What makes Exotic Bets so interesting?

What makes exotic bets so interesting? 
1 - You can determine the upper limit on the number of combinations in the bet.
2 - You can determine the number of combinations in your particular bet.
3 - By examples I will try to show you how realistic the chances are of winning certain exotic bets.
Let's take a simple example.  In a particular race you have the number of horses in that race. Say 8 horses (for example).  If you are betting an exacta in this race and let's assume you decide to bet 1,2 with 3,4,5.  The number of combinations is six.  They are 13, 14, 15, 23, 24, 25.  With 8 horses in the race the upper limit is 8x7 or 56 total possible combinations (box 8 horses).  The probability of winning is 6/56 or 0.10714285.  Therefore you have approximately a 10.7% chance of winning. (This assumes you give each horse an equal chance of winning.)  Fortunately or unfortunately there is a toteboard that gives you an indication of where the money is being bet.  Statistics have shown that the toteboard favorite only wins 1/3 of the time so you have to be careful when using favorites.  Together with the low payoffs using only favorites your return to cover any of your losses will only put you in an overall losing situation.  So let's try to see what spending more money on your bet will do for you in terms of a higher probability of winning.  In the same example using 8 horses in the race, let's say your bet is to box 4 horses.  Let's randomly chose say, 1 3 6 8.  To box these four you now have 4x3 or 12 combinations working for you.  A $1 exacta box will cost you $12.  Now the probability of winning rises to 12/56 or 0.21428571.  A 21.4% chance of winning.  Now rather than randomly picking 4  horses to box, let's say you chose the lowest 4 morning line favorites to box.  You are now using the top horses that the track handicapper is picking in his morning line picks.  This will also be the lowest payoff.  So what can be done to improve your chances of winning.  Let's change the bet a bit.  Let's look to see what the morning line favorite is and also what the toteboard favorite is.  If they are the same horse then both the morning line handicapper and the money bet are on this horse.  So let's change the bet to (Morning Line Favorite) MLF/ALL horses (assuming MLF is both the tote pick and the morningline favorite).  With 8 horses in the race and assuming a $1 exacta bet the cost would be $7.  Now if MLF wins the race then you have won the exacta bet.  The payoff will now depend on final tote odds of the second place finisher. Suppose MLF does not win but is beaten by one of the 7 other horses.   You could hedge your bet with another $7 bet.  This bet could have
even a better payoff.  Bet ALL/MLF.  This bet will be a winning bet if MLF comes in second or places. On your original bet MLF/ALL, you will get the least return if the horse that comes in second is the second favorite.  You will make the most money when the highest odd horse comes in second.

Taking this to a higher level let's look at a trifecta bet.  In our example let's again use 8 horses in the race.  Calculating the upper limit (possible) of combinations to win the bet, we have 8 x 7 x 6 or 336 ways a trifecta bet can be won.  Note that there are 6 times (336) as many combinations compared to the exacta bet (56).  Consider an example trifecta bet 1 2 / 3 4 5 / 3 4 5 .  This bet will cover (2 x 3 x 2) = 12 combinations out of the possible 336 for a trifecta bet. There is 12/336 = 0.036 or 3.6% chance of winning this bet assuming all of the horses in the race have an equal chance of winning.  If we change our bet so we have a much greater chance of winning the bet, let's make the $1 trifecta
bet 1 2 / ALL / ALL.  How does this improve our chances?  We have 2 x 8 x 7 = 112.  So 112/336 = 0.3333 or 1/3 chance of winning.  Depending on how good your horse pick 1 and 2 are, the only way you can lose the bet is if neither the 1 or 2 horse win the race.  Now to just place this bet it will cost you $112. If the cost of this bet is way too much for you to risk some tracks have a minimum trifecta bet of $0.50.  This would cost you $56. The question then becomes do you want to spend $56 on this bet?  The chance of winning the bet are much better but even if you win the bet, the payoff may be so small that you lose money even when you win the bet.  One way to get the size of the bet, that you can live with, is to start using the morning line (ML) picks and the toteboard picks with the top ML picks.  Let's use the notation ML1, ML2, ML3, etc.  ML1 represents the morning line favorite.  ML2 represents the 2nd morning line favorite.  ML3 represents the 3rd morning line favorite and so on.
The ranking here is lowest odds to highest.   If we box (ML1,ML2,ML3) and make it a $1 trifecta then it will cost 3 x 2 x 1 = $6.  Putting an upper limit of say, $24, that you're willing to spend on the bet you could even for a $1 trifecta bet, box four horses (ML1,ML2,ML3,ML4).  The cost of this bet is 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = $24.  Many tracks now have $0.50 trifectas.  This $0.50 trifecta would cost you $12.

Going one step further to a superfecta and again assuming just 8 horses in the race we have 8 x 7 x 6 x 5  = 1680 combinations. If we just box 4 horses in the superfecta we have 4 x 3 x 2 x 1  = 24 out of 1680 covered in the bet.  Assuming all the horses have an equal chance of winning (24/1680 = 0.0143) there is just a little over 1% chance of winning the bet.  That's not very good odds.  Fortunately there are $0.10 superfectas so the cost would be $2.40 if you made the bet.  Using $0.10 superfectas you can get alot more combinations for a cost of the bet in a range that will not break your bankroll.

Summary of steps to go further.
1) Take into account the total combinations for an exotic bet.  This will depend on the number of horses in the race.
2) With a particular bet calculate how many combinations are covered by the bet.
3) Take into account various handicapping factors.
   a - The jockey-trainer factor.
   b - The toteboard factor that is, where the money is being bet.
   c - Any heavy favorites.
   d - Look for longshot possibilities.
   e - If you have a Twinspires account (twinspires.com), take into account the 'profit line' rankings for the race.
   f - The number of horses in the race.
4) Consider stacking bets on the race (exacta, trifecta, superfecta).
5) In high quality races, GI, GII, and GIII races "bet them all" may be a good strategy.
6) Consider when to bet just high odd horses either with a win bet or an exotic bet.
7) Here is a special $1 superfecta bet I sometimes use with high powered races.  It's a $20 bet.  It's has paid off  big a number of times for me. Some notation I will use to describe this bet is as follows.  PL will refer to the    "profit line".  You have this available to you when you have a Twinspires account.  Here's the bet with 8 or more horses in the race.

   Notation: PL = Profit Line pick (from Twinspires.com)

   PL1/PL2 PL3/PL2 PL3 PL4/PL2 PL3 PL4 PL5 PL6 PL7 PL8

When the Unexpected Happens

I was at the race track watching the tote board for the 8th race at Finger Lakes on Tuesday, August 9th 2016.  From the beginning the #3 horse was the heavy favorite.  In fact, about 5 minutes to post time the tote odds were as low as 1/9.  You can't get any lower than that. All the the "win money" was on the #3 horse. This looked like a good place to play some exotics with the 3 horse on top.  This was an allowance race with 6 horses in the race.  What was interesting was that 5 of the 6 horses were at double digit odds right up to 1 minute to post time.  In fact 3 of the horses were more than 20/1 and one of the horses was 40/1.  This really made the favorite a "shoe in" according to the betting public on the tote board.

Sometimes when something like this looks too good to be true.  Guess what?  The unexpected happens.  From my past experience I have observed that many times, in fact, quite often this heavy favorite gets beat.  So along with exotics that use the heavy favorite in the win position it is worth while placing some hedge bets also.

Here are the final toteboard odds.

Horse 1 15/1
Horse 2 12/1
Horse 3 3/5
Horse 4 4/1
Horse 5 3/1
Horse 6 30/1

Here are the bets I made including hedge bets.

$2 exacta 3/1,2,4,5,6 (Cost: $10)
Hedge bets:
$2 exacta 3,4,5/1,2,6 (Cost: $18)
$1 trifecta 3,4,5/1,2,6/3,4,5 (Cost: $18)
$1 superfecta 3,4,5/1,2,6/3,4,5/1,2,6 (Cost: $36)

Total cost: $82

Here's how the race turned out, the race result. 4-6-3-1

The payouts for this race:

$2 exacta 4-6 paid: $185.00
$1 trifecta 4-6-3 paid: $259.50
$1 superfecta paid: $980.00
Total payout: $1424.50

To verify these results go to Equibase.com. Then go to results for Finger Lakes. Select August 9,2016 and race #8.

Wow, when the unexpected happens!  And with just 6 horses in the race.

Building Exactas through Elimination

In our last blog article we presented "The Process of Elimination" for the win bet.  Now let's look at how to build exactas through elimination.

We need to ask two questions.  Which horses in the current race can't win (in your opinion)?  Which horses in the current race can't come in 1st or 2nd (in your opinion)?

Let us assume (for example) there are 10 horses in this race.  Now let's look at all 10 horses one at a time keeping the two questions in mind.  In your opinion you conclude that all but 2 and 5 can't win. Next you conclude that all but 2,5,1,8,9,10 can't come in 2nd.  You can now construct your exacta as 2,5/2,5,1,8,9,10.  Note that we have eliminated 3,4,6,7 from our bet.  As a $1 exacta bet it will cost $10.

How does the elimination process differ from just picking the horses directly?  The elimination process  forces you to look at each horse and to eliminate horses one by one.  If you don't look at each horse in this way you may miss a horse with great potential.  When you overlook a horse like this you've let your ego override your logic when you exercise your opinion.  Spending the time to go through the elimination process can payoff with better constructed exactas and more winning bets.

Take the extra time and try it.

The Process of Elimination

Let's take a look at why all horses in a race are bet on.  Someone has a belief that a particular horse could win or possibly be in the money.  Every owner and/or trainer puts a horse in a race and has some reason or reasons to believe that his horse can win or be in the money.  There are odds associated with all horses in a race.  Every horse has been placed in a race for some reason.

For the horseplayer, what part do emotions play?  What happens when there is so much confidence in a horse that the toteboard is bid down to very low odds?  What is a "live" horse in the horseplayers lingo?  Is this not a horse that the trainer has gotten ready to win and that trainer is often very effective in doing this?

Is it possible to place a bet (and win) without knowing the answers to all of the above?  Let's start with the most basic of bets, the win bet. Suppose you place a $2 win bet on each of the horses in the race.  If you bet 'um all on one ticket your ticket is a winning ticket.  Depending on the final odds of the horse that won, you either made money or lost money on that ticket.  So it is possible.

Continuing with this logic, let's determine which horses are the least likely to win the race.  This is kind of a reverse engineering type of strategy.  Every horseplayer has an opinion about whether a particular horse could win the race. So use your opinion and rank the horses from least likely to most likely to win the race.  Now rather than betting 'um all remove the horses that you feel can't win (in your opinion) and only bet the horses that are left.  Maybe there are 5 horses left.  Or possibly 4, or 3 or 2.  If you are right in your judgment you have a winning ticket and have increased the  amount of money you have won.  This essentially is the process of elimination.

Try it and see how it works for you.

Your biggest lessons come from your losses.

I have learned the hard way time and again over the years.  I didn't have confidence in my bet.  Yet, I placed the bet anyway.  Those two sentences have cost me more money in my  career than anything else.  If I could learn from my mistakes, hopefully I wouldn't do it again.  Easy to say but hard to do.  I break my own rules. And that is what gives me my loses.  This is entirely avoidable.

The trouble with 'confidence' is awareness of yourself.  You might think I'm being hard on myself here.  The thing is, you need to be hard on yourself about your mistakes, so you don't repeat them. This is real money we're talking about, after all - it's your money.

I am not smarter than the horses running the race. None of us are. So for optimal results, I know that I need to wait for the "confidence" that I am right about my bet. The simplest, clearest way to do that is to be aware of your own confidence level and wait until you "feel" right about the bet.  Otherwise, don't place the bet.  That is the hardest thing in the world to do.

Learn from your losses when you have them.  Be hard on yourself about your losses. Figure out why they happened so you can prevent them from happening again. Doing this will make you into the best bettor you can be.

To bet or not to bet?

There is a saying in poker: know when to hold'em and when to fold'em.  This is just as true in betting on horses.  Know when to bet and when not to bet.  This rule of success is easy to say but hard to follow.

Always remember: your winning bets have to absorb your losing bets.  Losing bets put you in a hole.  If in doubt about a bet, don't bet.  A weakness in betting is betting too much and too frequently.  It's not easy to keep from betting especially if you are the type of person that enjoys the action.  This can be your downfall.  Establish a goal for yourself in betting.  One such goal might be "be a winner at the end of the day".  What does this mean?  It means that you have more money at the end of the day than when you started.

Okay but how do I do this?
First, you have to want to be a winner.
Second, only place bets that you have a high level of confidence in. If in doubt, don't bet.
Third, know when to not bet a race.  (Too many horses could win the race.)
Fourth, know when to stop and declare the "end of the day".  (If you're really ahead before the "end of the day" QUIT betting and keep your profits.)

If you think about it the only way to be a winner: "you must stop at some point when you are ahead".  There is no other way.

Don't Recycle Your Winnings

Everyone wants to come out ahead when the races are over and you are through betting for the day.  The truth of the matter is that for the majority of horse players this is not the case.  I have been friends with many horse players for the last 30 years plus.  My observations have been that most people who play the horses lose money the majority of time.  It's kind of like fishing.  Most of the time you don't catch any fish.  The fish may just not be biting.  However, every so often you catch a big one and it entices you to come back again.  So it goes with the horse player.  So is there a plan that can turn this around?

I hate to say this but many horse players go to the track unprepared.  Sure they may have their Daily Racing Form and maybe have done some handicapping.  However,  how many have thought seriously about how much money they are taking with them to bet with.  Have they thought though what's the appropriate 'bankroll' for today's betting.  Is the money in that bankroll what they can afford to lose or is this money they may need for other purposes.  It's important to know whether you're just going to bet to have fun or just for the action.  Or, are you going to win and increase your
bankroll or at least  keep your winnings for the day.

Here is an approach that can keep you from losing your whole bankroll and to keep the proceeds of your winning bets.  There's a saying at the track: "you can't win them all but you can lose them all".  Let's say you go to the track with a $200 bankroll and there are 10 races on the card for the day.  That gives you $20 on average that you can wager on each race.  The approach I'm suggesting is quite simple (but hard for some horse players to follow).  Decide ahead of time that you will only cycle through your bankroll one time.  Decide that you will keep the proceeds from each winning bet.  When you are right with your bets, collect the winnings and don't use that money to place more bets.  In other words don't recycle your winnings.  The worse thing you can do is to keep betting with the money you have won.  This is a recipe for losing your whole bankroll for the  day.  This is also a sign that you may be a real loser.

Be a winner and come home with your winnings for the day even if you have depleted part of your bankroll.

With the Kentucky Derby just around the corner

Here is an update on a blog article I wrote on August 25, 2012 titled "A Different Betting Strategy".

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-different-betting-strategy.html

It may sound crazy at first but bare with me for a bit. There are some interesting characteristics of horse racing that makes it different from other wagering venues like the stock or options market trading. There are a limited number of horses in a race (usually less than 14 but sometimes as many as 20 as in the Kentucky Derby). Quarter horse races are usually no more than 10 horses. Most races are completed under 2 minutes. The results and payoffs are made available immediately after a race is finished and declared official. You know right away whether you won or lost.

 Let's consider what would happen if you bet on all of the horses in a race to win. You would for sure win the bet. However, would you make money or lose money on this bet? I was first exposed to this idea a number of years ago when I was at the Kentucky Derby and by chance entered into a conversation with an older lady from Louisville who told me that she had won the Kentucky Derby for the last twenty- five years. My reaction at the time was ... really? How did you do that? She proceeded to tell me that she always bets every horse in the Kentucky Derby to win. She did tell me the truth now didn't she. This deserves bragging rights! I got to thinking later, just how much would you win or lose over the last 8 or 10 years if you bet like she did on the Kentucky Derby? I did a little research on the internet and here is what I found with $2 bets.

                                          Odds Paid Cost Win/Lose
2012 I'll Have Another 15.30 32.60 40.00 -7.40
2011 Animal Kingdom  8.00 18.00 40.00 -22.00
2010 Super Saver        20.90 43.80 40.00 +3.80
2009 Mine that Bird     50.60 103.20 40.00 +63.20 (+37.60)
2008 Big Brown           2.40 6.80 40.00 -33.20
2007 Street Sense        4.90 11.80 40.00 -28.20
2006 Barbaro              6.10 14.20 40.00 -25.80
2005 Giacomo            50.30 102.60 40.00 +62.60 (+13.00)

For the last 4 years you would be ahead $37.60. For the last 8 years you would still be ahead but only $13.00.

*****
[Update: 2013 Orb  5.40 12.80 40.00 -27.20 (+10.40) Last 5 years you'd still be ahead $10.40.  For the lst 9 years however, you'd be $14.20 behind still not bad considering the bragging rights you would have.]
*****

 I decided to go further with this idea in everyday betting. So I started with the hypothetical idea of betting all the horses in a race and then work backwards. [The usual approach is to find the horse(s) you think is going to win and then work forward.]

If you "bet them all" then you always win the bet. Whether you gain money or lose money on the bet is something else. For example let's assume there are 8 horses in a race we pick. If you bet 7 of the 8 horses to win then the only way you lose the bet is if the one horse you didn't bet wins. Otherwise you will win the bet. Again whether you make or lose money on the bet depends on the odds of the horse that wins. To illustrate, suppose the horse that won is one of the 7 you bet to win and the horse went off at 7/1 odds. On a $2 win bet the payoff would be $16. Your cost to bet the 7 horses would be $14. Your net winnings for this bet would be ($16 - 14 =) $2. If the horse that won went off at 3/1 odds, then your net would be ($8 - 14 =) -$6 or a loss of $6. In other words you won the bet but lost money.

 If we move backwards to betting 6 or 5 or 4 or 3 or 2 horses again depends on the horses you bet or didn't bet. It will also depend on the odds the winning horse went off at and what it cost you to make the bet. If you bet 5 of 8 horses to win then you lose the bet with 3 horses and win with 5.

 Looking at win betting in this way allows you to place a bet that takes into account a possible win with a long shot or a very long shot included in the bet. Long shots do come in but when and what do you look for?

The Kentucky Derby is a good example for "betting them all" as we showed earlier. Stakes Races are also a good place to look. But why? In the Kentucky Derby there is always a large field of horses, typically 20 horses. Many of these horses will have very long odds. There is not a horse in the field that the trainer for the horse does not believe that the horse can win. These are the finest cream of the crop 3 year olds. They will all be going for it.

 This is also true for Grade I, II, and III stakes races. The advantage with the stakes races is that there is usually far less then 20 horses in the race competing. This makes the cost of the bet a lot less. Take Saratoga this summer(2012). Race 8 on July 30th was the Shakespeare Caress Stakes. There were 8 horses in the race. Rosa Salvaie won and paid $41.40 on a $2 bet. The cost of the "bet them all" bet was $16. This was a $25.40 gain. Race 10 on August 5th was the Grade I Vanderbilt Handicap. There were 8 horses in this race. Poseidon's Warrior won and paid $74.50. This was a spectacular gain of $58.50 on a $2 bet. R1 on August 9th was the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes. There were 8 horses in this race also. Cat Feathers won this "Two And One Sixteenth Miles On The Hurdle" race and paid $48.60 for a $2 bet. This was a $32.60 gain.

The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.

A Winning Strategy

A trip to the race track or a session on your computer with Twinspires.com can be a winning one or a painful loss.  So let's take a look at both situations and see if we can identify what may be 'a winning strategy'.

First, a look at the 'behavior of betting' is in order because the individual's mind set is behind the bets he makes. The first thing to consider is the size of your bankroll.  Your bankroll is money you have put aside to bet with.  There is a saying that goes like this: "you can't win them all but you can lose them all".  What does this mean?  It means that it is quite possible to lose every bet you place.  If that should happen to you then you may end up with a zero bankroll.  This is the very worse situation.

We will look at a strategy that will put money bet, that we win with, back into our bankroll.  So when we win a bet we will put this winning ticket aside and not use it again during the current betting day.  Quite simply what this will do for us is to make sure any winnings we have we do not roll over into losses.  Rolling winnings back into betting again with the proceeds and losing is the way many a horse player ends up with empty pockets at the end of the day.

Putting winning tickets aside and back into you bankroll is a strategy for at least preserving part or all of your bankroll for the day.  The second step in a 'winning strategy' is to never bet more than your have in your bankroll for that day.  For example, if you start with a bankroll of $200 you might want to allocate $10 in bets for each race if you have 10 races on the card for that day.  That assumes you want to bet every race.  If you have some discipline in your betting you may not bet every race but choose races that you have the greatest confidence in winning.  You can measure the size of your bets but never exceed your bankroll for that day.

A profitable day is one where your winnings exceed your bankroll that you started with at the beginning of the day.  In fact you may want to stop betting when you reach a profitable level that meets your expectations.

May the racing gods be with you.

Where do you look for likely signs that a potential long shot could win in a horse race?

Let me enumerate 9 possibilities below.

1 In a race there should be horses with toteboard odds of at least 10/1 in the race.

2 When the favorite tote horse in the race is less than even odds.  The smaller the odds of the favorite the better.  Remember that the statistical odds of the favorite winning is 1 in 3 or about a third of the time.  Two thirds of the time one of the horses other than the favorite will win.

3 When at least one half of the horses in the race are going off at 10/1 odds or  greater.

4 Always consider the last race of the day on the card.  This is especially true if there are more than 10 horses in the race.

5 The last race in a pick 4,5 or 6.  Many times the last race is a spoiler.

6 A Grade I, II or III race with 10 or more horses.  Most of the time because these are the highest quality horses that any horse in the race on his best day could potentially win.

7 A stakes race with 10 or more horses.

8 Any Breeders Cup race with 10 or more horses.

9 The Kentucky Derby.

How to Structure a 10-cent Superfecta - for Fun and Profit

Many of my friends have asked me for a simple but effective approach to structuring a 10-cent superfecta.  Let me keep it as simple as possible and at the same time show the cost of the approach.

Since there are four positions that you have to decide on I just write down 1,2,3,4 (win,place,show,4th).  Starting with position 1, the win position, I look at all the horses in the race and determine the horses by post position that have the best chance of winning.  It could be just one horse or two horses or in some instances all the horses in the race.  For arguments sake, let's assume I can decide on one horse, say, the number 5 horse.

So for
Position 1: #5

Next, we look at position 2, the place position.  We scan through all the horses again and decide on our selections.  For example, let's say I believe
 there are 4 horses that have the best chance to place.  For example, 1,4,6,10.

So now we have
Position 1: #5
Position 2: #1, #4, #6, #10

To come up with the place position selections you can use many factors to help you decide.  Here are a few factors for those of you just starting out to consider: morning line, profit line, DRF last 4 races, jockey, trainer, owner, pedigree and tip sheets.


Positions 3 and 4 are simply the hardest to figure out so I like to bet all of the horses in the race for those positions. Taking this approach the cost of the bet may be a determining factor so let's look at this.

Our bet now is

Position 1: #5
Position 2: #1, #4, #6, #10
Position 3: ALL
Position 4: ALL

Depending on the number of horses (ALL) in the race a 10-cent superfecta will cost

#Horses  Cost
   7     $8.00
   8     $12.00
   9     $16.80
  10     $22.40
  11     $28.80
  12     $36.00

The 10-cent Superfecta Revisited

Use the 10-cent Superfecta in place of exactas and trifectas.

Some examples are: a $1 exacta 12/1234 costs $6.  A $2 exacta costs $12.  A $3 exacta $18, etc.  An equivalent 10-cent superfecta 12/1234/123456/123456 with 6 horses in the race would cost $7.20.  With 7 horses in the race 12/1234/1234567/1234567 would cost $12.  With 8 horses in the race 12/1234/12345678/12345678 would cost $18.

The payoffs from 10-cent superfectas can be sizable.  I have conducted an experiment at Remington Park where I have compared the payoffs from 10-cent superfectas with payoffs from exactas and trifectas of equal costs.

You may not have thought about it in this way but you can structure an exacta or a trifecta using a 10-cent superfecta so that if the exacta or the trifecta is a winning ticket then the 10-cent superfecta will be a winning ticket.   You ask "why would  want to do that"?  There is a good reason.  You see if there are 6-12 horses in a race the 10-cent superfecta will allow you to take advantage of horses that are really longshots that come in third or fourth to multiply the payoffs substantially.

Here are some results from May 26, 2013 at Remington Park. To verify these results you can go to Equibase.com, click on Results, then Historical Charts, select Remington Park and 5/26/2013 from the calendar.  Each race is listed and you can select one race at a time from the list.

The $1 exacta in the 4th race paid $9.40, but the 10-cent superfecta paid $51.42.  In race 7 the exacta paid $152.80, the 10-cent superfecta paid $3,347.40.  In race 8 the exacta paid $50.30, the 10-cent superfecta paid $2,440.  In race 9 the exacta paid $46.50, the 10-cent superfecta paid $93.  In race 10 the exacta paid $46.00, the 10-cent superfecta paid $109.30.  In race 11 the exacta paid $68, the 10-cent superfecta paid $309.20.

You may not have hit all of these exactas but I think it apparent that the 10-cent superfecta does have better payoffs in most instances.

 

Out of the Box Betting

The nice thing about betting on horses is that seemingly ridiculous bets can win a high percentage of the time.  Let's take the following statistic into consideration.  Empirical statistics show that the favorite horse in a race wins only about 1/3 of the time.  It doesn't matter if you choose the morning line favorite or the tote board favorite.  It makes sense then to study each race and figure out whether or not you believe the favorite will win.  If you believe the favorite will NOT win then the odds are with you because 2/3 of the time you will be right.

This approach to betting I'm going to call "Out of the Box Betting".  So how does one use this to his advantage?  Well, for one thing there is another statistic that can help.  Empirical statistics show that one of the first five morning line favorites will win about 85% of the time.  In a particular race that you are focused on, if you really think that the favorite will NOT win you can leave that horse out of your bet and bet just the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th morning line favorites to win.  Using $2 bets (for example) it would cost you ($2 x 4) $8 for the bet.  If the 2nd morning line favorite goes off at 3/1 or better you will at least get your money back ($2 x 3 + 2 = $8) from the bet.  If any of the 3rd, 4th, or 5th morning line favorites win you will make money on the bet.

There are an endless number of ways to play this "Out of the Box Betting" approach.  For example if you were to increase the size of the bet to $5.  This would cost you ($5 x 4) $20 for the bet.  If the 2nd morning line favorite goes off at 3/1 or better you will at least get your money back [($2 x 3 + 2 = $8) x 2.5 = $20] from the bet (compared to a $2 bet).  If any of the 3rd, 4th, or 5th morning line favorites win you will make 2.5 times the money on the bet.  Experience with this bet is important before you have confidence with increasing the size of the bet.  You must become good at determining whether the favorite will NOT win in a race.

Note that this bet will pay off about 50% (85-33=52) of the time.  The best way to prove this to yourself is to follow a track for at least a week making paper bets (not using any real money bets) and recording them, along with the results.  This will show you how good you are in picking races where the favorite doesn't win.  It will also show you whether you have made a profit or not after a week.  I always test my betting strategies on paper first before going live.

Positioning your bets to win

I have spent a lot of time over the years at the race track and I've talked with lots of horseplayers as well as observed their habits and actions.  Let me share with you some things I've noticed .  Have you ever seen a horseplayer pour over the Daily Racing Form searching for the horse that will win?  Have you ever seen the guy who rushes up to the teller window at the last minute to place a bet on a horse that he has finally decided on at the last minute?  Have you ever heard several horseplayers discuss after a race how they "shoulda, woulda, or coulda" won that race?  Have you ever seen the horseplayer with several tip sheets trying to determine what bet or bets he'll make?  Have you ever picked up losing tickets on the floor after a race and seen the exotic bets that were made with small amounts of money?  There are certainly as many ways to bet as you can possibly imagine.  Also notice that in every race someone places a bet on every horse that is in the race.  It doesn't matter what the odds are there is always someone who is placing a bet on that horse.  There are some horseplayers who love to bet high odd horses. One way to look at it is that no win bet is really a bad bet because any horse in the race could potentially win.  When you consider that a morning line favorite horse in a race wins only about 1/3 of the time.  This means that a non-favorite wins 2/3 of the time.

So how does one position his bets to win?  Over time there are three  principles that lead to success: careful study, personal knowledge, and gut feel.

Careful study should start with doing your homework ahead of time.  This, in the worse possible case, means don't just go to the track unprepared.  There are so many ways to prepare the night before or the day before using the (printed) Daily Racing Form or DRF.com or Equibase.com.  This will enhance your LUCK tremendously.

Personal knowledge is something you acquire by getting to know the horses, jockeys, trainers, owners, and tracks.  As a suggestion at any track you should become familar with the winningest jockeys and trainers.  Also get familar with the winningest jockey-trainer combinations.

With experience over extended periods of time you will acquire a 'gut feel'.  This is true of any endeaver but especially horse handicapping and betting.  You'll know you have enough experience when the 'feel' is apparent in your awareness.

I have numerous articles in my blog that tell you about many betting strategies as well as many handicapping approaches.  Browse through my blog and take a look.

The very best of luck to each of you.

Rolling $.50 Pick 3's

Continuing with the theme of "Better Payoffs from Exotics", let's look at pick 3's. They have become very popular at most tracks. In a way they are just a continuation of doubles. You will have to look at the particular track to see which races have pick 3's. You will also have to see what the minimums are for the pick 3's because a very popular minimum is $.50 although some tracks still have $1 minimums. The next thing to look for is rolling pick 3's. Like rolling doubles, rolling pick 3's are what were looking for. This gives us the opportunity to make more bets on a day's card.

Strategy #3: For race n,  n+1, n+2: (ML1, ML3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+2

 If we piggy back on my previous article where we showed that ML1 and ML3 both win about 30% of the time then a high return (but low cost) bet for Strategy #3 becomes for race n,  n+1, n+2: (ML1, ML3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1   WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+2.  For example if n=1 then the bet would be (ML1, ML3) race 1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 2 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 3.  Further if ML1=horse 3 and ML3=horse 7 in race 1 and ML1= horse 8 and ML3= horse 2 in race 2  and ML1= horse 5 and ML3= horse 6 in race 3 then (using a) $.50 bet would be a $.50 pick 3 in race 1: 3,7 WITH 8,2 WITH 5,6 .  This would cost $4 [(2 x 2 x2)/2].

Caveat Emptor:

Having studied each of the races on a day's card, there are usually 8, 9, or 10 races per day on a card at a track.  My empirical statistics have shown that some races work better than others for strategy #3 above.  I will break the races into two categories: #1 'the race follows the form most of the time' and #2 'the race that tends to be wide open'.  The races that tend to 'follow the form' are 1,2,3,7,8,and 9.  Races 4,5,and 6 tend to be 'wide open'.  I have found that using strategy #3 with races 4,5, and 6 are losing bets a large percentage of time.  Strategy #3 seems to be quite profitable with races 1,2,3,7,and 8.  Always look at races 4,5,and 6 very closely, particulary if there are over 10 horses in the race.  In fact be leery of any race on the card with over 10 horses in the race. Strategy #3 should not be used indiscriminately. 'Wide open' races are purposefully carded with lots of horses (>10) to make the race more difficult.

Better Payoffs from Exotics

In following up on my previous article, let's look at the kind of bets that transcend races.  The first one that I will discuss is the daily double.  In the not to distant past the daily double was just available in the first two races of the day.  It then became popular to include the last two races of the day.  It now has become so popular at many tracks that they now have what has become referred to as 'rolling doubles'.  You can bet them between any two races on the card.  So let's look carefully at what I will call 'Strategy #2', the rolling double strategy.

If we piggy back on my previous article where we showed that ML1 and ML3 both win about 30% of the time then a high return (but low cost) bet for Strategy #2 becomes for race n and n+1: (ML1, Ml3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1.  For example if n=1 then the bet would be (ML1, ML3) race 1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 2.  Further if ML1=horse 3 and ML3=horse 7 in race 1 and Ml1= horse 8 and ML3= horse 2 in race 2 then (using a) $2 bet would be a $2 daily double in race 1: 3,7 WITH 8,2.  This would cost $8.

Strategy #2: (ML1, Ml3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1

Caveat Emptor:

I have also studied each of the races on a day's card.  There are usually 8, 9, or 10 races per day on a card at a track.  My empirical statistics have shown that some races work better than others for strategy #2 above.  I will break the races into two categories: #1 'the race follows the form most of the time' and #2 'the race that tends to be wide open'.  The races that tend to 'follow the form' are 1,2,3,7,8,and 9.  Races 4,5,and 6 tend to be 'wide open'.  I have found that using strategy #2 with races 4,5, and 6 are losing bets a large percentage of time.  Strategy #2 seems to be quite profitable with races 1,2,3,7,and 8.  Always look at races 4,5,and 6 very closely, particulary if there are over 10 horses in the race.  In fact be leery of any race on the card with over 10 horses in the race. Strategy #2 should not be used indiscriminately. 'Wide open' races are purposefully carded with lots of horses (>10) to make the race more difficult.

Horse Betting for Profit

Let's look at 'horse betting' like you would a business.  In any business you have to know some statistics related to the business.  You have to know the risk involved and where the odds are in your favor.  You also need a business plan.

I have spent time at the race track just observing the nature of people with respect to how they bet. You learn a lot about what NOT to do by picking up tickets on the floor after a race to see what LOSING bets were made for that race.  It is very revealing.  Try it some time.

For years I have collected 'empirical statistics' at specific tracks as well as across tracks. One statistic that holds true for most tracks in the US and Canada is that the morning line favorite in the 'long run' wins between 28 and 32 percent of the time depending on the track.  This is very useful if you looking at 'horse betting' as you would in a business.  There is one other 'empirical statistic' to go along with this one that is very important and most people are completely unaware of.  Here it is.  The third morning line favorite wins between 25 and 30 percent of the time in the 'long run'.  This is true across tracks.  Now how can this information be used to structure a betting pattern that can lead to a 'long run' profit if followed consistently?

To be a bit more specific let me introduce some symbols and definitions.  Let's define the 'morning line favorite' with ML1 and the 'third morning line favorite' with ML3.  From the empirical statistics above (of all the horses in a race) ML3 will win almost as often as ML1.  Both win about 30% of the time.  Just knowing these two empirical statistics gives you important information on structuring your bets inorder to have the odds in your favor.

Using the notation ML1,ML2,ML3,ML4,...,MLn 'n' stands for 'the number of horses in the race'. If n=10, then there are 10 horses in the race etc.  The morning line odds are always readily available for any race at any track. I have chosen, over the years, to stick with the morning line odds because of this fact.  [Remember we're considering 'betting' as a business.]  We need data that is always available and reliable.

Let me point out an observation that should be obvious.  ML3 will always be larger than ML1 (ML3>ML1).  Therefore the payoffs for ML3 are always larger.  As an example, ML1 might be 7/5 and ML3 might be 7/2. Don't be fooled, sometimes when the horse that starts out as the third morning line favorite (ML3) suddenly becomes the 'tote board favorite' when large amounts of money are placed on the ML3 horse before post time.

So let's take the information we have layed out above and propose a 'business plan strategy'.

Strategy #1: Place a $3 to win on the horse ML3 and a $5 to show on the horse ML1.

"Over the long run" this approach works well.  Note that depending on your tolerance for bet size this could be $6 to win on ML3 and $10 to show on ML1 or $30 to win on ML3 and $50 to show on ML1.  You decide.  I have tested the ratio over time and it is about right for a "long run" return on investment (ROI) of 15 to 20%.

Caveat Emptor:

I have also studied each of the races on a day's card.  There are usually 8, 9, or 10 races /day on a card at a track.  My empirical statistics have shown that some races work better than others for strategy #1 above.  I will break the races into two categories: #1 'the race follows the form most of the time' and #2 'the race that tends to be wide open'.  The races that tend to follow the form are 1,2,3,7,8,and 9.  Races 4,5,and 6 tend to be wide open.  I have found that using strategy #1 with races 4,5, and 6 are losing bets a large percentage of time.  Strategy #1 seems to be quite profitable with races 1,2,3,7,8 and 9.  Always look at races 4,5,and 6 very closely, particulary if there are over 10 horses in the race.  In fact be leery of any race on the card with over 10 horses in the race. Strategy #1 should not be used indiscriminately. 'Wide open' races are purposefully carded with lots of horses (>10) to make the race more difficult.

2012 Breeders Cup Races Fast Approaching

The 2012 Breeders Cup Races are fast approaching.  These races have the horses that are the cream of the crop - they are the best of the best.  This fact alone means that any horse in the race can win thus handicapping is, to say the least, very difficult.

 I have kept a very detail set of notes and empirical statistics from the 2011 BC races.  It's many times very informative to see what happened last year.  It should be noted that what happens this year may be very different than what happened last year, however, knowing the potential possibility of long shots winning in any race is a very important part of your wagering strategy.

Let me summarize last year's results and point out some of the interesting things that happened.  In the 2011 BC races out of 9 races there was only one race where the favorite won.  It was not a day to bet favorites.  All 9 races had 9 or more horses in each race, some had 14.  The favorite that did win was in the 6th race the BC Turf Sprint.  Corey Nakatani rode Regally Ready for the win.  A morning line 3/1 odds favorite that paid $6.60 to win. All the other races were won by long shots and in two of the races they were very long shots, 30/1 morning line.  These two races had Black Swan long shots that won.  They were races 3 and 10. Race 3 was the BC Marathon, a 17 furlong race won by Afleet Again and ridden by Corneilio Velasquez and paid for a $2 win bet $85.20.  Race 10 was the BC Mile.  It was won by another 30/1 morning line horse.  Jon Court rode Court Vision for the win and a $2 bet paid $131.60.

Although race 2 was not one of the Breeders Cup races, Hall of Fame Jockey Mike Smith won 3 races: races 2, 5, and 11. Mike won race 5, the BC Turf Sprint, aboard Amazombie a 5/1 morning line that paid $17.80.  He also won race 11 the BC Classic riding Drosselmeyer, a 15/1 morning line that paid $31.60 to win.

The Europeans won 2 races.  Race 4 was the BC Juvenile Turf.  Ryan Moore rode Wrote a 12/1 morning line for the win that paid $25.50.  Race 8 was the BC Turf.  J. O'Brien rode St Nicholas Abbey, a 9/2 morning line, for the win which paid $15.60.

Being from Oklahoma where Donnie Von Hemel has won the training title numerous times at Remington Park, race 7 was particularly impressive to me because Caleb's Posse came roaring to the finish to win.  Donnie was the horse's trainer and the horse was owned by Oklahoman Don McNeill.  The horse was named for Don McNeill's grandson.  Don McNeill was unable to be there because he is suffering from leukemia.  Race 7 was the BC Dirt Mile.  Caleb's Posse was ridden by Rajiv Maragh and paid $15.60 to win.

Race 9 was the BC Juvenile.  Ramon Dominguez rode Hansen to the win over Union Rags and paid $16.20 for the win.

Here are the summary of results in order by race with race number, morning line, and $2 win payoff.

Race 3 30/1 $85.20, Race 4 12/1 $25.50, Race 5 5/1  $17.80, Race 6 3/1 $6.60, Race 7 5/1 $17.80, Race 8 9/2 $15.60, Race 9  10/1 $16.20,  Race 10 30/1 $131.60, Race 11 15/1 $31.60

Let's look at some "what if you had" situations.

If you rank the morning lines odds for each race from lowest to highest odds here is one way to look at the results.  Associate ML1 with the morning line favorite,  ML2 is the second morning line favorite, ML5 is the 5th morning line favorite, etc.  If you had bet $2 to win on ML1,ML2,ML3,ML4,ML5 that would be a $10 bet in each race. You would have won in races 5,6,7,8,9 for a total of $74.00. Since you don't know which races will win you have to bet all nine races.  The cost for all 9 races would have been $90.00.  A loss of $16.  About 60% of the time ML1 to ML5 do win.

Instead, 'What if ' you had bet $2 win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 for those races with 10 or more horses in the race.  In the races with 10 to 14 horses in the race which would include races 3,4,6,9,10,11 if you had bet $2 to win on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 you would have won the 3rd and the 10th race.  The 3rd paid $85.20 and the 10th paid $131.60.  Actually you would have bet ML10,ML11 a $4 bet on race 3.  You would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13,ML14 a $10 bet on race 4.  On race 6 you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 an $8 bet. Race 9 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 another $8 bet. Race 10 had 13 horses so you would have bet ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13 again another $8 bet.  In Race 11 you would have bet another $8 on ML10,ML11,ML12,ML13.  This was a total of $42 to win ($85.20 + $131.60 =) $216.80.

Now 'what if' you had "bet 'em all"  in each race with a $2 win bet, how would you have made out?  Well as it turns out it would have cost you $206.00.  You would have won $347.90. A Return On Investment (ROI) of 69%.  If you look at my previous article on my blog you would see that under the proper circumstances with 'wide open races' and 'very high class horses', this is not a bad strategy and can be quite profitable.

Good luck and have fun this year on November 3rd.

A Different Betting Strategy

It may sound crazy at first but bare with me for a bit. There are some interesting characteristics of horse racing that makes it different from other wagering venues like the stock or options market trading. There are a limited number of horses in a race (usually less than 14 but sometimes as many as 20 as in the Kentucky Derby). Quarter horse races are usually no more than 10 horses. Most races are completed under 2 minutes. The results and payoffs are made available immediately after a race is finished and declared official. You know right away whether you won or lost.

 Let's consider what would happen if you bet on all of the horses in a race to win. You would for sure win the bet. However, would you make money or lose money on this bet? I was first exposed to this idea a number of years ago when I was at the Kentucky Derby and by chance entered into a conversation with an older lady from Louisville who told me that she had won the Kentucky Derby for the last twenty- five years. My reaction at the time was ... really? How did you do that? She proceeded to tell me that she always bets every horse in the Kentucky Derby to win. She did tell me the truth now didn't she. This deserves bragging rights! I got to thinking later, just how much would you win or lose over the last 8 or 10 years if you bet like she did on the Kentucky Derby? I did a little research on the internet and here is what I found with $2 bets.

                                          Odds Paid Cost Win/Lose
2012 I'll Have Another 15.30 32.60 40.00 -7.40
2011 Animal Kingdom  8.00 18.00 40.00 -22.00
2010 Super Saver        20.90 43.80 40.00 +3.80
2009 Mine that Bird     50.60 103.20 40.00 +63.20 (+37.60)
2008 Big Brown           2.40 6.80 40.00 -33.20
2007 Street Sense        4.90 11.80 40.00 -28.20
2006 Barbaro              6.10 14.20 40.00 -25.80
2005 Giacomo            50.30 102.60 40.00 +62.60 (+13.00)

For the last 4 years you would be ahead $37.60. For the last 8 years you would still be ahead but only $13.00.

 I decided to go further with this idea in everyday betting. So I started with the hypothetical idea of betting all the horses in a race and then work backwards. [The usual approach is to find the horse(s) you think is going to win and then work forward.]

If you "bet them all" then you always win the bet. Whether you gain money or lose money on the bet is something else. For example let's assume there are 8 horses in a race we pick. If you bet 7 of the 8 horses to win then the only way you lose the bet is if the one horse you didn't bet wins. Otherwise you will win the bet. Again whether you make or lose money on the bet depends on the odds of the horse that wins. To illustrate, suppose the horse that won is one of the 7 you bet to win and the horse went off at 7/1 odds. On a $2 win bet the payoff would be $16. Your cost to bet the 7 horses would be $14. Your net winnings for this bet would be ($16 - 14 =) $2. If the horse that won went off at 3/1 odds, then your net would be ($8 - 14 =) -$6 or a loss of $6. In other words you won the bet but lost money.

 If we move backwards to betting 6 or 5 or 4 or 3 or 2 horses again depends on the horses you bet or didn't bet. It will also depend on the odds the winning horse went off at and what it cost you to make the bet. If you bet 5 of 8 horses to win then you lose the bet with 3 horses and win with 5.

 Looking at win betting in this way allows you to place a bet that takes into account a possible win with a long shot or a very long shot included in the bet. Long shots do come in but when and what do you look for?

The Kentucky Derby is a good example for "betting them all" as we showed earlier. Stakes Races are also a good place to look. But why? In the Kentucky Derby there is always a large field of horses, typically 20 horses. Many of these horses will have very long odds. There is not a horse in the field that the trainer for the horse does not believe that the horse can win. These are the finest cream of the crop 3 year olds. They will all be going for it.

 This is also true for Grade I, II, and III stakes races. The advantage with the stakes races is that there is usually far less then 20 horses in the race competing. This makes the cost of the bet a lot less. Take Saratoga this summer. Race 8 on July 30th was the Shakespeare Caress Stakes. There were 8 horses in the race. Rosa Salvaie won and paid $41.40 on a $2 bet. The cost of the "bet them all" bet was $16. This was a $25.40 gain. Race 10 on August 5th was the Grade I Vanderbilt Handicap. There were 8 horses in this race. Poseidon's Warrior won and paid $74.50. This was a spectacular gain of $58.50 on a $2 bet. R1 on August 9th was the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes. There were 8 horses in this race also. Cat Feathers won this "Two And One Sixteenth Miles On The Hurdle" race and paid $48.60 for a $2 bet. This was a $32.60 gain.

The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.

The Spring Quarterhorse Meet at Remington Park 2011

The Spring Quarterhorse Meet at Remington Park has begun on March 2nd. The first few days have been devoted mostly to qualifying trials for the upcoming stakes races. The 2 year olds have been competing at 300 yards for the Oklahoma Futurity. The 3 year olds have been competing at 350 yards for the Oklahoma Derby.

This meet we're going to be keeping track of some of the statistics related to our success last year with side-by-side betting that we have concentrated on in the past. I'll also be looking in this meet for horses that will be hooking up as side-by-side pairs as well as three or four horses that may be hooking up to create a race within a race. We'll be looking for ways to detect these patterns. Hopefully, the frequency will occur often enough to make the patterns of this type betting profitable. I'll be reporting on this as the meet proceeds and I'll give you some statistics to show the results.

It will also be important this time to show how to preserve your betting capital by detecting those races to avoid. This is as important as finding those races that will be profitable.

******************************************************************************

In the first 18 racing days of the 2011 Quarter Horse meet there have been 51 side-by-side bet results.  This is on average 2.83 side-by-side bet results per day. The average exacta payoff is $64.70. G R Carter was involved with either the win or place position of the side-by-side bet 17 out of 51 times. That's one third of the
time. Carter's average exacta payoff was $47.41. His highest exacta payoff was
$144.80 and the lowest was $7.80.

If Jimmy Brooks, and Larry Payne were included then 60% of the side-by-side bet
payouts involved these three. 6 out of 51 were Black Swan results. The average
Black Swan payout was $172.23.

The results for the first 17 days are found at this link.
http://billwinters.org/2011QuarterHorseMeet/SideBySideResults.pdf/

Previously in my blog for those unfamilar with 'Side-by-side Betting' here are
several articles about
"Side-By-Side Quarter Horse Bets"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/side-by-side-quarter-horse-bets.html,

"Remington Park Quarterhorse Side-by-side Results"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/remington-park-quarterhorse-side-by.html,

"Side-by-side Betting with Trifectas"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/03/side-by-side-betting-with-trifectas.html,

"Side-by-side Betting with Ten Cent Superfectas"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2010/04/side-by-side-betting-with-ten-cent.html and

"Black Swan Betting"

http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2009/08/black-swan-betting.html