Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Superfectas are Popular

I recently ran a poll on my blog for a couple of months asking the question: "What bet returns you the most money?" As I had expected superfectas are very popular. I talk with other horse bettors at my local track and they are crazy about 10-cent superfectas because of their low cost and high return potential. They can construct with almost reckless abandon superfecta combinations that seem ridiculous but can often times be winning tickets and pay fantastic returns.

This was not a scientific poll but the folks who visit my blog are interested in betting on the horses and therefore their opinions are significant. Here's how the results from the poll came out. The bet that returns the most money is the superfecta with 32%. In the second spot is the trifecta with 18%. In the third spot is the win bet with 16%. The quinella and exacta both with 8% each. The pick6 had 10%. It's interesting to note that about 80% of the bets that make the most money for the bettor are exotic bets.

I want to thank those who participated in the poll. With your participation it gives all of us an idea of what bets to try. Good luck to each of you.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Using the Profit Line

If you have a Twinspires account you are probably familiar with the Profit Line (PL). It is a tool provided by Twinspires for its account holders. I have used it alot and found it very useful.

As many of you may know my home track is Remington Park. This meet I have been concentrating on pick3's and pick4's. I have used the profit line (PL) to my advantage in making my pick3 and pick4 selections. Being a statistician by profession (although retired now) I like to keep track of my bets and the corresponding results. I have put together for 34 racing days so far this meet a chart of my findings
( ). My chart has the PL positions from most favorite to least favorite along the top and the race number down the side. Keeping track of the winning PL position in each race here are my findings.

Remington Park (RP) has rolling pick3's starting with race 3 through race 7. Most of the time RP has 9 races on the card each racing day. Sometimes there are 10 races when special days have stakes races. In this case the pick4 will be races 7-10. Otherwise, the pick4 is races 6-9.

I kept track each race day from August 22 to October 26 in this study. Here is a summary of my results. It appears that race 5 is the most difficult because you have to go 5 deep in the PL on most days to find a winner. Races 3,7 and 8 can be singled on many days with success using the top PL choice. Using my results here is the pattern for the pick3 bet starting with race 3 PL1/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 (THESE ARE PROFIT LINE CHOICES). For a $1 pick3 this is a $15 bet. Getting past race 3 occurs about 50% of the time. In race 4 the PL choices PL1,PL2,PL3 win about 70% of the time. In race 5 the PL choice PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 will win about 80% of the time. In summary then if you were to bet this pick3 each day then one half of the time you will get past race 3 which is the first step necessary for the bet to win and pay off. The five pick3 combinations starting with race 3 and going through race 7 are as follows:

Race 3 PL1/PL1,PL2,PL3/ PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5 cost $15

Race 4 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5/PL1,PL2,PL3 cost $45

Race 5 PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1 cost $15

Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1/PL1 cost $6 (assume a $2 pick3)

Race 7 PL1/PL2/PL1,PL2 cost $4 (assume a $2 pick3)

My two pick4's bets in race 6 are:

Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1/PL1/PL1,PL2 cost $12 (assume a $2 pick4)

Race 6 PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2,PL3/PL1,PL2 cost $54 (assume a $1 pick4)

Depending on your bankroll you can use as many of these as you choose or limit the number of pick3's you bet on to stay within the cost constraints of your bankroll.