Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Rolling $.50 Pick 3's

Continuing with the theme of "Better Payoffs from Exotics", let's look at pick 3's. They have become very popular at most tracks. In a way they are just a continuation of doubles. You will have to look at the particular track to see which races have pick 3's. You will also have to see what the minimums are for the pick 3's because a very popular minimum is $.50 although some tracks still have $1 minimums. The next thing to look for is rolling pick 3's. Like rolling doubles, rolling pick 3's are what were looking for. This gives us the opportunity to make more bets on a day's card.

Strategy #3: For race n,  n+1, n+2: (ML1, ML3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+2

 If we piggy back on my previous article where we showed that ML1 and ML3 both win about 30% of the time then a high return (but low cost) bet for Strategy #3 becomes for race n,  n+1, n+2: (ML1, ML3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1   WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+2.  For example if n=1 then the bet would be (ML1, ML3) race 1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 2 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 3.  Further if ML1=horse 3 and ML3=horse 7 in race 1 and ML1= horse 8 and ML3= horse 2 in race 2  and ML1= horse 5 and ML3= horse 6 in race 3 then (using a) $.50 bet would be a $.50 pick 3 in race 1: 3,7 WITH 8,2 WITH 5,6 .  This would cost $4 [(2 x 2 x2)/2].

Caveat Emptor:

Having studied each of the races on a day's card, there are usually 8, 9, or 10 races per day on a card at a track.  My empirical statistics have shown that some races work better than others for strategy #3 above.  I will break the races into two categories: #1 'the race follows the form most of the time' and #2 'the race that tends to be wide open'.  The races that tend to 'follow the form' are 1,2,3,7,8,and 9.  Races 4,5,and 6 tend to be 'wide open'.  I have found that using strategy #3 with races 4,5, and 6 are losing bets a large percentage of time.  Strategy #3 seems to be quite profitable with races 1,2,3,7,and 8.  Always look at races 4,5,and 6 very closely, particulary if there are over 10 horses in the race.  In fact be leery of any race on the card with over 10 horses in the race. Strategy #3 should not be used indiscriminately. 'Wide open' races are purposefully carded with lots of horses (>10) to make the race more difficult.