Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby. Show all posts
Monday, May 13, 2019
The Hedge Bet for the Kentucky Derby
Kentucky Derby 2019 was highly unusual and the outcome was very disappointing to tens of thousands of fans at Churchill Downs on Saturday May 4th. At first after the race was over it looked as Maximum Security #7 was the winner. The jockey, the trainer and the fans were celebrating. Then the stewards took an unusually long look at the last part of the race. It seemed like forever but finally the stewards came to a decision. They disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th. The decision was made to disqualify Maximum Security for interference with War of Will #1 and the chain reaction with Bodepress #21 and Long Range Toddy #18. Country House #20 who came in second was delared the winner, #13 Code of Honor who was third became the place horse and #8 Tacitus coming in fourth became the show horse. This is the first time in Kentucky Derby history that such an outcome like this has ever occured.
If Maximum Security was left as the winner there probably would have been no Kentucky Derby controversy.
I want to illustrate and explain how my Kentucky Derby bets were structured this year so let me refer back to the article "A Different Betting Strategy"
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-different-betting-strategy.html
on my blog that was published on August 25, 2012. I showed in this article that it can be very profitable in certain wide open races that betting all the horses in the race makes sense. Infact it can be a very good hedge bet. The last paragraph in this 2012 article is the following:
The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.
I bet the Kentucky Derby each year with $100 to $200 in bets. My hedge bet each year is to bet all the horses to win. I usually have one or more superfecta bets, trifecta and exacta bets along with my hedge bet. This year here were my bets.
$1 superfecta 16/5,17/5,8,17/5,7,8,10,13,14,17 cost $20
$2 Win/Place/Show 7 cost $6
$5 Win 5, 6, 7, 8 cost $20
$1 exacta box 7, 8, 16 cost $6
$1 exacta box 5, 7, 8 cost $6
$1 exacta box 5, 16, 17 cost $6
$1 exacta box 5, 7, 8, 16 cost $20
$2 Win/Place/Show 5, 6, 10, 16, 17 $30
$2 Win All cost $38
I felt that Bob Baffert had three horses 16, 17, 5 in the derby so my superfecta, exacta and win, place and show bets were structured around these 3 horses. I had Maximum Security #7 to win, place and show as well as in several exacta box bets. The total cost of my bets was $152. When the outcome was finally declared my hedge bet had #20 Country House as the winner and paid $132.40. All of my other bets were worthless, however I ended the race only down $19.60.
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
The Movie 50/1
If you love horse racing you'll love this movie. My wife and I happened to be in Louisville the first Saturday in May 2009 for the Kentucky Derby. We witnessed 'Mine that Bird' coming along the rail from last to first being ridden by Calvin Borel (he's sometimes referred to as Calvin Bo-rail). Calvin is a fantastic rider at Churchill Downs and rides the rail with many of his mounts. He has won the Kentucky Derby three times in four consecutive years.
The story behind 'Mine that Byrd' is just remarkable. He was transported by horse van from New Mexico to Louisville just days before the Kentucky Derby. They made fun of the 'cowboys' who trained and owned him. He turned the tables on them in one of the most exciting Kentucky Derbys ever.
Now each Kentucky Derby day I watch the movie Again! I never get tired of watching 50/1.
The story behind 'Mine that Byrd' is just remarkable. He was transported by horse van from New Mexico to Louisville just days before the Kentucky Derby. They made fun of the 'cowboys' who trained and owned him. He turned the tables on them in one of the most exciting Kentucky Derbys ever.
Now each Kentucky Derby day I watch the movie Again! I never get tired of watching 50/1.
Thursday, April 10, 2014
With the Kentucky Derby just around the corner
Here is an update on a blog article I wrote on August 25, 2012 titled "A Different Betting Strategy".
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-different-betting-strategy.html
It may sound crazy at first but bare with me for a bit. There are some interesting characteristics of horse racing that makes it different from other wagering venues like the stock or options market trading. There are a limited number of horses in a race (usually less than 14 but sometimes as many as 20 as in the Kentucky Derby). Quarter horse races are usually no more than 10 horses. Most races are completed under 2 minutes. The results and payoffs are made available immediately after a race is finished and declared official. You know right away whether you won or lost.
Let's consider what would happen if you bet on all of the horses in a race to win. You would for sure win the bet. However, would you make money or lose money on this bet? I was first exposed to this idea a number of years ago when I was at the Kentucky Derby and by chance entered into a conversation with an older lady from Louisville who told me that she had won the Kentucky Derby for the last twenty- five years. My reaction at the time was ... really? How did you do that? She proceeded to tell me that she always bets every horse in the Kentucky Derby to win. She did tell me the truth now didn't she. This deserves bragging rights! I got to thinking later, just how much would you win or lose over the last 8 or 10 years if you bet like she did on the Kentucky Derby? I did a little research on the internet and here is what I found with $2 bets.
Odds Paid Cost Win/Lose
2012 I'll Have Another 15.30 32.60 40.00 -7.40
2011 Animal Kingdom 8.00 18.00 40.00 -22.00
2010 Super Saver 20.90 43.80 40.00 +3.80
2009 Mine that Bird 50.60 103.20 40.00 +63.20 (+37.60)
2008 Big Brown 2.40 6.80 40.00 -33.20
2007 Street Sense 4.90 11.80 40.00 -28.20
2006 Barbaro 6.10 14.20 40.00 -25.80
2005 Giacomo 50.30 102.60 40.00 +62.60 (+13.00)
For the last 4 years you would be ahead $37.60. For the last 8 years you would still be ahead but only $13.00.
*****
[Update: 2013 Orb 5.40 12.80 40.00 -27.20 (+10.40) Last 5 years you'd still be ahead $10.40. For the lst 9 years however, you'd be $14.20 behind still not bad considering the bragging rights you would have.]
*****
I decided to go further with this idea in everyday betting. So I started with the hypothetical idea of betting all the horses in a race and then work backwards. [The usual approach is to find the horse(s) you think is going to win and then work forward.]
If you "bet them all" then you always win the bet. Whether you gain money or lose money on the bet is something else. For example let's assume there are 8 horses in a race we pick. If you bet 7 of the 8 horses to win then the only way you lose the bet is if the one horse you didn't bet wins. Otherwise you will win the bet. Again whether you make or lose money on the bet depends on the odds of the horse that wins. To illustrate, suppose the horse that won is one of the 7 you bet to win and the horse went off at 7/1 odds. On a $2 win bet the payoff would be $16. Your cost to bet the 7 horses would be $14. Your net winnings for this bet would be ($16 - 14 =) $2. If the horse that won went off at 3/1 odds, then your net would be ($8 - 14 =) -$6 or a loss of $6. In other words you won the bet but lost money.
If we move backwards to betting 6 or 5 or 4 or 3 or 2 horses again depends on the horses you bet or didn't bet. It will also depend on the odds the winning horse went off at and what it cost you to make the bet. If you bet 5 of 8 horses to win then you lose the bet with 3 horses and win with 5.
Looking at win betting in this way allows you to place a bet that takes into account a possible win with a long shot or a very long shot included in the bet. Long shots do come in but when and what do you look for?
The Kentucky Derby is a good example for "betting them all" as we showed earlier. Stakes Races are also a good place to look. But why? In the Kentucky Derby there is always a large field of horses, typically 20 horses. Many of these horses will have very long odds. There is not a horse in the field that the trainer for the horse does not believe that the horse can win. These are the finest cream of the crop 3 year olds. They will all be going for it.
This is also true for Grade I, II, and III stakes races. The advantage with the stakes races is that there is usually far less then 20 horses in the race competing. This makes the cost of the bet a lot less. Take Saratoga this summer(2012). Race 8 on July 30th was the Shakespeare Caress Stakes. There were 8 horses in the race. Rosa Salvaie won and paid $41.40 on a $2 bet. The cost of the "bet them all" bet was $16. This was a $25.40 gain. Race 10 on August 5th was the Grade I Vanderbilt Handicap. There were 8 horses in this race. Poseidon's Warrior won and paid $74.50. This was a spectacular gain of $58.50 on a $2 bet. R1 on August 9th was the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes. There were 8 horses in this race also. Cat Feathers won this "Two And One Sixteenth Miles On The Hurdle" race and paid $48.60 for a $2 bet. This was a $32.60 gain.
The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.
http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2012/08/a-different-betting-strategy.html
It may sound crazy at first but bare with me for a bit. There are some interesting characteristics of horse racing that makes it different from other wagering venues like the stock or options market trading. There are a limited number of horses in a race (usually less than 14 but sometimes as many as 20 as in the Kentucky Derby). Quarter horse races are usually no more than 10 horses. Most races are completed under 2 minutes. The results and payoffs are made available immediately after a race is finished and declared official. You know right away whether you won or lost.
Let's consider what would happen if you bet on all of the horses in a race to win. You would for sure win the bet. However, would you make money or lose money on this bet? I was first exposed to this idea a number of years ago when I was at the Kentucky Derby and by chance entered into a conversation with an older lady from Louisville who told me that she had won the Kentucky Derby for the last twenty- five years. My reaction at the time was ... really? How did you do that? She proceeded to tell me that she always bets every horse in the Kentucky Derby to win. She did tell me the truth now didn't she. This deserves bragging rights! I got to thinking later, just how much would you win or lose over the last 8 or 10 years if you bet like she did on the Kentucky Derby? I did a little research on the internet and here is what I found with $2 bets.
Odds Paid Cost Win/Lose
2012 I'll Have Another 15.30 32.60 40.00 -7.40
2011 Animal Kingdom 8.00 18.00 40.00 -22.00
2010 Super Saver 20.90 43.80 40.00 +3.80
2009 Mine that Bird 50.60 103.20 40.00 +63.20 (+37.60)
2008 Big Brown 2.40 6.80 40.00 -33.20
2007 Street Sense 4.90 11.80 40.00 -28.20
2006 Barbaro 6.10 14.20 40.00 -25.80
2005 Giacomo 50.30 102.60 40.00 +62.60 (+13.00)
For the last 4 years you would be ahead $37.60. For the last 8 years you would still be ahead but only $13.00.
*****
[Update: 2013 Orb 5.40 12.80 40.00 -27.20 (+10.40) Last 5 years you'd still be ahead $10.40. For the lst 9 years however, you'd be $14.20 behind still not bad considering the bragging rights you would have.]
*****
I decided to go further with this idea in everyday betting. So I started with the hypothetical idea of betting all the horses in a race and then work backwards. [The usual approach is to find the horse(s) you think is going to win and then work forward.]
If you "bet them all" then you always win the bet. Whether you gain money or lose money on the bet is something else. For example let's assume there are 8 horses in a race we pick. If you bet 7 of the 8 horses to win then the only way you lose the bet is if the one horse you didn't bet wins. Otherwise you will win the bet. Again whether you make or lose money on the bet depends on the odds of the horse that wins. To illustrate, suppose the horse that won is one of the 7 you bet to win and the horse went off at 7/1 odds. On a $2 win bet the payoff would be $16. Your cost to bet the 7 horses would be $14. Your net winnings for this bet would be ($16 - 14 =) $2. If the horse that won went off at 3/1 odds, then your net would be ($8 - 14 =) -$6 or a loss of $6. In other words you won the bet but lost money.
If we move backwards to betting 6 or 5 or 4 or 3 or 2 horses again depends on the horses you bet or didn't bet. It will also depend on the odds the winning horse went off at and what it cost you to make the bet. If you bet 5 of 8 horses to win then you lose the bet with 3 horses and win with 5.
Looking at win betting in this way allows you to place a bet that takes into account a possible win with a long shot or a very long shot included in the bet. Long shots do come in but when and what do you look for?
The Kentucky Derby is a good example for "betting them all" as we showed earlier. Stakes Races are also a good place to look. But why? In the Kentucky Derby there is always a large field of horses, typically 20 horses. Many of these horses will have very long odds. There is not a horse in the field that the trainer for the horse does not believe that the horse can win. These are the finest cream of the crop 3 year olds. They will all be going for it.
This is also true for Grade I, II, and III stakes races. The advantage with the stakes races is that there is usually far less then 20 horses in the race competing. This makes the cost of the bet a lot less. Take Saratoga this summer(2012). Race 8 on July 30th was the Shakespeare Caress Stakes. There were 8 horses in the race. Rosa Salvaie won and paid $41.40 on a $2 bet. The cost of the "bet them all" bet was $16. This was a $25.40 gain. Race 10 on August 5th was the Grade I Vanderbilt Handicap. There were 8 horses in this race. Poseidon's Warrior won and paid $74.50. This was a spectacular gain of $58.50 on a $2 bet. R1 on August 9th was the Mrs. Ogden Phipps Stakes. There were 8 horses in this race also. Cat Feathers won this "Two And One Sixteenth Miles On The Hurdle" race and paid $48.60 for a $2 bet. This was a $32.60 gain.
The trick to "betting them all" is to be very selective and do your homework ahead of time. This is not a bet for just any race. It's a bet where the race looks to be 'wide open'and has the highest quality horses in the race (potentially any horse in the race could win). It's a judgement call, granted, but with experience you can get a feel for 'wide open'races. High priced stakes races are very fertile ground in which to look. Have fun and good luck.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)