Better Payoffs from Exotics

In following up on my previous article, let's look at the kind of bets that transcend races.  The first one that I will discuss is the daily double.  In the not to distant past the daily double was just available in the first two races of the day.  It then became popular to include the last two races of the day.  It now has become so popular at many tracks that they now have what has become referred to as 'rolling doubles'.  You can bet them between any two races on the card.  So let's look carefully at what I will call 'Strategy #2', the rolling double strategy.

If we piggy back on my previous article where we showed that ML1 and ML3 both win about 30% of the time then a high return (but low cost) bet for Strategy #2 becomes for race n and n+1: (ML1, Ml3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1.  For example if n=1 then the bet would be (ML1, ML3) race 1 WITH (ML1, ML3) race 2.  Further if ML1=horse 3 and ML3=horse 7 in race 1 and Ml1= horse 8 and ML3= horse 2 in race 2 then (using a) $2 bet would be a $2 daily double in race 1: 3,7 WITH 8,2.  This would cost $8.

Strategy #2: (ML1, Ml3) race n WITH (ML1, ML3) race n+1

Caveat Emptor:

I have also studied each of the races on a day's card.  There are usually 8, 9, or 10 races per day on a card at a track.  My empirical statistics have shown that some races work better than others for strategy #2 above.  I will break the races into two categories: #1 'the race follows the form most of the time' and #2 'the race that tends to be wide open'.  The races that tend to 'follow the form' are 1,2,3,7,8,and 9.  Races 4,5,and 6 tend to be 'wide open'.  I have found that using strategy #2 with races 4,5, and 6 are losing bets a large percentage of time.  Strategy #2 seems to be quite profitable with races 1,2,3,7,and 8.  Always look at races 4,5,and 6 very closely, particulary if there are over 10 horses in the race.  In fact be leery of any race on the card with over 10 horses in the race. Strategy #2 should not be used indiscriminately. 'Wide open' races are purposefully carded with lots of horses (>10) to make the race more difficult.