Wednesday, April 9, 2008

A 10-cent Superfecta Experiment

I have been running a poll on my blog "What is your success with 10 cent superfectas?". Take a look on the left side of my blog. The results so far are interesting. 45% are losing money using the 10-cent superfecta bet. 27% are making a net return of 0 to 50%. 18% are getting a net gain of 50 to 100% gain. 10% are getting over 100% net gain.

I have some useful statistics that can help with an experiment I ran today (April 8, 2008) at Beulah Race Track. If you use the Profit Line (PL), available at Twinspires.com, I have found that of the top three PL picks, one of the three will win better than 60% of the time. I have therefore formulated a High Probability 10-cent Superfecta bet that looks like this.

PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL/ALL/ALL (ALL = PL1,PL2,PL3,PL4,PL5,PL6) If there are just 6 horses in the race then ALL is all of the horses in the race. If there are more than 6 horses then use the first six Ranked PL horses. In my experiment I chose not to go above an $18 bet.

A second bet that I wanted to test was what I called the Lower Cost Obvious Bet. It again involves the first six Ranked PL horses. The Lower Cost 10-cent Superfecta bet looks like this. PL1/ALL/ALL/ALL It costs $6.

Go to the link below to see how the first and second races were bet.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820081.jpg

I followed the same pattern for each race. Go to the next link below to see the bets on races 3 and 4.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820082.jpg

The links to races 5 and 6 follow next.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820083.jpg

Races 7 and 8 are next.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820084.jpg

Race 9 follows and that completes the card for the day.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr820085.jpg

What is most revealing is SUMMARY of results for the day. Click the link below to view the SUMMARY.

http://billwinters.org/BeulahApr82008Summary.jpg

The 10-cent super PL1,PL2,PL3/ALL/ALL/ALL paid in 7 of nine races. The Lower Cost 10-cent Superfecta bet PL1/ALL/ALL/ALL paid in only 2 races. This shows you the difference between an $18 bet and a $6 bet.

The net gain for the day was $85.21.

I hope that some of you horseplayers out there will try this approach and let me know how you do. I will be doing the same for some of the larger tracks and report on this at a later time.

Good Luck and God Bless.

1 comment:

jose A. garcia said...

Hey nice blog on the 10 cent superfecta system
I myself have experimented with many different ways to make a net gain with this system .back when i didnt know much, I used to box all my horses and waste a ton of money on superfectas at 1 dollar or 50 cents, but now i have many different ways in using this system at the races. I have never lost in 2 years thanks to this 10 cent superfecta bet.
one example:

1st slot
Get the top 2 horses in a race on top
----
2nd slot
next place the top 3 horses in the race to come in 2nd
------
3rd slot
If the field is under 8 horses go with ALL, if its 10 or more horses go with 3-5 horses,
-------
4th slot
lastly Go with ALL if theres a small field, if there's a lot of horse in the race then go with 5 horses instead

this will result in an almost 75% win everytime and you spend around 5 dollars or less

most winnings with 10 cent superfectas average in around 10-40 dollars in average odds

races with High odds coming in result in 100+ or greater