 9 races on the card that day. If you are using tote analysis it is a good way to prevent bad bets.
It takes courage not to place a bet on a race. Every bad bet you eliminate is money you keep in your bankroll. Your return on investment (ROI) can be much higher at the end of the day. The difference between a winning day and a losing one may be the bad bets you have eliminated.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
A Starting Point for Betting Simulcast Tracks
Several years ago I set up a web page for myself that would allow me to go to the resources that I needed to get ready for a day of racing. It became popular by word of mouth to others, especially those horseplayers at Remington Park my home track, who also started using it. That web page has had over 125,000 hits in the last several years and is reached at
http://billwinters.org/handicap2
There is a selection bar on this page that includes the following: Race Tracks/E-ponies/Equibase/Handicapping/Twinspires/Brisnet/TVG/Racing Channel/Daily Racing Form
A click on "Race Tracks" takes you toUSA Horse RacingTracks - Listed by State.
http://www.officialusa.com/stateguides/horseracingtracks/index.html
A click on E-ponies takes you to Computer-based handicapping - the best source for free picks
http://www.e-ponies.com/
Official source for thoroughbred racing information
http://www.equibase.com/
To listen to daily free audio selections/ race of the day free selection
http://www.trackmaster.com/
A Churchill Downs Corp. Wagering Site
http://www.twinspires.com/content/
Bloodstock Research Information Services
http://www.brisnet.com/
TVG Interactive Horseracing
http://www.tvg.com/
Provides Toteboards for Thoroughbreds, Harness Racing, and Greyhounds
http://www.racingchannel.com/
America's Turf Authority Since 1894
http://www.drf.com/
I have found that the favorite link used by many horseplayers is the E-ponies link with the free computer-based handicapping free picks. I have done some studies on the E-ponies picks and can offer some advice. Just picking the top choice in each race is a losing proposition over the long run. Choosing the top three choices will get you close to making some money in the long run. The best advice is to use some handicapping tools along with the E-ponies free picks. I like Brisnet's Ultimate PP's.
Enjoy and good luck.
http://billwinters.org/handicap2
There is a selection bar on this page that includes the following: Race Tracks/E-ponies/Equibase/Handicapping/Twinspires/Brisnet/TVG/Racing Channel/Daily Racing Form
A click on "Race Tracks" takes you toUSA Horse RacingTracks - Listed by State.
http://www.officialusa.com/stateguides/horseracingtracks/index.html
A click on E-ponies takes you to Computer-based handicapping - the best source for free picks
http://www.e-ponies.com/
Official source for thoroughbred racing information
http://www.equibase.com/
To listen to daily free audio selections/ race of the day free selection
http://www.trackmaster.com/
A Churchill Downs Corp. Wagering Site
http://www.twinspires.com/content/
Bloodstock Research Information Services
http://www.brisnet.com/
TVG Interactive Horseracing
http://www.tvg.com/
Provides Toteboards for Thoroughbreds, Harness Racing, and Greyhounds
http://www.racingchannel.com/
America's Turf Authority Since 1894
http://www.drf.com/
I have found that the favorite link used by many horseplayers is the E-ponies link with the free computer-based handicapping free picks. I have done some studies on the E-ponies picks and can offer some advice. Just picking the top choice in each race is a losing proposition over the long run. Choosing the top three choices will get you close to making some money in the long run. The best advice is to use some handicapping tools along with the E-ponies free picks. I like Brisnet's Ultimate PP's.
Enjoy and good luck.
Friday, February 1, 2008
Exacta Betting using Tote Analysis
In a previous blog article, "A Day at the Track Using Tote Analysis", I chose Gulfstream on January 24, 2008. In that article I kept it simple and only used win bets. Let's look at how you would have done if you did exacta betting on the same races that day. The tote analysis for the first three races are found at
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg .
In race 1 we do not bet since our analysis showed that any horse in the race could likely
win.
In race 2 the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the profit Line favorite at 9/5 was going to also be the tote pick. The exacta bet here was to bet the 3 horse (on top in the win position) along with the rest of the horses in the place position. The bet then is written 3/ALL. As a hedge, in case another horse beats the 3, we place the bet ALL/3. [In summary then the bet is 3/ALL and ALL/3.] The cost of this bet (assuming a $1 exacta bet) is $5 + $5 or $10. The result of this race was that the #1 horse beat out the #3 horse who placed. We won the bet with the hedge part of the bet. 1 - 3 was the finish order. The $1 exacta paid $15.60. A net gain of (15.60 - 10.00) $5.60.
I wrote in an earlier blog article, "One of My Favorite Trifecta Bets", that I liked this bet when the conditions were right. The conditions were right in this race. The tote analysis showed at the 3m mark that the #3 horse was at even odds (1/1) and the #4 horse was at 2/1. These two horses were solid favorites in the race. The trifecta bet then was 3,4/3,4/ALL. The race finished with 3-4-7. The $1 trifecta paid $13.20 and cost $10. This gave us a net gain of $3.20. The $1 exacta box of the two favorites paid $4.50 and cost $2.00, a net gain of $2.50.
[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]
The 4th race had four scratched horses. We don't pay as much attention to the M/L and P/L favorite with all these scratches. This is the kind of race where we pay attention to the tote analysis and where the money is coming into the betting. It can really pay off. At the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The exacta bet here is to use all 4 of these horses in an exacta box (1,2,7,10). The race result was 10 - 7. A nice $1 exacta payoff of $27.00. The net gain was ($27.00 - $12) $15.00.
Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. I decided not to bet this race.
[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]
On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. The exacta bet here was 1/ALL and ALL/1. 2B came on to beat 1 with an exacta payoff of $16.90 and a cost of ($5 + $5) $10.00. The net gain was $6.90.
In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The exacta bet was 4/ALL and ALL/4. The result was 4 - 6 for a nice exacta payoff of $34.30. The cost was $18.00. A very nice net gain of $16.30.
[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]
The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstreams leading rider brought the horse in for the win. The exacta bet was with the two favorites, 3 and 7 both at 8/5 odds at the 3m mark, 3,7/ALL. The $1 exacta paid $18.60. The cost was $14.00 so the net gain was $4.60.
Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was in conclusive and didn't show much so I didn't bet this race.
The total net gain for the exacta betting for the afternoon was ($5.60 + $3.20 + $15 + $6.90 + $16.30 + $4.60) $45.60. Not bad for $1 betting.
Note that the net gain for win betting was $15.80. Which type bet do you like?
'til the next article. Good luck and enjoy yourself.
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg .
In race 1 we do not bet since our analysis showed that any horse in the race could likely
win.
In race 2 the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the profit Line favorite at 9/5 was going to also be the tote pick. The exacta bet here was to bet the 3 horse (on top in the win position) along with the rest of the horses in the place position. The bet then is written 3/ALL. As a hedge, in case another horse beats the 3, we place the bet ALL/3. [In summary then the bet is 3/ALL and ALL/3.] The cost of this bet (assuming a $1 exacta bet) is $5 + $5 or $10. The result of this race was that the #1 horse beat out the #3 horse who placed. We won the bet with the hedge part of the bet. 1 - 3 was the finish order. The $1 exacta paid $15.60. A net gain of (15.60 - 10.00) $5.60.
I wrote in an earlier blog article, "One of My Favorite Trifecta Bets", that I liked this bet when the conditions were right. The conditions were right in this race. The tote analysis showed at the 3m mark that the #3 horse was at even odds (1/1) and the #4 horse was at 2/1. These two horses were solid favorites in the race. The trifecta bet then was 3,4/3,4/ALL. The race finished with 3-4-7. The $1 trifecta paid $13.20 and cost $10. This gave us a net gain of $3.20. The $1 exacta box of the two favorites paid $4.50 and cost $2.00, a net gain of $2.50.
[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]
The 4th race had four scratched horses. We don't pay as much attention to the M/L and P/L favorite with all these scratches. This is the kind of race where we pay attention to the tote analysis and where the money is coming into the betting. It can really pay off. At the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The exacta bet here is to use all 4 of these horses in an exacta box (1,2,7,10). The race result was 10 - 7. A nice $1 exacta payoff of $27.00. The net gain was ($27.00 - $12) $15.00.
Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. I decided not to bet this race.
[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]
On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. The exacta bet here was 1/ALL and ALL/1. 2B came on to beat 1 with an exacta payoff of $16.90 and a cost of ($5 + $5) $10.00. The net gain was $6.90.
In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The exacta bet was 4/ALL and ALL/4. The result was 4 - 6 for a nice exacta payoff of $34.30. The cost was $18.00. A very nice net gain of $16.30.
[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]
The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstreams leading rider brought the horse in for the win. The exacta bet was with the two favorites, 3 and 7 both at 8/5 odds at the 3m mark, 3,7/ALL. The $1 exacta paid $18.60. The cost was $14.00 so the net gain was $4.60.
Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was in conclusive and didn't show much so I didn't bet this race.
The total net gain for the exacta betting for the afternoon was ($5.60 + $3.20 + $15 + $6.90 + $16.30 + $4.60) $45.60. Not bad for $1 betting.
Note that the net gain for win betting was $15.80. Which type bet do you like?
'til the next article. Good luck and enjoy yourself.
Friday, January 25, 2008
A Day at the Track Using Tote Analysis
Yesterday (Thursday, January 24th) I went to my local track (Remington Park) and chose Gulfstream as the track to play for the day. I went for the purpose of writing this article for my blog and to give you some insight into toteboard analysis.
Before I went to the track I did some preparatory work in my notebook and wrote down the morning line (M/L) and Profit Line (P/L) for each horse in each race. After getting to the track I located a good seat where I could watch the toteboard and record the odds as they came up. Basically from the 20 minute (20m) mark to the 5 minute (5m) mark I recorded the odds on each horse at 5 minute intervals. This is simple enough to do provided you don't get distracted. At the 3 minute mark I would go to the betting machine (there are lots of them at the track) and place my bet. For instructional purposes I kept everything very simple. I would only make $2 win bets on any race. (I'm usually a bit more agressive than that.) In later articles I will demonstrate other kinds of bets, but not today.
Here is how things went for the day along with my thinking as we went from race to race. I have scanned my hand notes and furnish them for you so you can see what (I recorded and) what I was looking at before the race started.
[Tote analysis for races 1,2,and 3:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg ]
Race #1 was scheduled to go off at 1:15 Eastern time. At 12:45 I was ready to start recording. I started noting that at the 20m mark that the #2 horse and the #5 horse odds both got competitive with the rest of the horses all between 2/1 and 5/1. This pattern remained about the same right down to the 5m mark. I concluded that it appeared that any of the 5 horses could win. I decided to not bet (NB) this race. (There were 8 more races to go and with plenty of opportunities to choose from.)
Race # 2 was scheduled at 1:44. There were 6 entries in race 2. As I recorded at each 5m interval I could see that the number 3 horse (the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the Profit Line favorite at 9/5) was going to also be the tote pick. I bet $2 to win on the #3 horse. The result was that #3 came in to place. I lost this one. There's an old saying at the track "you can't win them all, but you can lose them all".
On to race #3. 7 horses in this race. After getting down to the 3m mark it is obvious that the M/L, P/L and tote pick point to the #3 horse. Glancing at the program I noticed that Elvis Truillo was riding #3. (He's one of the leading riders in Florida.) It looked like a solid bet. #3 did win and paid $4.20.
[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]
Race #4 has 10 horses. However, 4 horses were scratched. (4,5,8,9). We now had a 6 horse race. With so many scratches the race changes with the M/L and P/L having little significance any longer. As I began recording the odds I began to focus on 4 horses: 1,2,7,and 10. Why? Because at the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The #10 horse at the 5m mark was taking a lot of money. I bet the 10 horse to win. The horse won and paid a handsome $15.
Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. It was too inconclusive. I decided not to bet this race.
[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]
On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. I bet the #1 horse. 2b beat the 1 horse and I lost this one.
In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The horse won and paid $3.40.
[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]
The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstream's leading rider brought the horse in to win. #3 paid $5.20 to win.
Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was inconclusive and didn't show much, so I didn't bet this race.
For the afternoon $12 was bet and $27.80 was won for a net return of $15.80 for the afternoon.
You can see a table of the results at
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Results.jpg
Before I went to the track I did some preparatory work in my notebook and wrote down the morning line (M/L) and Profit Line (P/L) for each horse in each race. After getting to the track I located a good seat where I could watch the toteboard and record the odds as they came up. Basically from the 20 minute (20m) mark to the 5 minute (5m) mark I recorded the odds on each horse at 5 minute intervals. This is simple enough to do provided you don't get distracted. At the 3 minute mark I would go to the betting machine (there are lots of them at the track) and place my bet. For instructional purposes I kept everything very simple. I would only make $2 win bets on any race. (I'm usually a bit more agressive than that.) In later articles I will demonstrate other kinds of bets, but not today.
Here is how things went for the day along with my thinking as we went from race to race. I have scanned my hand notes and furnish them for you so you can see what (I recorded and) what I was looking at before the race started.
[Tote analysis for races 1,2,and 3:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races123.jpg ]
Race #1 was scheduled to go off at 1:15 Eastern time. At 12:45 I was ready to start recording. I started noting that at the 20m mark that the #2 horse and the #5 horse odds both got competitive with the rest of the horses all between 2/1 and 5/1. This pattern remained about the same right down to the 5m mark. I concluded that it appeared that any of the 5 horses could win. I decided to not bet (NB) this race. (There were 8 more races to go and with plenty of opportunities to choose from.)
Race # 2 was scheduled at 1:44. There were 6 entries in race 2. As I recorded at each 5m interval I could see that the number 3 horse (the morning line favorite at 9/5 as well as the Profit Line favorite at 9/5) was going to also be the tote pick. I bet $2 to win on the #3 horse. The result was that #3 came in to place. I lost this one. There's an old saying at the track "you can't win them all, but you can lose them all".
On to race #3. 7 horses in this race. After getting down to the 3m mark it is obvious that the M/L, P/L and tote pick point to the #3 horse. Glancing at the program I noticed that Elvis Truillo was riding #3. (He's one of the leading riders in Florida.) It looked like a solid bet. #3 did win and paid $4.20.
[Tote analysis for races 4 and 5:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races4and5.jpg ]
Race #4 has 10 horses. However, 4 horses were scratched. (4,5,8,9). We now had a 6 horse race. With so many scratches the race changes with the M/L and P/L having little significance any longer. As I began recording the odds I began to focus on 4 horses: 1,2,7,and 10. Why? Because at the 3m mark #1 had gone from (M/L) 9/5 down to 6/5. #2 went from 6 down to 7/2. #7 went from 9 down to 7/2. #10 went from 12 down to 7/2. I did a quick calculation in my head. Tote divided by M/L. For the 10 horse this was about .3 and anything below .3333 I like. The #10 horse at the 5m mark was taking a lot of money. I bet the 10 horse to win. The horse won and paid a handsome $15.
Race #5 had 3 scratches: 5, 8 and 10. Again we can ignore the M/L and P/L and concentrate on the toteboard. At the 3m mark no horse seemed to be taking a lot of money. It was too inconclusive. I decided not to bet this race.
[Tote analysis for races 6 and 7:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races6and7.jpg ]
On to race #6. Again 5 scratches this time including the favorite, the #6 horse. Among the six remaining horses the #1 horse was the tote pick. I bet the #1 horse. 2b beat the 1 horse and I lost this one.
In race #7 the #4 horse was a very strong pick. The horse won and paid $3.40.
[Tote analysis for races 8 and 9:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Races8and9.jpg ]
The quality race of the day, race #8, had a late scratch of the #1 horse. The tote and P/L pick was the #3 horse. John Velazquez, Gulfstream's leading rider brought the horse in to win. #3 paid $5.20 to win.
Race #9 had 1 scratched horse and ended up with 12 horses in the race. The tote analysis was inconclusive and didn't show much, so I didn't bet this race.
For the afternoon $12 was bet and $27.80 was won for a net return of $15.80 for the afternoon.
You can see a table of the results at
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/GulfstreamJan24Results.jpg
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
Where do I find horse statistics and handicapping information?
Fortunately there is a wonderful web site that provides this information. That web site is http://Equibase.com. There is so much on the site that I will just give you a sampling of what you can find.
I have been using Equibase for years to keep track of my favorite jockeys, trainers and horses. Every day I look in the section called "Who's in Today". This is where you can find your favorites. You can look for today, tommorrow, the next day, and by track. If you are betting online this allows you to home in on horses that you like and what race they will be in for that day.
Another feature is the "North American Racing Leaders". Here you can keep track of the top horses, jockeys, owners and trainers. They are listed by 'Leaders By Track', 'International Races', 'Top 100' and 'Top 10 All Time'. In addition they have Free and 'Pay For' products. These include: Race Entries, Race Programs, Expert Selections, Thoro-Graph Form Ratings, TrackMaster FlashNet, Daily Racing Form, Results, as well as Video Race Replays. As you can see you can get as sophisticated as you wish and are willing to spend.
Lastly, let me point out another feature especially for beginners. This is the 'FREE selection of the Day'.
If you are unaware of this site I think you will soon find it extremely useful and informative. Check it out.
I have been using Equibase for years to keep track of my favorite jockeys, trainers and horses. Every day I look in the section called "Who's in Today". This is where you can find your favorites. You can look for today, tommorrow, the next day, and by track. If you are betting online this allows you to home in on horses that you like and what race they will be in for that day.
Another feature is the "North American Racing Leaders". Here you can keep track of the top horses, jockeys, owners and trainers. They are listed by 'Leaders By Track', 'International Races', 'Top 100' and 'Top 10 All Time'. In addition they have Free and 'Pay For' products. These include: Race Entries, Race Programs, Expert Selections, Thoro-Graph Form Ratings, TrackMaster FlashNet, Daily Racing Form, Results, as well as Video Race Replays. As you can see you can get as sophisticated as you wish and are willing to spend.
Lastly, let me point out another feature especially for beginners. This is the 'FREE selection of the Day'.
If you are unaware of this site I think you will soon find it extremely useful and informative. Check it out.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
A Days Analysis at the Track
So many times a horseplayer goes to the track and at the end of the day he only knows he has less money in his pocket than what he went with. He doesn't really keep track of what happened that day. It may be just a blurr in his mind. I'm going to go through a little exercise that can give some control and insight into your betting.
I've started as simple as possible with just the win bet. I'll also pick a track and the complete card (all the races) for the day. I'll also choose the M/L (morning line) favorite for my pick in each race. (This is to keep things simple.) First, there is no way to tell which races that the M/L favorite will win so we must bet the M/L favorite in each race. Again, just for simplicity let's just assume we place a $2 to win bet on the M/L favorite in each race.
I have arbitarily picked Turfway Park on the 9th of January to analyze. Here is the analysis at the end of the day. Click here:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/TurfwayWedJan9MLpicks.jpg
Note that the cost of our bets was $18 (that's $2 X 9 races). Note that the M/L favorite won in races 1, 4, and 8. Our winnings were $15.40. So we lost $2.60 for the day with this strategy.
As an alternative to the M/L I have also done an analysis using the P/L (Profit Line) that is available to you with a Twinspires account (http://twinspires.com/). Click on http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/TurfwayWedJan9PLpicks.jpg
to see what the P/L picks were for the same day. Note that the P/L pick won in races 1,2,4 and 6. Again note that the cost of betting the P/L pick in each race is $18. However, the winnings amounted to $25 so the net winnings for the day was $7.
What does this analysis tell us? First, we know where we stand at the end of the day. Secondly we are adding some discipline to our betting strategy. We also gain some insight into the lack of rewards of going with the M/L favorite all the time. I also picked a slight variation with the P/L picks to show how sensitive your betting can be. It may be the difference between winning and losing for the day. This should in no way convince you that the P/L will always produce better results. (This would need to be tested over a long period of time. I've been working on this.) However, it does show the sensitivity of outcomes depending on how you bet. This is what I am trying to illustrate here. I am also trying to show you how to raise your level of awareness in your own betting.
May luck always be with you 'til next time.
I've started as simple as possible with just the win bet. I'll also pick a track and the complete card (all the races) for the day. I'll also choose the M/L (morning line) favorite for my pick in each race. (This is to keep things simple.) First, there is no way to tell which races that the M/L favorite will win so we must bet the M/L favorite in each race. Again, just for simplicity let's just assume we place a $2 to win bet on the M/L favorite in each race.
I have arbitarily picked Turfway Park on the 9th of January to analyze. Here is the analysis at the end of the day. Click here:
http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/TurfwayWedJan9MLpicks.jpg
Note that the cost of our bets was $18 (that's $2 X 9 races). Note that the M/L favorite won in races 1, 4, and 8. Our winnings were $15.40. So we lost $2.60 for the day with this strategy.
As an alternative to the M/L I have also done an analysis using the P/L (Profit Line) that is available to you with a Twinspires account (http://twinspires.com/). Click on http://billwinters.org/BillsBlog/TurfwayWedJan9PLpicks.jpg
to see what the P/L picks were for the same day. Note that the P/L pick won in races 1,2,4 and 6. Again note that the cost of betting the P/L pick in each race is $18. However, the winnings amounted to $25 so the net winnings for the day was $7.
What does this analysis tell us? First, we know where we stand at the end of the day. Secondly we are adding some discipline to our betting strategy. We also gain some insight into the lack of rewards of going with the M/L favorite all the time. I also picked a slight variation with the P/L picks to show how sensitive your betting can be. It may be the difference between winning and losing for the day. This should in no way convince you that the P/L will always produce better results. (This would need to be tested over a long period of time. I've been working on this.) However, it does show the sensitivity of outcomes depending on how you bet. This is what I am trying to illustrate here. I am also trying to show you how to raise your level of awareness in your own betting.
May luck always be with you 'til next time.
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Where to Find Free Picks
One of the questions I am asked the most is: Where do I find free picks on the internet?Indeed an interesting question. Right now (01/05/08) there are a number of tracks having live racing. Some of the most popular tracks are: Calder, Santa Anita, Fairgrounds, Aqueduct, Turfway, Laurel, and Hawthorne.
One of the first places to look is Eponies at http://www.e-ponies.com/racingpicks.htm . There are free picks at Eponies for all the tracks except the Fairgrounds. If you want free picks at the Fairgrounds you can go to the Fairgrounds web site ( http://www.fairgroundsracecourse.com/ ) and Jessica Pacheco has free picks for you.
A second place to look is at the web site for the track you're interested in. For example, if you go to Calder ( http://www.calderracecourse.com/ ) under "Racing information/Handicapping" you will find free picks by Ron Nicoletti, an excellent handicapper with a 34% win percentage. He is dynamite with all Florida tracks.
At Santa Anita ( http://www.santaanita.com/ ) select Racing Information/Handicapping. You have your choice of "House Handicap" or "DRF Handicap".
At Aqueduct, http://www.drf.com/nyra/nyra.html , there is Dave Litfin's Race Analysis.
Here are the links to Turfway, Laurel, and Hawthorne:(Hint: look under "Racing Information/ Handicapping".)
Turfway http://www.turfway.com/
Laurel http://www.laurelpark.com/
Hawthorne http://www.hawthorneracecourse.com/
Free picks are just fine but remember to do some handicapping on your own. Nothing is "free" if you lose the bet. Free picks should be just your starting point. (Money management hint: keep bad bets to a minimum.)
Good luck and have fun.
One of the first places to look is Eponies at http://www.e-ponies.com/racingpicks.htm . There are free picks at Eponies for all the tracks except the Fairgrounds. If you want free picks at the Fairgrounds you can go to the Fairgrounds web site ( http://www.fairgroundsracecourse.com/ ) and Jessica Pacheco has free picks for you.
A second place to look is at the web site for the track you're interested in. For example, if you go to Calder ( http://www.calderracecourse.com/ ) under "Racing information/Handicapping" you will find free picks by Ron Nicoletti, an excellent handicapper with a 34% win percentage. He is dynamite with all Florida tracks.
At Santa Anita ( http://www.santaanita.com/ ) select Racing Information/Handicapping. You have your choice of "House Handicap" or "DRF Handicap".
At Aqueduct, http://www.drf.com/nyra/nyra.html , there is Dave Litfin's Race Analysis.
Here are the links to Turfway, Laurel, and Hawthorne:(Hint: look under "Racing Information/ Handicapping".)
Turfway http://www.turfway.com/
Laurel http://www.laurelpark.com/
Hawthorne http://www.hawthorneracecourse.com/
Free picks are just fine but remember to do some handicapping on your own. Nothing is "free" if you lose the bet. Free picks should be just your starting point. (Money management hint: keep bad bets to a minimum.)
Good luck and have fun.
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