Wednesday, September 18, 2013

How to Structure a 10-cent Superfecta - for Fun and Profit

Many of my friends have asked me for a simple but effective approach to structuring a 10-cent superfecta.  Let me keep it as simple as possible and at the same time show the cost of the approach.

Since there are four positions that you have to decide on I just write down 1,2,3,4 (win,place,show,4th).  Starting with position 1, the win position, I look at all the horses in the race and determine the horses by post position that have the best chance of winning.  It could be just one horse or two horses or in some instances all the horses in the race.  For arguments sake, let's assume I can decide on one horse, say, the number 5 horse.

So for
Position 1: #5

Next, we look at position 2, the place position.  We scan through all the horses again and decide on our selections.  For example, let's say I believe
 there are 4 horses that have the best chance to place.  For example, 1,4,6,10.

So now we have
Position 1: #5
Position 2: #1, #4, #6, #10

To come up with the place position selections you can use many factors to help you decide.  Here are a few factors for those of you just starting out to consider: morning line, profit line, DRF last 4 races, jockey, trainer, owner, pedigree and tip sheets.

Positions 3 and 4 are simply the hardest to figure out so I like to bet all of the horses in the race for those positions. Taking this approach the cost of the bet may be a determining factor so let's look at this.

Our bet now is

Position 1: #5
Position 2: #1, #4, #6, #10
Position 3: ALL
Position 4: ALL

Depending on the number of horses (ALL) in the race a 10-cent superfecta will cost

#Horses  Cost
   7     $8.00
   8     $12.00
   9     $16.80
  10     $22.40
  11     $28.80
  12     $36.00