Sunday, June 15, 2008

Pick 3 Aberrations

As you know from my previous blog I have been testing new strategies using the pick 3. In this article I want to show you two extreme aberrations that have occurred in the course of a week; the Belmont Stakes on June 7th and high profile races at Churchill Downs on June 14th. Since writing my last blog "Pick 3 Research" I have been concentrating on pick 3 strategies that locate races where the favorite has a high probablility of winning. A race that had one of the highest probabilities of winning was the Belmont Stakes. Big Brown was a certain winner if there ever was one. (I was not alone in this assessment.) It was almost certain until the race was run. Probabilities are just probabilities, no matter how high they are and nothing more. Anything can happen in a race and it did.

As a strategy that I was testing on June 7th I chose to arrange three pick 3 bets using Big Brown to win in the 11th race. The first pick 3 started in race 9, the second started in the 10th, and the third started in the 11th race. Here is a case where all three bets lost with Big Brown losing in the 11th. What is the lesson to be learned from this. The outcome in one race can affect several other bets. Betting across races can be very costly even with smaller amounts of money. Also you have to wait until the races in the bet are completed to know whether you have a winning ticket. Betting within a race has more immediate gratification. This experience has given me insight into aberrations that can occur in strategies that sometimes are overlooked.

On June 14th, a week later, I experienced a new and highly improbable aberration at Churchill Downs. I saw before my eyes 6 morning line favorites win 6 consecutive races. These races also happened to be the 6 races in the pick 6. The probability of this happening is very very small. Starting with the 6th race there were 4 consecutive pick 3's that had 3 favorites in the outcome. The probability of this happening is .03.

Let me summarize the results for both weekends. On Belmont Stakes day there was no ticket that hit the pick 6. It carried over to the following Wednesday. The horseplaying public could not visualize Big Brown losing. (That included me!) However, there were some pick 3 and pick 4 players who won on the pick 3 starting in the 9th race, $6,475.00, and $34,287.00 on the pick 4 that started in the 8th race. Because of the cost factor being lower there were long shots (infact, the longest on the board) included in the pick 3 and pick 4 combinations for race 11. On June 14th at Churchill Downs the morning line favorites Hystericalady, Pure Clan, Pyro, Tizdejavu, Curlin, and Dreaming of Anna were the winning picks in the pick 6 which paid $48.00. The $2 pick 3's starting with race 6 paid $14.60, 47.00, 31.80, 19.40 respectively.

What a difference a week makes in the extremes of horse racing. Stay tuned for results of my research.

'til then.