The Hedge Bet for the Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby 2019 was highly unusual and the outcome was very disappointing to tens of thousands of fans at Churchill Downs on Saturday May 4th.  At first after the race was over it looked as Maximum Security #7 was the winner.  The jockey, the trainer and the fans were celebrating.  Then the stewards took an unusually long look at the last part of the race.  It seemed like forever but finally the stewards came to a decision.  They disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th.  The decision was made to disqualify Maximum Security for interference with War of Will #1 and the chain reaction with Bodepress #21 and Long Range Toddy #18.  Country House #20 who came in second was delared the winner, #13 Code of Honor who was third became the place horse and #8 Tacitus coming in fourth became the show horse.  This is the first time in Kentucky Derby history that such an outcome like this has ever occured.

If Maximum Security was left as the winner there probably would have been no Kentucky Derby controversy.

I want to illustrate and explain how my Kentucky Derby bets were structured this year so let me refer back to the article "A Different Betting Strategy"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-different-betting-strategy.html

on my blog that was published on August 25, 2012.  I showed in this article that it can be very profitable in certain wide open races that betting all the horses in the race makes sense.  Infact it can be a very good hedge bet.  The last paragraph in this 2012 article is the following:

The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a  judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.

I bet the Kentucky Derby each year with $100 to $200 in bets.  My hedge bet each year is to bet all the horses to win.  I usually have one or more superfecta bets, trifecta and exacta bets along with my hedge bet.  This year here were my bets.

$1 superfecta 16/5,17/5,8,17/5,7,8,10,13,14,17  cost $20
$2 Win/Place/Show 7  cost $6
$5 Win 5, 6, 7, 8  cost $20
$1 exacta box 7, 8, 16  cost $6
$1 exacta box 5, 7, 8   cost $6
$1 exacta box 5, 16, 17  cost $6
$1 exacta box 5, 7, 8, 16  cost $20
$2 Win/Place/Show 5, 6, 10, 16, 17 $30
$2 Win All  cost $38

I felt that Bob Baffert had three horses 16, 17, 5 in the derby so my superfecta, exacta and win, place and show bets were structured around these 3 horses.  I had Maximum Security #7 to win, place and show as well as in several exacta box bets.  The total cost of my bets was $152.  When the outcome was finally declared my hedge bet had #20 Country House as the winner and paid $132.40.  All of my other bets were worthless, however I ended the race only down $19.60.