Friday, November 1, 2013

Where do you look for likely signs that a potential long shot could win in a horse race?

Let me enumerate 9 possibilities below.

1 In a race there should be horses with toteboard odds of at least 10/1 in the race.

2 When the favorite tote horse in the race is less than even odds.  The smaller the odds of the favorite the better.  Remember that the statistical odds of the favorite winning is 1 in 3 or about a third of the time.  Two thirds of the time one of the horses other than the favorite will win.

3 When at least one half of the horses in the race are going off at 10/1 odds or  greater.

4 Always consider the last race of the day on the card.  This is especially true if there are more than 10 horses in the race.

5 The last race in a pick 4,5 or 6.  Many times the last race is a spoiler.

6 A Grade I, II or III race with 10 or more horses.  Most of the time because these are the highest quality horses that any horse in the race on his best day could potentially win.

7 A stakes race with 10 or more horses.

8 Any Breeders Cup race with 10 or more horses.

9 The Kentucky Derby.