Wednesday, October 3, 2012

2012 Breeders Cup Races Fast Approaching

The 2012 Breeders Cup Races are fast approaching.  These races have the horses that are the cream of the crop - they are the best of the best.  This fact alone means that any horse in the race can win thus handicapping is, to say the least, very difficult.

 I have kept a very detail set of notes and empirical statistics from the 2011 BC races.  It's many times very informative to see what happened last year.  It should be noted that what happens this year may be very different than what happened last year, however, knowing the potential possibility of long shots winning in any race is a very important part of your wagering strategy.

Let me summarize last year's results and point out some of the interesting things that happened.  In the 2011 BC races out of 9 races there was only one race where the favorite won.  It was not a day to bet favorites.  All 9 races had 9 or more horses in each race, some had 14.  The favorite that did win was in the 6th race the BC Turf Sprint.  Corey Nakatani rode Regally Ready for the win.  A morning line 3/1 odds favorite that paid $6.60 to win. All the other races were won by long shots and in two of the races they were very long shots, 30/1 morning line.  These two races had Black Swan long shots that won.  They were races 3 and 10. Race 3 was the BC Marathon, a 17 furlong race won by Afleet Again and ridden by Corneilio Velasquez and paid for a $2 win bet $85.20.  Race 10 was the BC Mile.  It was won by another 30/1 morning line horse.  Jon Court rode Court Vision for the win and a $2 bet paid $131.60.

Although race 2 was not one of the Breeders Cup races, Hall of Fame Jockey Mike Smith won 3 races: races 2, 5, and 11. Mike won race 5, the BC Turf Sprint, aboard Amazombie a 5/1 morning line that paid $17.80.  He also won race 11 the BC Classic riding Drosselmeyer, a 15/1 morning line that paid $31.60 to win.

The Europeans won 2 races.  Race 4 was the BC Juvenile Turf.  Ryan Moore rode Wrote a 12/1 morning line for the win that paid $25.50.  Race 8 was the BC Turf.  J. O'Brien rode St Nicholas Abbey, a 9/2 morning line, for the win which paid $15.60.

Being from Oklahoma where Donnie Von Hemel has won the training title numerous times at Remington Park, race 7 was particularly impressive to me because Caleb's Posse came roaring to the finish to win.  Donnie was the horse's trainer and the horse was owned by Oklahoman Don McNeill.  The horse was named for Don McNeill's grandson.  Don McNeill was unable to be there because he is suffering from leukemia.  Race 7 was the BC Dirt Mile.  Caleb's Posse was ridden by Rajiv Maragh and paid $15.60 to win.

Race 9 was the BC Juvenile.  Ramon Dominguez rode Hansen to the win over Union Rags and paid $16.20 for the win.

Here are the summary of results in order by race with race number, morning line, and $2 win payoff.

Race 3 30/1 $85.20, Race 4 12/1 $25.50, Race 5 5/1  $17.80, Race 6 3/1 $6.60, Race 7 5/1 $17.80, Race 8 9/2 $15.60, Race 9  10/1 $16.20,  Race 10 30/1 $131.60, Race 11 15/1 $31.60

Let's look at some "what if you had" situations.

If you rank the morning lines odds for each race from lowest to highest odds here is one way to look at the results.  Associate ML1 with the morning line favorite,  ML2 is the second morning line favorite, ML5 is the 5th morning line favorite, etc.  If you had bet $2 to win on ML1,ML2,ML3,ML4,ML5 that would be a $10 bet in each race. You would have won in races 5,6,7,8,9 for a total of $74.00. Since you don't know which races will win you have to bet all nine races.  The cost for all 9 races would have been $90.00.  A loss of $16.  About 60% of the time ML1 to ML5 do win.

Instead, 'What if ' you had bet $2 win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 for those races with 10 or more horses in the race.  In the races with 10 to 14 horses in the race which would include races 3,4,6,9,10,11 if you had bet $2 to win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 you would have won the 3rd and the 10th race.  The 3rd paid $85.20 and the 10th paid $131.60.  Actually you would have bet ML10,ML11 a $4 bet on race 3.  You would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 a $10 bet on race 4.  On race 6 you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 an $8 bet. Race 9 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 another $8 bet. Race 10 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 again another $8 bet.  In Race 11 you would have bet another $8 on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13.  This was a total of $42 to win ($85.20 + $131.60 =) $216.80.

Now 'what if' you had "bet 'em all"  in each race with a $2 win bet, how would you have made out?  Well as it turns out it would have cost you $206.00.  You would have won $347.90. A Return On Investment (ROI) of 69%.  If you look at my previous article on my blog you would see that under the proper circumstances with 'wide open races' and 'very high class horses', this is not a bad strategy and can be quite profitable.

Good luck and have fun this year on November 3rd.